St. Francis Prep, CliffsNotes, and MLB's Hall of Fame

Imagine it is 1999 and you are in St. Francis Prep preparing for one of Mr. Goodwin or Mr. Claro’s infamous English exams.

This semester, Claro plans to test you on The Great Gatsby, A Tree Grows in Brooklyn, and A Catcher in the Rye.

You have always been a good English student so you prepare for these exams as you normally would: you read each novel thoroughly, take extensive notes, and study your notes before each test. 

As usual, your hard work leads to good grades.  However, you notice that your peers are scoring similar grades to you with far less effort.  Even notoriously poor students have become English experts.

Suddenly, a dummy who struggles to turn on a light is explaining Gatsby’s green light.

You sense something is amiss and one day your suspicions are confirmed.  Yellow books known as CliffsNotes have infiltrated the school, from west top to east bottom, and revolutionized the way your classmates are studying.

Some students are using CliffsNotes in lieu of reading a book, some students are using them in adjunction to reading the book, and some students did not use them at all.

Usage also varied in frequency.

Some students used them with every book, some students used them with some of the books, and some students never used them with any books.

CliffsNotes became part of Prep's culture.

Poor students utilized CliffsNotes to narrow the gap between their superior peers.   Once relieved to avoid summer school, these students were now filling up honors classes.  Their parents were never more proud.

The increased GPA’s of their unintelligent contemporaries forced honors students into moral dilemmas.  “If I know that I am one of the best English student in SFP without CliffsNotes, do I let some Joe Schmo (or Stro? or Fro? #nodiss) take away my spot in an honors class when the entire student body knows that I am the smartest English student here?”

Suddenly, the honors students began using CliffsNotes too.

Elite before using CliffsNotes, by simply leveling the playing field, these students were attaining never-before-seen heights in the English department.  Prep cashed in on the wave of excitement generated by these extraordinary students, raising tuition nearly double in ten years.

Prep never knew for sure which students used CliffsNotes and which students did not.  More importantly, they did not care.

Increased class participation added value to class discussions that may have otherwise not existed.  The improved English grades made Prep look spectacular.

But slowly, the excitement of the “CliffsNotes Era”—as later deemed by future writers of the Seraph— began to die down.

A decade passes and Prep concludes that there is a CliffsNotes problem on its premises.  They enforce definitive rules prohibiting CliffsNotes while imposing penalties against any student who uses them from this point forward.

This would be a noble effort by Prep’s hierarchy; however, its bearing on students who used CliffsNotes prior to this legal language should be nonexistent.

Were the accomplishments of students who learned during the “CliffsNotes Era” legitimate?  Of course! Their grades still count.  Their diplomas are still valid.

Prep’s administration cannot justify erasing an entire era of student accomplishments out of embarrassment that their employees dragged their heels when confronting the issue.  It is disingenuous at best.  It’s not like Mr. Williams is being asked to give back his 1999 salary.

Had Prep’s concerns about CliffsNotes usage been legitimate, they would have made a better effort to rid the school of them as their prevalence increased.

For years, Channel One ignored the ‘CliffsNotes Era’; now, every day, a new reporter hops aboard his or her moral high horse to diminish what SFP’s students once accomplished.

Never mind the fact that Wikipedia estimates that 2/3 of students as early as 1900 were academically cheating in some fashion or another. For Prep to assume that students from these eras would not have used CliffsNotes had they been available at that time is laughable.

As such, the valedictorian of the Class of 2002 needs no asterisk.  He or she should take her rightful place amongst the great graduates in St. Francis Prep history, no questions asked.  Their legacy should remain unquestioned, their greatness undisputed.

Future generations of Terriers deserve as much.


Nick Xouris’s 2014 HOF Ballot:
Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling,
Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux

Clueless Joe (Girardi) Stuck in a Box with Yankee Bullpen

Last night's 4-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox rests squarely on Joe Girardi's shoulders. Two words caused him to lose the game, neither of which are "Joba" or "Chamberlain".

The two words are conventional thinking.

Girardi managed last night's game the same way that 99.9% of managers and wanna-be managers would have: Push C.C. Sabathia to the limit, hoping to get 23 or 24 outs from him. When Sabathia tires, have Mariano Rivera ready to get the final 3 or 4 outs of the game.

