Clueless Joe (Girardi) Stuck in a Box with Yankee Bullpen

Last night's 4-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox rests squarely on Joe Girardi's shoulders. Two words caused him to lose the game, neither of which are "Joba" or "Chamberlain".

The two words are conventional thinking.

Girardi managed last night's game the same way that 99.9% of managers and wanna-be managers would have: Push C.C. Sabathia to the limit, hoping to get 23 or 24 outs from him. When Sabathia tires, have Mariano Rivera ready to get the final 3 or 4 outs of the game.

His train of thought ironically required very little thought, resulting in a world-class failure for a man paid a lot of money to win baseball games.

When Girardi manages "by a formula", he becomes oblivious to any volatile external factors that influence a game's outcome. Baseball is the only sport where game context is ignored from decision making.

Teams constantly look to create a managerial blueprint to make late inning managing easier for the men in charge. "He's our 8th inning guy!," is the praise often placed upon a J.J. Putz or a Ryan Madson. (As a reliever, Chamberlain would likely hold the same status in Girardi's pen.)

The sole purpose of this is to shift the blame of failure from the manager to the players. If an 8th inning guy blows a game, the manager is exempt from blame because he 'followed the script'.

But could you ever imagine Tom Coughlin deciding before a game, "No matter what, with 5 minutes left in the 4th quarter, Eli Manning is throwing the ball down field to Steve Smith"? What if it's 2nd and 1? What if the opponent has a good pass defense? Shouldn't things like this matter?

To ignore the context of the game, in any sport, is irresponsible. Smart teams avoid managing themselves into a box.

Ask any Red Sox fan who their "8th inning guy" is and you might get five or six different answers. Is it Manny Delcarmen? Takashi Saito? Hideki Okajima? Justin Masterson? Ramon Ramirez? Daniel Bard? Each of these pitchers has gotten big outs in the big moment this season.

And that's the intrinsic beauty of the Red Sox bullpen: there is no 8th inning guy. Theo Esptein wants Terry Francona to make decisions best suited for each individual game during each game, not before them.

You need a strikeout? Go to Delcarmen. You need a ground ball? Bring in Masterson. A couple of tough lefties coming up? Hello Okajima. Managing by a predetermined formula, irrespective of a game's context would significantly reduce Francona's effectiveness as a manager.

Which brings us to last night's Red Sox-Yankees game.

After allowing the single to Nick Green, there is one pitcher in the Yankee bullpen who made sense to face Pedroia-Drew-Youkilis-Bay. With the game on the line, it's ridiculous to allow the Alfredo Aceves's of the world to lose them for you. Your best pitchers should be called upon to get your biggest outs, which is why Mariano Rivera should have been summoned to get Sabathia out of the jam.

Rivera is the best pitcher in the Yankee bullpen. Forget about the 9th inning. The game was on the line in the 8th with the heart of the Red Sox order coming up. Survive the Red Sox threat in the 8th inning with your best pitcher on the mound and worry about the 9th inning later. If Rivera loses the game, so be it. At least, the game was lost with your best pitcher on the mound.

With 6 outs remaining, wouldn't the Yankees have been better suited to have Rivera pitching to Pedroia-Drew-Youkilis-Bay instead of a tired Sabathia, Aceves, and Coke?

Most importantly, Rivera does not have to get all 6 outs. If Aceves and Coke are needed to get two or three outs, they would be much better suited facing David Ortiz, Jason Varitek, and Rocco Baldelli in the 9th than the heart of the order with men on base and Fenway Park rocking in the 8th.

But it's commonplace for baseball managers to stick to the script, a sport stuck badly in a "This is how things are done" frame of mind. Managers manage for the save (statistic) rather than the win. At least Rivera will be well-rested for tonight's 9th inning appearance with a 3-run lead against Omir Santos, Fernando Tatis, and Jeremy Reed.

Yesterday wasn't an example of why Joba should be in the bullpen; it was an example of why managers should start thinking outside the box.

The 2009 NBA Finals: A Dream Matchup Awaits

Three weeks ago, Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin squared off in a classic seven-game series that Gary Bettman could have only dreamt about before the playoffs.

The NHL’s two best players brought much-needed mainstream attention to the sport, highlighting what has been an excellent season for the league.

The only thing missing was higher stakes, as Bettman surely would have preferred the series to have taken place in the Stanley Cup Finals. But for now, as each player skates in the Eastern Conference, Bettman’s desire for Crosby and Ovechkin to compete against one another for a championship remains an impossibility.

For David Stern, on the other hand, this wish is becoming reality.

As the NBA’s Conference Finals approach their respective conclusions, a variety of enticing NBA Finals remain in play. Any mix-and-match among the remaining teams’ stars produces a marketable matchup that any true basketball fan can enjoy.

