12) Toronto Blue Jays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)
The longer it takes to finish this preview, the more and more likely I’ll second guess my placement of the Toronto Blue Jays. After three very competitive games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays completed a sleep of the defending World Champions earlier today, proving that they belong in the discussion with the AL’s megapowers. The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games each season for the past ten seasons. Stuck in the highly competitive AL East, the Blue Jays have the most victories of any team who has failed to make the playoffs during the Wild Card era. If Bud Selig chooses to implement my aforementioned “Swap a team to the NL” rule change, the Blue Jays would be a perennial NL powerhouse.
In 2008, the Blue Jays have their best all-around team to date. When healthy, their pitching staff, top to bottom, is the league’s best. Staff ace Roy Halladay is arguably the American League’s best starter. Halladay is a throwback to days when the starting pitcher’s objective was to finish the game that he started. Halladay’s is a refreshing act, one that is nearing extinction given today’s era of 6 IP, 3 ER quality starts. Following Halladay is uber-talented righthander A.J. Burnett, a serious breakout candidate given his contractual status. Burnett has an opt-out clause in his deal and he and his agent have indicated that if he pitches well this season, he will execute his right to opt-out and play the open market. When was the last time Burnett made all of his starts in one season, you ask? His last contract season, the year before signing with Toronto. 2008 has career year written all over it. Rounding out the rotation is a trio of high-upside righthanders in Dustin McGowan (the best of the bunch and future Cy Young candidate), Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, each of whom came on strong towards the end of 2007. Neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees can feel as comfortable with the back end of their rotation as Toronto does.
The Blue Jays will have no problems scoring either. Vernon Wells is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that zapped away all of his power in 2007. Feeling healthy once again, Wells is poised for a strong bounce back campaign. Alex Rios is an emerging superstar, perhaps the best right fielder in the American League. And if “The Big Hurt”, Frank Thomas can continue swinging his imposing bat (RE: Manny Delcarmen), as he has in the early going, the Jays will pose a very deep lineup that wears down weak opposing pitching staffs.
On the other side of the diamond, the addition of Scott Rolen, (who’s currently on the DL with a broken finger), bolsters an already solid defense. When Rolen finally joins second baseman Aaron Hill (who Peter Gammons declared the best all-around 2B in the AL East) and first baseman Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald is at shortstop, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive infield as well.
So, the question remains… Why third place? I wish I had a better answer. The Blue Jays would probably win half of the other divisions in baseball. Trapped in the AL East, they just need too much to go right for them to be left standing come October. This Blue Jays squad can win 90+ games, but more than likely they’ll endure another strong, but playoff-less season, whose reward will be playing spoiler to the Wild Card hopes of the AL East’s second=place team.
11) Tampa Bay Rays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)
The Tampa Bay Rays managed to get rid of the most negativity of any team, this offseason. After officially dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to our city’s capital and the disgruntled Delmon Young to the North Star State. The symbolism was evident. These are not your father’s older brother’s Rays.
BaseballProspectus.com’s famous PECOTA forecasting system is predicting 88 wins. While 88 might be a reach, the Rays enter 2008 with a strong chance to post their first winning season in franchise history. At the very least, the Rays will play a huge role in determining the AL East champions. If the Yankees are the Republicans and the Red Sox are the Democrats, the Rays are an Independent party looking to steal votes. The team they steal the most votes from is likely to lose the divisional race, and possibly the wild card as well.
The future is even brighter than the 2008 outlook. The organization is already looking ahead in that regard. Case in point: their decision to start Evan Longoria in AAA in an effort to delay his arbitration/free angency eligibility.
In 2010, the Rays could post the following lineup:
CF Desmond Jennings
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac
DH Rocco Baldelli (wouldn’t count on it, but let’s not forget how young he is)
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura (or Brignac at 2B with 2008’s 1st overall pick at SS)
With this rotation:
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Matt Garza
Whoever pans out of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jacob McGee
Davis has the best chance of the trio to be a high-quality starter. Niemann would profile well as a reliever, given his size and his injury history. McGee is a lefty with mid to high 90’s heat. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Even if all three fail to pan out, the Rays still have young pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine to round out the rotation. (Both guys pitched well down the '07 stretch) Still not the worst of options for a #5 starter.
