Season Preview, Part IV

Part IV will be slightly smaller than usual, as I am choosing to break the remaining non-playoff teams into two parts. Part V will be the remaining non-playoff teams and Parts VI and VII will be the playoff teams.

15) Philadelphia Phillies, 85-77, (3rd place in NL East)

So Jimmy Rollins wasn’t crazy after all. After declaring the Philadelphia Phillies “the NL East’s team to beat” last year during spring training, Rollins led the Phillies on a historic September run, coming back from seven games out with 17 to play, to storm past the New York Mets and capture the division title. As a result, Rollins was rewarded with a controversial NL MVP (the award belonged to David Wright or Matt Holliday), along with his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award. An even greater performance from Rollins will be necessary in 2008 if the Phillies wish to reach the postseason again.

Last year’s magical run has skewed opinions on this year’s team. Their lineup is still elite. ¾ of their infield are homegrown MVP candidates. The game’s best second baseman, Chase Utley could become Philadelphia’s third straight MVP. (Ryan Howard in 2006, Rollins in 2007)

But discussion of Philadelphia’s lineup, swagger, and clutch ability has taken the focus off of their severe lack of pitching depth. After a spectacular 2007 season, Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels is the only reliable starting pitcher—and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Former ace, Brett Myers is making a return to the rotation after a brief stint as closer last year. There’s no telling if he’ll be able to return to a 200+ IP workload effectively. And the question marks run deeper than Myers. Can Kyle Kendrick and his abysmal 3.7 K/9 rate sustain his performance without striking anybody out? Baseball history says otherwise. Jamie Moyer has gotten a year older. While he won 14 games last season, his ERA was over 5.00. Ironically, if Adam Eaton pitches as “well” as Moyer did last year, he will have knocked a full run off his 2007 6.29 ERA.

The bullpen has just as many questions. Many pundits feel newly acquired closer Brad Lidge has not been the same pitcher since giving up a game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. Lidge will be starting the season on the DL, but when he returns, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first blown save. The Phillies are also missing a shutdown setup man to bridge the gap the Lidge. With starting pitchers who aren’t likely to throw deep into games, the Phillies are likely to lose many ballgames in the later innings. Now taking their torrid September out of the equation, is this a team that you’d trust matching up against improved Atlanta and New York teams? Me neither.


14) Colorado Rockies, 85-77, (3rd Place in NL West)

If the Philadelphia Phillies’ had a torrid September, the Colorado Rockies’ September can only be defined by whatever combination of torrid, scorching, sweltering, and any other word that defines hot you can think of. The Colorado Rockies won 13 of their final 14 regular season games to pull into a tie with the San Diego Padres for the Wild Card. The Rockies followed that up by defeating San Diego in a one-game playoff and sweeping Philadelphia and Arizona in the playoffs, en route to becoming the 2008 National League Champions. The clock didn’t strike twelve for Colorado until Josh Beckett took the mound at Fenway Park and pitched the Red Sox to the first of four straight World Series victories.

In what’s becoming a common theme, teams that finished the season strongly, or needed a borderline miracle run to make the playoffs, end up overrated the following season because fans expect them to build on the previous season’s performance. Instead, they are more likely to regress, as a full season’s worth of games is more indicative of a team’s true ability than one hot stretch at the end of a season. There’s an old saying: “You’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as good as your best game.” This holds true with Colorado and Philadelphia. If Trevor Hoffman never blew that horrendous save against Milwaukee at the end of the season, Colorado would have never made the playoffs, and their 2008 outlook would not be as positive. If the Mets hadn’t completely collapsed down the stretch, the same would be said for the Phillies. Look for both teams to endure similar fates in 2008.


13) Atlanta Braves, 86–76, (2nd Place in NL East)

Flipping through the New York Post and reading the daily bickering between superstars like Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran, you would think the NL East was a two team division. And while nobody would blame you for forgetting about the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals, there’s a team in Atlanta that is undeservedly flying under the radar in the NL East divisional race. The Braves are relishing being overlooked. For too long, the expectations of a deep October run took its toll on Bobby Cox’s club. Most fans view those Braves as failures, despite their run of consecutive divisional titles, for being a team who didn’t capitalize in the big moment except once, winning the World Series in 1995—to some extent, baseball’s Buffalo Bills. But armed with arguably the best lineup in the National League, the Braves are bracing themselves for a serious run at contention in 2008, albeit with a different style than they used during their 90’s reign.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a lineup in the National League better than Atlanta’s. Chipper Jones is still slugging away in the middle of the order, coming off a season in which he tallied the second highest OPS of his illustrious career. Chipper misses his share of games each season, but his production has shown no sign of slowing down. The Braves will also receive a full season of switch-hitting first baseman Mark Teixeira. Jones and Teixeira could give the Braves the best middle of the order, switch-hitting duo in MLB history. SS Yunel Escobar and RF Jeff Francoeur are primed to join the elite at their respective positions while Brian McCann already provides top of the line production behind the plate. Besides the pitcher’s spot in the order, there is no easy out in Atlanta’s lineup.

The Braves have been the media’s sexy upset pick in 2008. ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark, along with Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, are each predicting the Braves to appear in their first World Series since 1999. Gammons and Rosenthal have the Braves losing to the Indians in the World Series while Stark has them victorious over the Detroit Tigers. My hesitation in picking them for the playoffs lies within their pitching staff, ironically the one aspect of their team that had been most dependable throughout the last decade.


12) Chicago Cubs, 87-75, (2nd place in NL Central)

One of my least favorite aspects of the start of a new season is the annual “Chicago Cubs to win World Series” column. Every year, a handful of writers hop aboard the Cubbies’ bandwagon for reasons ranging from “their fans deserve it” to “it would be good for the sport to see them win”. Rarely, if ever, does their reasoning involve baseball. This year, only two of ESPN.com’s nineteen experts picked the Cubs to win the World Series, which appears slightly less than usual. But after adding in the fact that 17 of the 19 picked the Cubs to win the NL Central, the media’s “wishful thinking” quotient is right in line with its normal rate.

The Cubs' big addition this offseason was Japanese OF Kosuke Fukodome. Fukodome has been described as a Bobby Abreu-type. He brings a solid left-handed bat and a very good eye to an overly right-handed team that swings at everything. Ideally, Fukodome should bat 1st or 2nd, in front of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. However, Soriano's stubborn insistence to bat leadoff will ultimately leave Fukodome batting lower in the order, getting on base for guys who can’t knock him in.

It isn’t that the 2008 Cubs are a bad team. They’re likely to be finish as one of the top five or six teams in the entire National League. It’s just that the media’s growing love affair with them every season is not only absurd, it is borderline gimmicky—and gimmicks grow old quickly. Just because the Red Sox and White Sox recently extinguished lengthy championship droughts does not mean that the Cubs are suddenly entitled to as well. For those who feel like I do, fear not: It won’t happen this season either.