Not too long ago, I thought up a silly rule change that would be extremely beneficial to teams like the Kansas City Royals. Every three years, two American League teams get swapped for two National League teams in their divisional counterpart. Sort of like the WWE Draft Lottery, where five superstars get swapped between Raw and Smackdown.
What would this accomplish? Right now, regardless of their decision making, the Royals will always be stuck in AL-Purgatory. The Cold War between the Red Sox and the Yankees cause every other AL team to spend more money to keep up. The average American League payroll was over $90 million in 2007. In the National League, it was slightly higher than $75 million. The NL lacks the megapowers driving up the payrolls of the rest of the league. Teams like the Mets and the Dodgers have the ability to create this effect, but neither team has been consistently good in their decision making of late, so teams aren't forced to spend at the same level to compete them. This makes it much tougher to get out of the AL’s basement.
Now let’s put my rule into effect for 2010. Switch Kansas City with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wouldn’t it feel like Kansas City’s a little bit closer to relevance? Rather than being nowhere near a playoff spot, you’d start to believe that they are a few moves away from competing for the NL Central or the Wild Card. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are going to be studs. Joakim Soria solidified himself as a very solid closer, proving to be one of the best Rule-5 draft picks in recent memory. By that time, RHP Luke Hochevar, SS Mike Moutsakas, and their 2008 selection will be joining them. A few more, wise free-agent signings by Dayton Moore, (Gil Meche had a great 2007 and I expect Jose Guillen to do the same, now that he has left Safeco Park) and you have the makings of a very intriguing team. Instead, they’ll hover around AL-mediocrity while Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago battle it out for the division title. Here’s to swapping the Royals and the Pirates in 2010!! Make it happen, Selig!!
24) Washington Nationals, 73-89, (4th place in NL East)
Heading into last season, most baseball publications predicted the Nationals to be one of the worst teams in MLB history. Under first-year manager Manny Acta, the Nationals outperformed those expectations, finishing at 73-89, good for 4th place in the NL East. Ironically, the Nationals are heading towards the same record and standing in 2008, although they’ve improved their lineup significantly.
Starting with last season’s acquisition of Wily Mo Pena, the Nationals have made a handful of low-risk, high-reward trades for underutilized, “buy-low” outfielders. Lastings Milledge was stolen away from the New York Mets for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider and Elijah Dukes was acquired from Tampa Bay for a lower level pitching prospect. Pena was blocked from getting at-bats in Boston at every possible position (LF, RF, DH), but in Washington, when he returns from injury, he’ll have an opportunity to hit 30-40 home runs as the everyday left fielder. From his short stint as a Red Sox, I’ve never seen a player hit a ball harder or look funnier camping out under a routine fly ball. Enjoy watching this guy, Nationals fans.
Milledge was unfairly labeled as a bad character guy for being young and exciting on an old and boring team. Nothing will make me happier than seeing Milledge blossom into the superstar that scouts think he will become. After Mets fans ostracized him for wearing a big chain and hi-fiving fans after hitting a huge home run, they deserve nothing more than to have Milledge destroy them 19 times a season.
Dukes is the wild card of the bunch. He has had countless run-ins with the law and many believe that he struggled in separating himself from the negative influences from the inner-city, Tampa area he grew up in. But nobody can deny Dukes’s talent. And if relocation is what he needs to get his life on track, he is still young enough (23) to become the premier middle of the order bat that Tampa once envisioned.
Fantasy Hint - Look for Ryan Zimmerman to have a huge season in Nationals Park, solidifying himself as a fixture amongst the offensive superduperstar third basemen in the league. He’s already there defensively. Also, if the at-bats are there, Austin Kearns will have a huge season. No player had his numbers deflated in RFK as much as Kearns did. The offense will be revitalized by moving out of RFK Stadium and into Nationals Park, though the reverse can be said for the pitching staff.
23) Minnesota Twins, 73–89, (4th place in AL Central)
Minnesota’s mismanagement of the offseason has me so frustrated with them that I don’t even want to write anything about their 2008 season. (Not to mention, they are one of the corny teams that I have always disliked.) The Santana trade was a complete blunder and after trading Santana, resigning Joe Nathan made zero sense.
Finding a closer is much easier than finding a starter. That’s why middle-market teams never overpay for one. The Twins could have used Nathan’s money to sign Santana, trade Nathan for prospects, and promote Pat Neshak to closer. Wouldn't this have made more sense? I do think the Twins will be better than people expect, especially if Liriano returns to form and Delmon Young learns how to take a pitch, but they are nowhere near ready to contend. Serves them right, too, after the way their cheapskate owner screwed their fans over this offseason.