Keeping in mind how unpredictable young players are, there has arguably never been a collection of talent as good as Tampa’s coming together at the exact same time. Most of the talent was assembled through high draft picks thanks in part to the team’s ineptitude. But proper decision making is just as vital, if not more so, when drafting that high. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has been just as bad for just as long, with much less to show for. The thought seems crazy, but playoff baseball in Tampa Bay is not far away. (To speed up the process, I wonder if Andrew Friedman would vote in my idea to switch to the National League!)
10) New York Yankees, 89-73, (2nd place in AL East)
A few years ago, Major League Baseball implemented an unbalanced schedule to capitalize on the growing interest in divisional rivalries. Divisional adversaries now played 18 or 19 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees benefited immensely. After pocketing the huge gates from their 19 wars with each other, both teams were rewarded with 38 games against the floundering Orioles and the atrocious Devil Rays, who have been amongst the league’s worst teams since their inception. However, in light of Toronto and Tampa’s significant improvement, the fun ends this season. The AL East runner-up is no longer guaranteed a playoff spot and as such, the Yankees come into 2008 with a possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
The Yankees enter 2008 in a quasi-rebuilding phase, eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, albeit not as defending champions. While much has been made of the Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy trio (CHK) and their symbolism of the Yankee paradigm shift towards youth, the Yankees remain an expensive team (baseball’s only $200 million team) with old parts. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano are the only regulars under 32 years old. Considering a baseball player’s prime generally exists between ages 27 and 31, it’s possible that the Yankees’ best players’ best seasons are behind them, yet players like Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui are still being paid like superstars. The presence of their contracts has left the Yankees pot-committed, forcing them to scramble to contend as these former stars exit their primes. It also alters management’s decision making in the short term. For example, the extra years tacked on to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera this offseason were irrational long-term and likely to be regretted, but they were completely necessary for the Yankees chances to compete in 2008.
But luckily, the end of the madness is in sight. The Yankees have more than $80 million coming off of their payroll in 2008 followed by another $30 million in 2009. The Cold War with Boston appears to have died down (though it’s now likely to spill over into the amateur draft), signaling a birth of a new era for both teams. Brian Cashman has finally been given the authority to build from within. A system that was barren just two seasons ago now ranks amongst the league’s best.
Joining the CHK trio is 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman, a 6’10’’ right hander from NC State, so potentially dominant that the Yankees drafted and signed him to a major league contract despite knowing that he needed Tommy John surgery. If healthy, Brackman could be the best of the bunch. On the opposite side of the field, the Yankees boast two future all star outfielders, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Jackson could be Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field as the Yankees move into their new stadium in 2009.
Highlighted by two phenomenal young superstars on the left side of the infield, the New York media perpetuates a misconception that the Mets are in better shape for the future than the Yankees. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Taking nothing away from David Wright (the best player in the NL) and Jose Reyes, but even with the discrepancy in age, neither player has ever had a better season than their Bronx counterpart. Fernando Martinez is the only Mets prospect who would crack the Yankees’ top-10, and even still, he’d fall behind Jackson and Tabata on the depth chart. And forget Chamberlain or Hughes, the Mets don’t have one starting pitcher in Kennedy’s class either.
The Yankees will be better than 5th best in the AL and 9th best in baseball. The best team in New York will likely have the second most wins in New York. In the NL East, the Yankees win the division by five games. However, young pitchers struggle with the quality of lineups in the AL and the Yankees do not have strong enough middle relief to compensate for nights when Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t have it. (For Kennedy, it will be much more often than Yankee fans had hoped. He has NL Central starter written all over him.) It also places inordinate pressure on Chien Ming Wang, an excellent pitcher who is unfairly overslotted as an ace in this staff, and Andy Pettitte to pitch deep into games during every start.
But the lineup will still score runs. Alex Rodriguez remains the game’s best hitter (maybe history’s?), Jeter is Jeter, and my MVP runner up pick, Bobby Abreu is in the best shape of his life, poised for a monster season, as he looks for one last huge contract. Will the offense be enough to push New York to the playoffs? It was last year, but the AL has improved immensely once again. This year, I think the Yankees miss the postseason by a hair. However, as the emergent developmental monster lurks towards the forefront, 2008 might be baseball’s final chance to witness an October without the Evil Empire for quite some time.
12) Los Angeles Angels, 90-72, (2nd place in AL West, AL Wild Card)
One of the worst aspects of laziness is that clicking “save as” can be too much work for me. Unsurprisingly, I lost my lengthy entry on the Angels when my brother closed out my Word document without saving it. As a result, I’ve been too demoralized to try recapturing my prior brilliance (explanation for my hiatus) so I will simply leave you with some bulletpoints to get a sense of where I was heading with the Angels preview.