His train of thought ironically required very little thought, resulting in a world-class failure for a man paid a lot of money to win baseball games.

When Girardi manages "by a formula", he becomes oblivious to any volatile external factors that influence a game's outcome. Baseball is the only sport where game context is ignored from decision making.

Teams constantly look to create a managerial blueprint to make late inning managing easier for the men in charge. "He's our 8th inning guy!," is the praise often placed upon a J.J. Putz or a Ryan Madson. (As a reliever, Chamberlain would likely hold the same status in Girardi's pen.)

The sole purpose of this is to shift the blame of failure from the manager to the players. If an 8th inning guy blows a game, the manager is exempt from blame because he 'followed the script'.

But could you ever imagine Tom Coughlin deciding before a game, "No matter what, with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Eli Manning is throwing the ball down field to Steve Smith"? What if it's 2nd and 1? What if the opponent has a good pass defense? Shouldn't things like this matter?

To ignore the context of the game, in any sport, is irresponsible. Smart teams avoid managing themselves into a box.

Ask any Red Sox fan who their "8th inning guy" is and you might get five or six different answers. Is it Manny Delcarmen? Takashi Saito? Hideki Okajima? Justin Masterson? Ramon Ramirez? Daniel Bard? Each of these pitchers has gotten big outs in the big moment this season.

And that's the intrinsic beauty of the Red Sox bullpen: there is no 8th inning guy. Theo Esptein wants Terry Francona to make decisions best suited for each individual game during each game, not before them.

You need a strikeout? Go to Delcarmen. You need a ground ball? Bring in Masterson. A couple of tough lefties coming up? Hello Okajima. Managing by a predetermined formula, irrespective of a game's context would significantly reduce Francona's effectiveness as a manager.

Which brings us to last night's Red Sox-Yankees game.

After allowing the single to Nick Green, there is one pitcher in the Yankee bullpen who made sense to face Pedroia-Drew-Youkilis-Bay. With the game on the line, it's ridiculous to allow the Alfredo Aceves's of the world to lose them for you. Your best pitchers should be called upon to get your biggest outs, which is why Mariano Rivera should have been summoned to get Sabathia out of the jam.

Rivera is the best pitcher in the Yankee bullpen. Forget about the 9th inning. The game was on the line in the 8th with the heart of the Red Sox order coming up. Survive the Red Sox threat in the 8th inning with your best pitcher on the mound and worry about the 9th inning later. If Rivera loses the game, so be it. At least, the game was lost with your best pitcher on the mound.

With 6 outs remaining, wouldn't the Yankees have been better suited to have Rivera pitching to Pedroia-Drew-Youkilis-Bay instead of a tired Sabathia, Aceves, and Coke?

Most importantly, Rivera does not have to get all 6 outs. If Aceves and Coke are needed to get two or three outs, they would be much better suited facing David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and Rocco Baldelli in the 9th than the heart of the order with men on base and Fenway Park rocking in the 8th.

But it's commonplace for baseball managers to stick to the script, a sport stuck badly in a "This is how things are done" frame of mind. Managers manage for the save (statistic) rather than the win. At least Rivera will be well-rested for tonight's 9th inning appearance with a 3-run lead against Omir Santos, Fernando Tatis, and Jeremy Reed.

Yesterday wasn't an example of why Joba should be in the bullpen; it was an example of why managers should start thinking outside the box.

I love this stadium baby but I can't see straight anymoreeeeee

About two years ago, my family moved into a new house.

I like the new house. It’s bigger, it’s nicer, and it’s in a better neighborhood. It’s an obvious upgrade in just about every physical way.

Friends of mine, who have been to both, would be hard-pressed to find even a single aspect of my new house that they liked better in the old one.

But after two years, there is an emotional attachment missing that I have been unable to develop.

Curious, I began thinking: What makes a house one’s home?

I pose this question one week after my first visit to the New Yankee Stadium. A ballpark so obnoxiously luxurious—there is an in-house butcher people!—but bereft of the qualities that made the old version so endearing to baseball fans. I loved the new place; but it just didn’t feel like Yankee Stadium.

And immediately, an analogy to my own home hit me.

Yes, objectively, the new place is better in every way. But it’s extremely difficult to overcome the memories I have of its predecessor.