22) Oakland Athletics, 73-89, (4th place in AL West)
There are a handful of general managers whose judgment I trust enough to give the benefit of the doubt regardless of my initial impression of their moves. Billy Beane is one of them. While losing two excellent players in the Danny Haren and Nick Swisher trades is never a good thing, there’s no question that the deals have drastically improved the A’s long term well-being. In a recent column on ESPN.com, Rob Neyer had an excellent take regarding Oakland’s decision to rebuild:
“Analytically, Beane had no choice. Last season the A's won 76 games. If they brought back the same team next season, they'd have been lucky to win 86 games, which almost surely wouldn't qualify them for the postseason. Essentially, 85 isn't much better than 75, and if you're going to win 75, you might as well win 65. Assuming, of course, that winning 65 puts you on the road to 95.”
Beane realizes that when you lack the resources of big-market teams, you have to stay ahead of the curve. Given MLB’s economic structure, nothing is worse for a lower market franchise than mediocrity. In order to rejoin the elite, you have to break it down and start from scratch, but most importantly, you must identify the right time to do so. If Oakland keeps Swisher and Haren, are they going to win the AL West? Probably not. Instead, by attacking the rebuilding phase proactively, Beane brought in seven prospects that currently rank amongst Oakland’s top 12. These seven players have a much better chance of contributing to Oakland’s next winning team than Swisher and Haren would have. The same could be said about Rich Harden, Huston Street, and Bobby Crosby, which only tells me that Beane is not through yet. If Harden and Crosby can stay healthy through April, I’d be shocked if Beane didn’t move them. The return that these veterans bring in will do wonders in keeping Oakland competitive when they move into their new ballpark in 2011. 65 wins are not bad if they have you on the road to 95.
21) Houston Astros, 75-87, (4th place in NL Central)
The Astros are the total opposite of the A’s. Whereas Billy Beane correctly identified that his team was unable to compete in 2008, Ed Wade has fooled himself into believing that the Astros are better than they are. Rather than accept his 2008 fate and put his best foot forward for the future, Wade has chosen to add pricey veterans in hopes of defying the odds. This method of thinking never works in baseball and certainly won't work in Houston. All adding Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui will accomplish is ensuring Houston of spending more money per loss than they would have otherwise, while delaying any future return to contention. Like the A's, the Astros aren't making the playoffs in 2008 or 2009. But after this offseason's moves, whose roster would you rather have in 2010?
Part III coming soon!!!
4 comments:
I disagree with your assessment of the Houston Astros. Even though they did add pricey veterans, I feel that Kaz Matsui can maintain what he did last year, even though he is coming off anal surgery, lol. And I think Tejada still has enough in the tank to hit 30 homers and have a bounce back year, despite his Mitchell report involvement. The only ting that you didn't mention about the Astors, that does concern me, is their lack of starting pitching. The ace, your old school fantasy loverboy, Roy Oswalt has seen a recent decline in his skills and could be in for a brutal 2008 campiagn.
I can't see Matsui having the season that he did last year. If you look at his 2007 home/road splits, Matsui hit .330/.381/.482 at home and .249/.304/.333 on the road. In essence he was Derek Jeter at Coors Field and Miguel Cairo everywhere else. For a guy who was NEVER a good player before playing in Colorado, that's a risky move to make, regardless of how much of a hitter's park Minute Maid is.
Tejada's somebody who could certainly benefit from moving to Houston. The park seems tailor-made for him. I just don't see the need for his bat, given their lack of depth in the rotation (as you mentioned). In almost all instances, I'm against teams who aren't really in contention adding very expensive players on the downsides of their careers.
I agree with you about Oswalt, 100% though. His K/9 rate has been dropping every year and that's never a good sign. Even though they just signed him to a big extension, I think they'd be better off trying to deal him now while he still have some name-value. In three years, after a little more wear and tear, it's going to be much tougher trying to move a big contract like that.
I think Matsui's ultimate value, is his defense and ability to steal some bases. But in the end can you ever really trust a guy who needs anal fissure surgery?
I think Oswalt's problem is the same thing that happened to Pedro. A body that small is not meant to throw as hard as Oswalt used to be able to do.
I agree a that a team that is out of contention should have no business getting expensive players on the downside of their careers. But at 12 mil per season at this current market, where Carlos Silva gets ace money,a player of his caliber is still a bargain.
But if that's the only value that Matsui brings, can't you find that a lot cheaper somewhere else? Defensive scrappy second basemen are a dime a dozen.
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