---Predicting the Angels and Mariners to flip-flop from their place in the 2007 standings isn’t as exciting of an upset pick as, say, predicting San Diego over UConn in a March Madness office pool, but it’s a start. In March Madness, you’ll pick an upset because you’re familiar with a good team who seems susceptible to one, not because you are in love with the 13-seed’s chances. If anybody seems susceptible to falling off, it’s the veteran-laden Angels.
---Calling them the Los Angeles Angels is annoying and confusing.
---Which aging free agent center fielders will the Los Angeles teams overpay for this offseason? 2006 brought in Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre; 2007 brought Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Who will it be in 2008? Rocco Baldelli? Mike Cameron? A return of Jim Edmonds? Tune in and find out!
---Every time the Red Sox win a World Series, they sweep the Angels in the ALDS. A playoff without the Angels could be an ominous sign for Boston’s chances. The opposite could be said for New York’s chances.
Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rays. Show all posts
Monday, April 07, 2008
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Season Preview, Part III
20) Texas Rangers, 75 – 87, (3rd place in AL West)
Whenever I make season predictions, there’s always a random team who sneaks up the chart farther than I expected. This year it’s the Texas Rangers. It’s not that they have gotten particularly better. It’s just that other teams (Oakland, Minnesota, etc.) have regressed a little more.
Last season, the Rangers made a decision to replenish the farm system, trading All-Star 1st baseman Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for the Braves’ three best prospects. (C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, and SP Matt Harrison) Saltalamacchia was the game’s best catching prospect before Matt Weiters got drafted. Andrus is a talented 19-year old shortstop of the ‘Jose Reyes’ mold, who scouts have been raving about since Atlanta signed him as a 16-year old. Harrison is a 22-year old lefthander who has had solid minor league statistics at every point along the way. Although management was slammed for the trade, the deal made a lot of sense for the Rangers. Management had finally committed to righting the ship. Their alternative would have been signing Teixeira to a big money, long-term extension. If they had chosen to go that route, the Rangers would have languished in 70-winville with no signs of getting out anytime soon. Now, they at least have a sense of direction.
The Rangers followed the Teixeira trade with two clever deadline deals. One deal sent Kenny Lofton to the Indians for C Max Ramirez. The other sent Eric Gagne to Boston for three solid prospects, Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre. Gabbard and Murphy are already capable of contributing in the majors and the 18-year old, Beltre is a high-upside five-tool prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has been compared to everyone from Barry Bonds to Alfonso Soriano.
>>Tangent- In those trades, the Rangers pulled off one of my favorite, but underutilized low-market team trade tactics: Signing veterans to low-money, one-year deals, in seasons where you are not going to compete, and trading them to contenders at the trade deadline. Every season, contenders are looking for an extra arm or bat down the stretch. Operating like this is a very low risk technique to replenish your farm system and I don’t understand why more teams refuse to take advantage of it. End Tangent.<<
The Rangers will continue looking towards the future in 2008. If somebody is willing to take Michael Young’s contract, they’ll explore it—-same goes for Hank Blalock. In the offseason, they acquired OF Josh Hamilton for a highly touted pitching prospect, Edinson Volquez. By now everyone knows Hamilton’s story. Hamilton’s talent is limitless. He has the rare type of ability where if he stays of the field, anything is possible. In 2007, he was baseball’s feel-good story. In 2008, he’s back to being a baseball player; the middle of the order bat that will lead the new era of Rangers into the future.
19) Chicago White Sox, 81 – 81, (3rd place in AL Central)
Nothing screams ‘bland team’ more than an 81-81 prediction. From a forecasting standpoint, it’s really a copout. I’m not saying they’re going to be a winner; I’m not saying they’re going to be a loser. They’re the guy who doesn’t get pinned in a triple threat match.
These White Sox are caught in the same predicament as their ’05 World Series adversaries. They are stuck in “No Man’s Land”. Like the Astros, Kenny Williams still believes he has a championship-caliber nucleus. If just three years ago guys like Paul Konerko, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye, amongst others, could be integral elements of a World Series champion, why couldn’t that still be the case today? Naturally, it is an age issue. The vets are reaching ages where sharp declines in performance are to be expected. (See Konerko, Contreras, and Dye’s 2007) But since these veterans are locked into expensive long-term contracts, it forces Williams to keep building on in hopes of a bounceback, through acquisitions of players like Nick Swisher (Expect a huge season!) and Orlando Cabrera (Expect a huge decline!), even though the likelihood of a playoff run isn’t there.