I’ve witnessed too many classic games at the old stadium to replicate the same level of emotional investment with the new park—much like my feeling towards my two houses. It’s like a girlfriend. The longer you’ve spent with her, the harder the breakup is, and the more willing you might be to ‘stay friends’ with the next girl rather than delve into another relationship.

And even though I’m a Red Sox fan, last Monday I realized that I was more than just friends with the old Yankee Stadium. Shea Stadium and I? We were definitely just friends. Acquaintances even.

But that bitch from the Bronx?

Me and her had something. I’ll be honest. It’s sad to see her go. There was NOTHING like a big night game at Yankee Stadium. The bright lights, the electricity, the great New York City baseball crowd—everything about her was perfect.

Yea, she treated me like crap and kicked my ass more times than not, but I’ll miss that. In a masochistic way, it’s what made her special. I’ll never forget leaving her in tears on October 16, 2003, moments after Aaron Boone drilled a Tim Wakefield knuckleball into my section. I even promised I’d never visit her again after that.

But those heartbreaks and suicidal feelings are what made the triumphs so special. One of the greatest parts of the 2004 World Series run was that the Red Sox were able to overcome the ghosts that they succumbed to just twelve months earlier, on that same Yankee Stadium field. I’m convinced that that victory has had a major influence in the current role-reversal that this rivalry has taken.

And now, rather than the still frames of 55,000 lunatics singing New York, New York and taunting me as they celebrated Boone’s HR into the night while I remained crying in Main Box Section 30, Row G, my lasting memory of the old Yankee Stadium is a Red Sox’ right-fielder, J.D. Drew, winning the All-Star Game MVP. Whowouldathunkit?

There's a lesson in all of this somewhere. In order to appreciate the future, you must accept the past for what it is—the past. Memories are meant to be cherished and though they will never be replicated, you can not let nostalgia stand in the way of creating new memories. My new house IS my home. It is up to me to invigorate it as such.

And as the Yankees attempt to do the same with their new home, what will some of the initial memories of the $1.6 billion palace be?

How about Jason Bay hitting mammoth home runs and Jonathan Papelbon striking out Robinson Cano with bases loaded for the final out while I’m sipping a Johnny Rockets’ milkshake and chowing down a freshly-cut steak sandwich from the aforementioned in-house butcher, delivered to me by my section’s personal waiter.

You know what? On second thoughts, I think I can get used to this place after all.

Ellsbury's Star Shines Brighter in October

During Game 2 of the 2001 ALDS between Oakland and New York, my brother Billy (10 years old at the time) asked me why the Red Sox never had players like Johnny Damon. Damon underperformed in his lone season with Oakland but remnants of the Kansas City star were evident once October rolled around.

Damon went 4-4 in Game 1 and added two more hits in Game 2—two Oakland victories. He patrolled the outfield gracefully, possessing a game-changing speed atop the order that affected how Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte operated.

Even Damon’s outs were productive. He saw 22 pitches when making his three outs that night. I’m not sure if Nomar Garciaparra ever saw that many pitches in a week, let alone three at-bats.

I didn’t have an answer for Billy.

The Red Sox, at the time, were finally ending the Carl Everett era while toying with the idea of a young, slim Trot Nixon patrolling center field. The farm system was barren and speed was not common amongst Red Sox. (Everett led the Sox with 9 SB in 2001.) Ironically, Dan Duquette heeded Billy’s advice and signed Damon that off-season. For once, the Red Sox had the prototypical leadoff hitter that they lacked my entire life.

Well, if Billy had a 10-year old younger brother watching last night’s ALDS game with him—which I’m glad he doesn’t, because that would be weird—“Why don’t the Red Sox ever have players like Johnny Damon?” is one question that would most certainly never been asked.

Why?

Because Jacoby Ellsbury is that player.  His presence changes the complexions of postseason games like no other Red Sox player on the roster.



Ask the Colorado Rockies what it was like pitching to Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz after Ellsbury reached base in 50% of his World Series plate appearances. Ask Mike Napoli (or Matt Napoli, as Buck Martinez calls him) how defenseless he feels with Ellsbury at first and Pedroia at the plate. Ask Mike Scioscia how it felt watching the 8th inning play out after Ellsbury robbed Mark Teixeira’s on a sinking line drive for the first out, preventing a potentially huge inning.

