Season Preview, Part VI

8) Seattle Mariners, 88–74, (1st place in AL West)

The winner of the American League’s weakest division will be the Seattle Mariners. I will admit that I don’t particularly like Seattle as presently constructed—I just feel like the Angels are very susceptible to a down season in 2008.

Last year, the Mariners outperformed their Pythagorean Record by a large enough margin that the acquisition of Eric Bedard will likely just allow them to sustain their 2007 improvement. The leap to division champions comes on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez. King Felix has been around for so long that it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 21 years old. He’s two years younger than Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum and the same age as Phil Hughes, yet with 400+ innings of MLB experience under his belt. 2008 will be King Felix’s breakout season. Last year he posted a 3.92 ERA, despite allowing an extremely unlucky .338 batting average on balls in play. (.300 is average for a pitcher) Assuming a natural regression to the mean in BABIP, along with progression as a pitcher growing into his stuff, 2008 will result in a monster season for Hernandez, my pick for AL Cy Young

Seattle’s lineup is extremely weak. Ichiro is the only premier bat, but as a slap singles hitter, he isn’t likely to kill you the way that other superstars can. Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez aren’t terrible, but they’d look much better surrounded by an all-star masher. Instead, they are surrounded by Jose Vidro and his 6 home runs as the everyday designated hitter. Man, if only they were able to acquire a designated hitter who could hit 25 home runs, and bat at a .280/.450/.550 clip. I know hitters like that don’t grow on trees, especially ones who enjoy playing on the west coast. And could you imagine the number of prospects you’d have to give up to get a guy like that? Those are practically Albert Pujols-like numbers. Wait, you mean there is somebody available like that? Barry Bonds is still a free agent? And the Seattle Mariners are content with sticking with Jose Vidro at DH? Seriously?

Introducing your 4 divisional series losers….


7) Los Angeles Dodgers, 88–74, (2nd place in NL West, NL Wild Card)

There’s something humorous to me about Joe Torre replacing Grady Little as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ skipper. If Torre didn’t embarrass Little enough in 2003, he certainly finished the job this offseason. The Dodgers began negotiating with Torre while Little still held the position. Little, realizing for the first time in his career that it was time to pull the plug, felt threatened by Torre and chose to resign. If only John Henry and Larry Lucchino had thought to recruit Torre during the 8th inning of the ALCS, baseball history would have been written a lot differently…

Bitterness aside, the Dodgers are better suited with Torre at the helm—considering that they are a playoff contender and all. The one person who’d disagree is Scott Proctor, a reliever reunited with the manager that pitched him over 200 innings in roughly two seasons in New York. Torre’s arrival in Los Angeles is Proctor’s right arm’s worst nightmare. Torre is certainly a change of pace from Little, who might not be aware that relief pitchers actually exist.

Torre might not have to summon Proctor as often as he did in New York, however, because the Dodgers boast the NL’s strongest starting rotation. Brad Penny has established himself as one of the NL’s premier pitchers. Looks like Paul DePodesta knew what he was doing after all. Another widely criticized DePodesta acquisition, Derek Lowe, has revived his career in LA, throwing three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Joining Lowe and Penny is veteran Japanese pitcher, Hiroki Kuroka, a 33 year old right hander who will provide the Dodgers with a season better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first year with Boston. If Chad Billingsley makes “The Jump” that management expects, the Dodgers will throw out a front four as good as anyone in the National League. A staff as good as LA’s will be enough for Joe Torre’s consecutive playoff streak, unlike his former team, to continue in 2008.

6) Milwaukee Brewers, 89–73, (1st place in NL Central)

Lost in the media’s love affair with the Chicago Cubs is the best team in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2007, the Brewers took great strides towards becoming a National League contender, posting an 83-79 record, an eight game improvement on their 2006 total. As a young and improving team, it’s reasonable to expect similar progression in 2008 for the Brew Crew.

First and foremost, the Brewers need a healthy season out of Ben Sheets. Sheets is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers, the all-time leader in BB/9 for pitchers with a K/9 over 7 and he is 4th all-time in K/BB ratio. However, health is always an issue for Sheets. He hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2004 making it tough for Milwaukee to rely on his production. Luckily, Milwaukee finally has some help in the rotation. Yovani Gallardo pitched brilliantly after being called up last season. Gallardo is one of the NL’s brightest young pitchers. Joining them this season is rookie LHP Manny Parra. Parra is a 2001 draft pick whose road to Milwaukee was derailed by injuries. He reestablished himself as a top prospect with a brilliant 2007 season at AA and AAA. After a strong spring training, the Brewers believe Parra is ready to be an integral part of their staff. Jeff Suppan can be expected to provide 200+ league average innings.

Is there a better collection of homegrown talent in baseball than Milwaukee’s? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the only 100% homegrown infield that I can think of. Corey Hart and 2007 Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, manage the corners, bringing the total to six out of the eight everyday players coming from within. With all of this young talent blossoming at the major league level, as you can imagine, there isn’t much left from a positional standpoint. 2007 1st round pick OF Matt LaPorta, a player the Red Sox drafted in 2006 but couldn’t reach terms with, is the last premier positional prospect remaining. He is the classic all-bat, no-glove player but, man, he can rake. In just 115 at-bats after being drafted, LaPorta smashed 12 home runs. At 22 years old, LaPorta will not need much more seasoning at the minor league level. If the Brewers feel Corey Hart can play center field, LaPorta will end up in one of the corners (probably by 2009). Either that, or Bud Selig will find a way to switch the Brewers into the American League so that LaPorta and Fielder can share 1B/DH duties.