Like the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals, the White Sox won the World Series with a very veteran-laden team. Veteran-laden teams are the least likely to build perennial winners because of inevitable performance declines. Plus, in the aftermath of a championship, emotional attachments often affect decision making, making it hard to part ways with popular “winning” players. Unlike Theo Epstein’s handling of the 2004 Red Sox, Williams was fooled by the 2005 playoffs into overrating his team’s chances of competing again in 2006. They became buyers instead of sellers. Not helping matters is the fact that Williams is a believer of old school baseball mantra: Gritty, gutsy veteran players can drive a team to a championship on sheer perseverance. In 2005, the White Sox caught a perfect storm of timely hitting and extremely hot pitching—not because Konerko, Contreras, and Dye are particularly made for October baseball, but because that specific October, they played well enough to become champions. While fans will never forget that championship run, it will ultimately postpone the franchise’s return to success.
18) San Diego Padres, 83–79, (4th place in NL West)
With seventeen teams remaining, we have reached the point where every team left has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. For all the complaints about competitive balance in baseball, this is essentially the same ratio heading into the season as the NFL.
The NL West is going to be baseball’s tightest division. Aside from the pitiable San Francisco Giants, each team could either win the division or finish in 4th place. It’s that close. This season the Padres are the most likely of the bunch to regress. Their lineup has gotten very old, very quickly. Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles would have made a great outfield six or seven years ago. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez, there aren’t any bats that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs last year, but his pitiful .292 obp takes away any positive thoughts about his bat.
Luckily, the Padres realize that they are not going to win baseball games by outslugging their opponents. Kevin Towers has done an excellent job picking up building a staff that thrives in the Petco Park confines. Jake Peavy is the reigning Cy Young winner and Chris Young was an All-Star experiencing a breakout year before an injury derailed his 2007 campaign. When pitching at Petco, there might not be a better duo in the league. Amazingly, Greg Maddux is still an effective third starter. After that, the Padres have some trouble. While Randy Wolf still has a strong K/9 rate, he’s not the type of starter that a playoff team would depend on. They took a smart low-risk chance on Mark Prior but at this point, only an extreme optimist could envision him contributing again. If Prior can come back effectively, it will bump the Padres up a few games, possibly putting them right back into the divisional picture. I’m just not counting on that.
17) Cincinnati Reds, 84–78, (3rd place in NL Central)
The Cincinnati Reds are my 2008 sleeper team. They are a team with great high-end prospects in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Throw in starter Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, and it’s easy to see why Baseball America lists Cincy with the third best farm system, behind Tampa Bay and Boston.
The Reds have plenty of talent at the Major League level as well. Adam Dunn is a consistent 40-HR threat in left field and Brandon Phillips has emerged as one of the game’s elite second basemen. The Reds have an impressive one-two combo at the top of their rotation in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and youngster Johnny Cueto could become the best of the bunch. The 22-year old righthander is already drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez, throwing a 98 mph heater with a devastating changeup. (EDIT: In his first start, Cueto one-hit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks) The Reds also solidified their bullpen by signing closer Francisco Cordero to a 4-year deal.
If I had any idea what Dusty Baker was thinking, I’d feel much more confident adding a few wins to their total. For now, thoughts of Baker’s managerial style are holding me back. Baker has been reluctant throughout his career to rely on rookies in his everyday lineup. Bruce, baseball’s top prospect, has already been sent to AAA, while Votto is left sharing at bats with Scott Hatteberg at first base. Also, during his tenure with Chicago, Baker’s usage of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were classic examples of how NOT to manage talented young arms. Is this really the right manager for a team whose future relies heavily on Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez’s right arms? You tell me.
16) Detroit Tigers, 84–78, (2nd place in AL Central, )
---I don’t understand the rationale of building an offensive juggernaut in a pitcher’s ballpark. Wouldn’t that negate any positive effect of a strong lineup?
---They are way too trendy of a pick.
---Pudge Rodriguez sucks, Edgar Renteria will always be a bum, Magglio Ordonez can’t possibly replicate his 2007 season, and Placido Polanco’s not nearly as good defensively as his 0 errors in 2007 would lead you to believe
---Carlos Guillen can rake. He’ll be even better having moved off of shortstop.
---Missing Curtis Granderson is going to kill them. In 2007, Granderson moved himself into Grady Sizemore’s class of elite CF.