Ellsbury possesses a rare, multifaceted talent that is magnified during low-scoring October baseball. He’s reminiscent of a young Damon spraying line drives to all fields but with stronger plate discipline, more speed, Gold-Glove defense, and a Floyd Mayweather demeanor that flourishes as the lights get brighter.

Last night provided more of what Red Sox fans have grown to expect. Ellsbury went 3 for 5, stealing two bases and scoring a run, bumping his career playoff average up to a ridiculous .400 with a 1.022 OPS. (One of his outs was a triple that was incorrectly ruled a 3-base error) His RBI single in the 9th inning sealed Anaheim’s fate.

Ellsbury has established himself as the catalyst that stirs Boston’s “Dirty Water”. Some players go entire careers without accomplishing a fraction of what Ellsbury has in the seven playoff games he’s started in. Like Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two similarly hard-nosed homegrown players who have come to personify the Epstein Regime, the bigger the moment, the brighter Ellsbury’s star shines.

And best of all? 10-year old New Yorkers everywhere went to bed last night asking their older brothers why the New York Yankees don’t have players like Jacoby Ellsbury.

Season Preview Part V

12) Toronto Blue Jays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)

The longer it takes to finish this preview, the more and more likely I’ll second guess my placement of the Toronto Blue Jays. After three very competitive games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays completed a sleep of the defending World Champions earlier today, proving that they belong in the discussion with the AL’s megapowers. The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games each season for the past ten seasons. Stuck in the highly competitive AL East, the Blue Jays have the most victories of any team who has failed to make the playoffs during the Wild Card era. If Bud Selig chooses to implement my aforementioned “Swap a team to the NL” rule change, the Blue Jays would be a perennial NL powerhouse.

In 2008, the Blue Jays have their best all-around team to date. When healthy, their pitching staff, top to bottom, is the league’s best. Staff ace Roy Halladay is arguably the American League’s best starter. Halladay is a throwback to days when the starting pitcher’s objective was to finish the game that he started. Halladay’s is a refreshing act, one that is nearing extinction given today’s era of 6 IP, 3 ER quality starts. Following Halladay is uber-talented righthander A.J. Burnett, a serious breakout candidate given his contractual status. Burnett has an opt-out clause in his deal and he and his agent have indicated that if he pitches well this season, he will execute his right to opt-out and play the open market. When was the last time Burnett made all of his starts in one season, you ask? His last contract season, the year before signing with Toronto. 2008 has career year written all over it. Rounding out the rotation is a trio of high-upside righthanders in Dustin McGowan (the best of the bunch and future Cy Young candidate), Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, each of whom came on strong towards the end of 2007. Neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees can feel as comfortable with the back end of their rotation as Toronto does.

The Blue Jays will have no problems scoring either. Vernon Wells is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that zapped away all of his power in 2007. Feeling healthy once again, Wells is poised for a strong bounce back campaign. Alex Rios is an emerging superstar, perhaps the best right fielder in the American League. And if “The Big Hurt”, Frank Thomas can continue swinging his imposing bat (RE: Manny Delcarmen), as he has in the early going, the Jays will pose a very deep lineup that wears down weak opposing pitching staffs.

On the other side of the diamond, the addition of Scott Rolen, (who’s currently on the DL with a broken finger), bolsters an already solid defense. When Rolen finally joins second baseman Aaron Hill (who Peter Gammons declared the best all-around 2B in the AL East) and first baseman Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald is at shortstop, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive infield as well.

So, the question remains… Why third place? I wish I had a better answer. The Blue Jays would probably win half of the other divisions in baseball. Trapped in the AL East, they just need too much to go right for them to be left standing come October. This Blue Jays squad can win 90+ games, but more than likely they’ll endure another strong, but playoff-less season, whose reward will be playing spoiler to the Wild Card hopes of the AL East’s second=place team.


11) Tampa Bay Rays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)

The Tampa Bay Rays managed to get rid of the most negativity of any team, this offseason. After officially dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to our city’s capital and the disgruntled Delmon Young to the North Star State. The symbolism was evident. These are not your father’s older brother’s Rays.

BaseballProspectus.com’s famous PECOTA forecasting system is predicting 88 wins. While 88 might be a reach, the Rays enter 2008 with a strong chance to post their first winning season in franchise history. At the very least, the Rays will play a huge role in determining the AL East champions. If the Yankees are the Republicans and the Red Sox are the Democrats, the Rays are an Independent party looking to steal votes. The team they steal the most votes from is likely to lose the divisional race, and possibly the wild card as well.