If you’re interested in a contrast of playing styles, a Denver-Orlando battle includes the best pure scorer in the NBA, Carmelo Anthony, against the game’s best young big man, Dwight Howard.

It might not be the series you’d select with your first choice, but after getting over the initial disappointment, fans would be delighted by the quality of play provided by these two teams.
Denver-Orlando is a solid ‘consolation prize’ for NBA fans.

Or, how about witnessing the first playoff series between Anthony and Lebron James, the same two players who were expected to recreate the Magic Johnson-Larry Bird rivalry upon their selections from the same 2003 draft class?

Sure, fellow Class of ’03 graduate Dwyane Wade beat ‘Melo and Lebron to the punch by winning the 2006 Championship, but he did so without getting past Melo or Lebron (as well as with the help of Shaquille O’Neal).

A Denver-Cleveland Finals would be the first playoff series pitting two of the three young stars against one another, potentially sparking a decade of Sugar Ray Leonard/Marvin Hagler/Tommy Hearns-like playoff series' amongst the trio. For what’s left in Kobe Bryant’s prime, he can play Roberto Duran in the analogy.

But there’s only one encounter that can approximate the NBA’s edition of Crosby-Ovechkin.
Each of the previous series remains second-fiddle to the one fans have been waiting for since 2005—the two best scorers in the country finally getting a chance to go head-to-head for all the marbles.

On one side is the explosive jump shooter with a propensity to score in bunches. On the other, is the bearded 6’9’’ scorer with the multi-faceted offensive game.

They are two men who have continually been compared to one another—by fans and the media alike—since their respective ascensions to the top. A showdown in the NBA Finals, five years in the making, would be a fitting culmination.

Which is why, with each team one win away from the NBA Championship, David Stern needs a Los Angeles Lakers-Orlando Magic NBA Finals. What better way to finally settle the Adam Morrison vs. J.J. Redick debate than a seven game series on the world’s greatest stage?



We have been deprived of this matchup for too long. Now is the time to finally make it happen!

Sure, both players choked in college, leaving the media and rural-America without the Duke-Gonzaga NCAA Championship Game that each so desperately longed for. But America is the home of redemption.

And nothing would scream ‘redemption for the coverage given to the two most hyped college basketball players of the decade’ more than watching Redick and Morrison cheer their NBA teammates to a championship, while actual NBA-talented players compete on the court.

Forget those puppet commercials; this would truly be amazing.

(What? You mean there’s a different series you expected me to pull for? Nah, couldn't be.)

The Birth of a...Dare I Say...Witness?!?

Greatness is truly rare. It is the rarity that makes the term so special.

I know this sounds obvious, but let it sink in for a second.

How easily do we toss a word like “great” around? Such an immense compliment should be reserved for only the most prestigious food, people, skills, accomplishments, etc, yet the word “great” gets used in description routinely.

Most of us will go a lifetime without being great at a single thing; I certainly will. I’m not knocking myself but being realistic. Anything I do well, a large portion of the world can do better.

The world is filled with many people who are extra ordinary and few who are extraordinary.

And this is what makes the extraordinary, remarkable.

It’s not easy for a “LeBron James-hater” to reflect on greatness one day after LeBron’s thrilling last-second winner against Orlando. But LeBron’s shot was symbolic of much more than a change in Game 2’s outcome. The Shot could usher in the King’s Era.

LeBron will undoubtedly monopolize the NBA Championship during his prime. I’m resigned to this fact. However, his surreal performance during the 2009 Playoffs has not only accelerated the process, but also eased the atrocity that I once associated with LeBron’s inevitable reign.

Don’t get me wrong. The man is still a clown; a New York City-Swagger Jacker from the Midwest in the truest sense of the phrase. And much of his game would be illegal by NFL standards—I’ve actually seen Justin Tuck get penalized 15 yards for throwing offensive linemen to the floor in emulation of what LeBron does on his way to the basket.

Plus, I’d be shocked if he hasn’t spent some time with Jose Canseco over the last few years. If he had Allen Iverson’s attitude, he’d have been sitting in front of Congress with Roger Clemens by now.

But if his buffoonery is what I must put up with in exchange for the exceptionally dominant performances by a once-in-a-lifetime talent, it is an exchange I may have to consider. I love sports too much to blindly dismiss what he is accomplishing. Best of all-time is actually in play here. Think about that: of all time.

So I ask… Am I a Witness?

I’ve tried not to be. I root for Carmelo. I root for Kobe. I take pride in finding pictures like this:

where LeBron looks like a genetically-jacked up combination of Barry Bonds, Tank Johnson, and Hulk Hogan, just six years after looking, er, normal.