---I am not sold on their pitching staff. Justin Verlander has been extremely overworked in his first two seasons that he’s likely to experience some regression this year. Jeremy Bonderman is not what he’s cranked up to be. Kenny Rogers is older than Jesus. Dontrelle Willis is probably going to continue on the downward spiral that his career has been on. They do not have a strong bullpen. Todd Jones should not be closing for a contender. Zumaya and Rodney are still hurt. It’s really not a good staff. Is it manageable if Detroit scores? Sure, and for that reason I expect them to compete. They just won’t make the playoffs.
Part IV tomorrow
Whenever I make season predictions, there’s always a random team who sneaks up the chart farther than I expected. This year it’s the Texas Rangers. It’s not that they have gotten particularly better. It’s just that other teams (Oakland, Minnesota, etc.) have regressed a little more.
Last season, the Rangers made a decision to replenish the farm system, trading All-Star 1st baseman Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for the Braves’ three best prospects. (C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, and SP Matt Harrison) Saltalamacchia was the game’s best catching prospect before Matt Weiters got drafted. Andrus is a talented 19-year old shortstop of the ‘Jose Reyes’ mold, who scouts have been raving about since Atlanta signed him as a 16-year old. Harrison is a 22-year old lefthander who has had solid minor league statistics at every point along the way. Although management was slammed for the trade, the deal made a lot of sense for the Rangers. Management had finally committed to righting the ship. Their alternative would have been signing Teixeira to a big money, long-term extension. If they had chosen to go that route, the Rangers would have languished in 70-winville with no signs of getting out anytime soon. Now, they at least have a sense of direction.
The Rangers followed the Teixeira trade with two clever deadline deals. One deal sent Kenny Lofton to the Indians for C Max Ramirez. The other sent Eric Gagne to Boston for three solid prospects, Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre. Gabbard and Murphy are already capable of contributing in the majors and the 18-year old, Beltre is a high-upside five-tool prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has been compared to everyone from Barry Bonds to Alfonso Soriano.
>>Tangent- In those trades, the Rangers pulled off one of my favorite, but underutilized low-market team trade tactics: Signing veterans to low-money, one-year deals, in seasons where you are not going to compete, and trading them to contenders at the trade deadline. Every season, contenders are looking for an extra arm or bat down the stretch. Operating like this is a very low risk technique to replenish your farm system and I don’t understand why more teams refuse to take advantage of it. End Tangent.<<
The Rangers will continue looking towards the future in 2008. If somebody is willing to take Michael Young’s contract, they’ll explore it—-same goes for Hank Blalock. In the offseason, they acquired OF Josh Hamilton for a highly touted pitching prospect, Edinson Volquez. By now everyone knows Hamilton’s story. Hamilton’s talent is limitless. He has the rare type of ability where if he stays of the field, anything is possible. In 2007, he was baseball’s feel-good story. In 2008, he’s back to being a baseball player; the middle of the order bat that will lead the new era of Rangers into the future.
19) Chicago White Sox, 81 – 81, (3rd place in AL Central)
Nothing screams ‘bland team’ more than an 81-81 prediction. From a forecasting standpoint, it’s really a copout. I’m not saying they’re going to be a winner; I’m not saying they’re going to be a loser. They’re the guy who doesn’t get pinned in a triple threat match.
These White Sox are caught in the same predicament as their ’05 World Series adversaries. They are stuck in “No Man’s Land”. Like the Astros, Kenny Williams still believes he has a championship-caliber nucleus. If just three years ago guys like Paul Konerko, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye, amongst others, could be integral elements of a World Series champion, why couldn’t that still be the case today? Naturally, it is an age issue. The vets are reaching ages where sharp declines in performance are to be expected. (See Konerko, Contreras, and Dye’s 2007) But since these veterans are locked into expensive long-term contracts, it forces Williams to keep building on in hopes of a bounceback, through acquisitions of players like Nick Swisher (Expect a huge season!) and Orlando Cabrera (Expect a huge decline!), even though the likelihood of a playoff run isn’t there.
Like the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals, the White Sox won the World Series with a very veteran-laden team. Veteran-laden teams are the least likely to build perennial winners because of inevitable performance declines. Plus, in the aftermath of a championship, emotional attachments often affect decision making, making it hard to part ways with popular “winning” players. Unlike Theo Epstein’s handling of the 2004 Red Sox, Williams was fooled by the 2005 playoffs into overrating his team’s chances of competing again in 2006. They became buyers instead of sellers. Not helping matters is the fact that Williams is a believer of old school baseball mantra: Gritty, gutsy veteran players can drive a team to a championship on sheer perseverance. In 2005, the White Sox caught a perfect storm of timely hitting and extremely hot pitching—not because Konerko, Contreras, and Dye are particularly made for October baseball, but because that specific October, they played well enough to become champions. While fans will never forget that championship run, it will ultimately postpone the franchise’s return to success.