The future is even brighter than the 2008 outlook. The organization is already looking ahead in that regard. Case in point: their decision to start Evan Longoria in AAA in an effort to delay his arbitration/free angency eligibility.
In 2010, the Rays could post the following lineup:
CF Desmond Jennings
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac
DH Rocco Baldelli (wouldn’t count on it, but let’s not forget how young he is)
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura (or Brignac at 2B with 2008’s 1st overall pick at SS)

With this rotation:
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Matt Garza
Whoever pans out of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jacob McGee

Davis has the best chance of the trio to be a high-quality starter. Niemann would profile well as a reliever, given his size and his injury history. McGee is a lefty with mid to high 90’s heat. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Even if all three fail to pan out, the Rays still have young pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine to round out the rotation. (Both guys pitched well down the '07 stretch) Still not the worst of options for a #5 starter.

Keeping in mind how unpredictable young players are, there has arguably never been a collection of talent as good as Tampa’s coming together at the exact same time. Most of the talent was assembled through high draft picks thanks in part to the team’s ineptitude. But proper decision making is just as vital, if not more so, when drafting that high. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has been just as bad for just as long, with much less to show for. The thought seems crazy, but playoff baseball in Tampa Bay is not far away. (To speed up the process, I wonder if Andrew Friedman would vote in my idea to switch to the National League!)

10) New York Yankees, 89-73, (2nd place in AL East)

A few years ago, Major League Baseball implemented an unbalanced schedule to capitalize on the growing interest in divisional rivalries. Divisional adversaries now played 18 or 19 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees benefited immensely. After pocketing the huge gates from their 19 wars with each other, both teams were rewarded with 38 games against the floundering Orioles and the atrocious Devil Rays, who have been amongst the league’s worst teams since their inception. However, in light of Toronto and Tampa’s significant improvement, the fun ends this season. The AL East runner-up is no longer guaranteed a playoff spot and as such, the Yankees come into 2008 with a possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Yankees enter 2008 in a quasi-rebuilding phase, eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, albeit not as defending champions. While much has been made of the Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy trio (CHK) and their symbolism of the Yankee paradigm shift towards youth, the Yankees remain an expensive team (baseball’s only $200 million team) with old parts. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano are the only regulars under 32 years old. Considering a baseball player’s prime generally exists between ages 27 and 31, it’s possible that the Yankees’ best players’ best seasons are behind them, yet players like Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui are still being paid like superstars. The presence of their contracts has left the Yankees pot-committed, forcing them to scramble to contend as these former stars exit their primes. It also alters management’s decision making in the short term. For example, the extra years tacked on to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera this offseason were irrational long-term and likely to be regretted, but they were completely necessary for the Yankees chances to compete in 2008.

But luckily, the end of the madness is in sight. The Yankees have more than $80 million coming off of their payroll in 2008 followed by another $30 million in 2009. The Cold War with Boston appears to have died down (though it’s now likely to spill over into the amateur draft), signaling a birth of a new era for both teams. Brian Cashman has finally been given the authority to build from within. A system that was barren just two seasons ago now ranks amongst the league’s best.

Joining the CHK trio is 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman, a 6’10’’ right hander from NC State, so potentially dominant that the Yankees drafted and signed him to a major league contract despite knowing that he needed Tommy John surgery. If healthy, Brackman could be the best of the bunch. On the opposite side of the field, the Yankees boast two future all star outfielders, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Jackson could be Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field as the Yankees move into their new stadium in 2009.

Highlighted by two phenomenal young superstars on the left side of the infield, the New York media perpetuates a misconception that the Mets are in better shape for the future than the Yankees. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Taking nothing away from David Wright (the best player in the NL) and Jose Reyes, but even with the discrepancy in age, neither player has ever had a better season than their Bronx counterpart. Fernando Martinez is the only Mets prospect who would crack the Yankees’ top-10, and even still, he’d fall behind Jackson and Tabata on the depth chart. And forget Chamberlain or Hughes, the Mets don’t have one starting pitcher in Kennedy’s class either.

The Yankees will be better than 5th best in the AL and 9th best in baseball. The best team in New York will likely have the second most wins in New York. In the NL East, the Yankees win the division by five games. However, young pitchers struggle with the quality of lineups in the AL and the Yankees do not have strong enough middle relief to compensate for nights when Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t have it. (For Kennedy, it will be much more often than Yankee fans had hoped. He has NL Central starter written all over him.) It also places inordinate pressure on Chien Ming Wang, an excellent pitcher who is unfairly overslotted as an ace in this staff, and Andy Pettitte to pitch deep into games during every start.

But the lineup will still score runs. Alex Rodriguez remains the game’s best hitter (maybe history’s?), Jeter is Jeter, and my MVP runner up pick, Bobby Abreu is in the best shape of his life, poised for a monster season, as he looks for one last huge contract. Will the offense be enough to push New York to the playoffs? It was last year, but the AL has improved immensely once again. This year, I think the Yankees miss the postseason by a hair. However, as the emergent developmental monster lurks towards the forefront, 2008 might be baseball’s final chance to witness an October without the Evil Empire for quite some time.

12) Los Angeles Angels, 90-72, (2nd place in AL West, AL Wild Card)

One of the worst aspects of laziness is that clicking “save as” can be too much work for me. Unsurprisingly, I lost my lengthy entry on the Angels when my brother closed out my Word document without saving it. As a result, I’ve been too demoralized to try recapturing my prior brilliance (explanation for my hiatus) so I will simply leave you with some bulletpoints to get a sense of where I was heading with the Angels preview.

---Predicting the Angels and Mariners to flip-flop from their place in the 2007 standings isn’t as exciting of an upset pick as, say, predicting San Diego over UConn in a March Madness office pool, but it’s a start. In March Madness, you’ll pick an upset because you’re familiar with a good team who seems susceptible to one, not because you are in love with the 13-seed’s chances. If anybody seems susceptible to falling off, it’s the veteran-laden Angels.

---Calling them the Los Angeles Angels is annoying and confusing.

---Which aging free agent center fielders will the Los Angeles teams overpay for this offseason? 2006 brought in Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre; 2007 brought Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Who will it be in 2008? Rocco Baldelli? Mike Cameron? A return of Jim Edmonds? Tune in and find out!

---Every time the Red Sox win a World Series, they sweep the Angels in the ALDS. A playoff without the Angels could be an ominous sign for Boston’s chances. The opposite could be said for New York’s chances.

For those keeping score at home...

According to ESPN.com, the Yankees have officially pulled Phil Hughes from their offer for Johan Santana. I'm not sure of the exact number, but if I ventured to guess, I'd say this is somewhere between the 203rd and 207th update in regards to the trade's status. Guess what? Nobody cares anymore. I understand what the Steinbrothers are trying do, but it's getting old. If Hank's winter meeting deadline proved anything, it's that Bill Smith is not going to fall victim to New York's bullying. His entire tenure as Minnesota GM will be judged on this one trade. Rushing a move, just to make a deal will serve him no good.

That being said, this 'news' serves some good as it gives me an excuse to comment on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. The three most important elements to a Santana deal are: Urgent need for a bonafide ace, Willingness to deal major-league ready prospects, and the ability to sign Santana to a long-term extension.

Right now, there are three teams being discussed as possible destinations. Boston, New York A, and New York B. And assuming that the Twins are not silly enough to hold on to him, there's really only 1 destination that makes total sense for both teams.

The Pretender

The Mets - No matter what Omar Minaya and the New York Post would like you to believe, the Mets are not a player in the Johan Santana derby. They might make a few headlines, and they might even force the Yankees or the Red Sox to throw in an Austin Jackson or a Ryan Kalish. However, when it comes down to it, the Mets just won't have what it takes to get a deal done. There is absolutely no way the Twins accept a package without a five-star prospect coming their way, or at the very least a handful of very good ones. The Mets seem to be of the belief that their package of mediocre quantity is better than quality. Forget the Red Sox and Yankees. The Mets can't even put together a better deal than the Dodgers or Angels, two teams who have been rather quiet on the Santana front.