18) San Diego Padres, 83–79, (4th place in NL West)
With seventeen teams remaining, we have reached the point where every team left has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. For all the complaints about competitive balance in baseball, this is essentially the same ratio heading into the season as the NFL.
The NL West is going to be baseball’s tightest division. Aside from the pitiable San Francisco Giants, each team could either win the division or finish in 4th place. It’s that close. This season the Padres are the most likely of the bunch to regress. Their lineup has gotten very old, very quickly. Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles would have made a great outfield six or seven years ago. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez, there aren’t any bats that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs last year, but his pitiful .292 obp takes away any positive thoughts about his bat.
Luckily, the Padres realize that they are not going to win baseball games by outslugging their opponents. Kevin Towers has done an excellent job picking up building a staff that thrives in the Petco Park confines. Jake Peavy is the reigning Cy Young winner and Chris Young was an All-Star experiencing a breakout year before an injury derailed his 2007 campaign. When pitching at Petco, there might not be a better duo in the league. Amazingly, Greg Maddux is still an effective third starter. After that, the Padres have some trouble. While Randy Wolf still has a strong K/9 rate, he’s not the type of starter that a playoff team would depend on. They took a smart low-risk chance on Mark Prior but at this point, only an extreme optimist could envision him contributing again. If Prior can come back effectively, it will bump the Padres up a few games, possibly putting them right back into the divisional picture. I’m just not counting on that.
17) Cincinnati Reds, 84–78, (3rd place in NL Central)
The Cincinnati Reds are my 2008 sleeper team. They are a team with great high-end prospects in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Throw in starter Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, and it’s easy to see why Baseball America lists Cincy with the third best farm system, behind Tampa Bay and Boston.
The Reds have plenty of talent at the Major League level as well. Adam Dunn is a consistent 40-HR threat in left field and Brandon Phillips has emerged as one of the game’s elite second basemen. The Reds have an impressive one-two combo at the top of their rotation in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and youngster Johnny Cueto could become the best of the bunch. The 22-year old righthander is already drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez, throwing a 98 mph heater with a devastating changeup. (EDIT: In his first start, Cueto one-hit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks) The Reds also solidified their bullpen by signing closer Francisco Cordero to a 4-year deal.
If I had any idea what Dusty Baker was thinking, I’d feel much more confident adding a few wins to their total. For now, thoughts of Baker’s managerial style are holding me back. Baker has been reluctant throughout his career to rely on rookies in his everyday lineup. Bruce, baseball’s top prospect, has already been sent to AAA, while Votto is left sharing at bats with Scott Hatteberg at first base. Also, during his tenure with Chicago, Baker’s usage of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were classic examples of how NOT to manage talented young arms. Is this really the right manager for a team whose future relies heavily on Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez’s right arms? You tell me.
16) Detroit Tigers, 84–78, (2nd place in AL Central, )
---I don’t understand the rationale of building an offensive juggernaut in a pitcher’s ballpark. Wouldn’t that negate any positive effect of a strong lineup?
---They are way too trendy of a pick.
---Pudge Rodriguez sucks, Edgar Renteria will always be a bum, Magglio Ordonez can’t possibly replicate his 2007 season, and Placido Polanco’s not nearly as good defensively as his 0 errors in 2007 would lead you to believe
---Carlos Guillen can rake. He’ll be even better having moved off of shortstop.
---Missing Curtis Granderson is going to kill them. In 2007, Granderson moved himself into Grady Sizemore’s class of elite CF.
---I am not sold on their pitching staff. Justin Verlander has been extremely overworked in his first two seasons that he’s likely to experience some regression this year. Jeremy Bonderman is not what he’s cranked up to be. Kenny Rogers is older than Jesus. Dontrelle Willis is probably going to continue on the downward spiral that his career has been on. They do not have a strong bullpen. Todd Jones should not be closing for a contender. Zumaya and Rodney are still hurt. It’s really not a good staff. Is it manageable if Detroit scores? Sure, and for that reason I expect them to compete. They just won’t make the playoffs.
Part IV tomorrow
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