I'm sure Carlos Gomez will be a decent baseball player one day, maybe even a notch or two better than Alex Escobar. And if Carlos Silva can get 40 million dollars to throw league average innings, then Philip Humber might not be such a terrible alternative. But these are not the players that you can sell a fanbase on after trading the best pitcher in baseball. The truth is, the Mets' farm system is just not good enough to bring in a player of Santana's stature. Their best talent is nowhere near major league ready. As high as people are on Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra, you're still talking about 19 year old kids. Most of their other prospects, mainly Mike Pelfrey and Humber, lost a lot of their luster following underwhelming performances at the major league level. The same thing happened to Lastings Milledge, and we all saw the return that Milledge brought in. I commend the Mets for putting in the effort, but if you only have $12,000 in your pocket, no Mercedes dealership is going to let you buy a 2008 C-Class just because you really need a Benz.

What must happen for the Mets to land Johan Santana:
The Red Sox and Yankees admit that they were bluffing all along, and that neither team ever really wanted Santana, and Minaya works out a deal with Smith while both Los Angeles GMs are unknowingly vacationing together somewhere.

II. The Contender

The Boston Red Sox - If the Red Sox wanted Santana, the press conference would have taken place already. It's that simple. No other team in baseball has the combination of excessive high-end major league ready, minor league talent that Minnesota needs along with the resources to ink Santana to a lucrative extension. What the Red Sox are missing is urgency. If this was January 11th, 2004, Santana would be in a Boston uniform. But after winning two World Series in four seasons, the Red Sox no longer need to rush into this type of move. They already have a bonafide ace. Josh Beckett came into his own in 2007 and is arguably the best right handed pitcher in baseball today. For once the Red Sox have built a team around strong pitching. Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester are each under 30 years old, and if anyone out of the Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Daniel Bard group pan out, the Red Sox will continue to have one of the best rotations in the league. The pieces are in place for the Red Sox to be a very good team for a very long time. Tinkering with the organizational philosophy that Epstein has put into place will only hurt the Red Sox in the long run.

Honestly, I'd feel much more comfortable with Epstein figuring out a way to get Jed Lowrie's bat into the lineup (Who wants Julio? Any takers?) than exploring a deal that would send 5 prospects Minnesota's way, for a pitcher who you'll be paying a premium for the decline phase of his career. Now if Minnesota has any interest in a Bowden, Bard, Coco Crisp and Jason Place package....

What must happen for the Red Sox to land Santana:
A) Theo Epstein wakes up one day and decides that he's not just driving up New York's price and that he really does want Johan Santana
or
B) The Twins get fed up with the Steinbrothers' antics and accept an offer like the one I just made up just to spite New York. (0.00001%)

I'm just not sold on the Red Sox trading away 6 or 7 years of Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Jed Lowrie for one season of Santana + the right to buy 5-7 more seasons of a 30+ year old pitcher at a record setting contract with peripheral stats trending in the wrong direction.

III. The Destination

The New York Yankees - The Yankees are the one team whose desire for an ace matches their ability to deliver the talent that Minnesota needs in return. While the Yankees have a little less to offer than Boston, they do have a substantial urgency to get a trade done. Watching Josh Beckett dominate this postseason for their arch nemesis, while the Yankees extended their championship drought, proved just how important a shut down ace of that caliber is. As long as Chien Ming Wang is headlining the Yankees' rotation, the Yankees will be entering a 5 or 7 game series at a disadvantage. Joba Chamberlain will eventually become that guy, but for a team that dealt out $400 million dollars worth of contract extensions this offseason, the Yankees can not afford to wait it out.

Adding Santana to a rotation slides both Wang and Chamberlain down a slot and turns their rotation from an uncertainty to a strength, one that could compete with Boston's. Giving up Hughes is not easy, but realistically speaking, he's the only tough piece to let go of. Melky Cabrera is a glorified 4th outfielder whose flashy, strong arm in center field has caused his weak bat to be vastly overrated by the New York fans. Ian Kennedy and his command, control, makeup, and whatever other words that scouts toss around for pitchers without front-end stuff seems better suited for the NL Central than the brutally grinding lineups of the AL East.

The Red Sox are the defending World Champions. The ball is in New York's court. If neither team makes the trade, the Red Sox still enter 2007 as the favorites. If New York makes the Santana deal, they step back into the championship contender conversation. It would certainly hurt the Yankees much more if Boston gets Santana than it would hurt Boston if the Yankees were make the deal. I think that by April, that fear will cause the Steinbrothers to pull the trigger.

As for the Mets? Something tells me Joe Blanton is available.