But it is becoming clearer that those, like myself, uninterested in rejoicing in the LeBron era are simply wasting their energy. I have enjoyed going against the grain during LeBron’s ascension to the top of the sport, but I recognize that I am fighting a losing battle.

I came to a similar realization in 1998, when Michael Jordan eliminated the Reggie Miller-led Indiana Pacers that I was rooting for. I had been so sick of Jordan winning every season.

But following that series, I decided to stop hating, and finally appreciate the greatness that I was witnessing, albeit way too late (No pun intended).

But the sick part? Jordan was 34 years old, completing his final season. LeBron is 10 years younger (!), barely having reached his physical prime.

So again I ask…Am I a Witness?

Unfortunately, I think it’s safe to say that anyone paying attention to the NBA for the next 10 seasons has no choice but to be. The marketing campaign is right; we really are all witnesses.

But for now, I’ll be off hiding in Witness Protection as I wait for this reverse jinx to kick in.

I love this stadium baby but I can't see straight anymoreeeeee

About two years ago, my family moved into a new house.

I like the new house. It’s bigger, it’s nicer, and it’s in a better neighborhood. It’s an obvious upgrade in just about every physical way.

Friends of mine, who have been to both, would be hard-pressed to find even a single aspect of my new house that they liked better in the old one.

But after two years, there is an emotional attachment missing that I have been unable to develop.

Curious, I began thinking: What makes a house one’s home?

I pose this question one week after my first visit to the New Yankee Stadium. A ballpark so obnoxiously luxurious—there is an in-house butcher people!—but bereft of the qualities that made the old version so endearing to baseball fans. I loved the new place; but it just didn’t feel like Yankee Stadium.

And immediately, an analogy to my own home hit me.

Yes, objectively, the new place is better in every way. But it’s extremely difficult to overcome the memories I have of its predecessor.

I’ve witnessed too many classic games at the old stadium to replicate the same level of emotional investment with the new park—much like my feeling towards my two houses. It’s like a girlfriend. The longer you’ve spent with her, the harder the breakup is, and the more willing you might be to ‘stay friends’ with the next girl rather than delve into another relationship.

And even though I’m a Red Sox fan, last Monday I realized that I was more than just friends with the old Yankee Stadium. Shea Stadium and I? We were definitely just friends. Acquaintances even.

But that bitch from the Bronx?

Me and her had something. I’ll be honest. It’s sad to see her go. There was NOTHING like a big night game at Yankee Stadium. The bright lights, the electricity, the great New York City baseball crowd—everything about her was perfect.

Yea, she treated me like crap and kicked my ass more times than not, but I’ll miss that. In a masochistic way, it’s what made her special. I’ll never forget leaving her in tears on October 16, 2003, moments after Aaron Boone drilled a Tim Wakefield knuckleball into my section. I even promised I’d never visit her again after that.

But those heartbreaks and suicidal feelings are what made the triumphs so special. One of the greatest parts of the 2004 World Series run was that the Red Sox were able to overcome the ghosts that they succumbed to just twelve months earlier, on that same Yankee Stadium field. I’m convinced that that victory has had a major influence in the current role-reversal that this rivalry has taken.

And now, rather than the still frames of 55,000 lunatics singing New York, New York and taunting me as they celebrated Boone’s HR into the night while I remained crying in Main Box Section 30, Row G, my lasting memory of the old Yankee Stadium is a Red Sox’ right-fielder, J.D. Drew, winning the All-Star Game MVP. Whowouldathunkit?

There's a lesson in all of this somewhere. In order to appreciate the future, you must accept the past for what it is—the past. Memories are meant to be cherished and though they will never be replicated, you can not let nostalgia stand in the way of creating new memories. My new house IS my home. It is up to me to invigorate it as such.

And as the Yankees attempt to do the same with their new home, what will some of the initial memories of the $1.6 billion palace be?

How about Jason Bay hitting mammoth home runs and Jonathan Papelbon striking out Robinson Cano with bases loaded for the final out while I’m sipping a Johnny Rockets’ milkshake and chowing down a freshly-cut steak sandwich from the aforementioned in-house butcher, delivered to me by my section’s personal waiter.

You know what? On second thoughts, I think I can get used to this place after all.

Cadbury Creme Eggs and Ricky Hatton

When I was younger, there was a particular Cadbury Crème Egg commercial that aired around Easter time each year.

The premise was simple: The Cadbury bunny was the star of the holiday and every other animal was entrenched with envy. Naturally, each animal auditioned to become the Cadbury bunny. After adding a plastic set of bunny ears, every dog, cat, goat, bird, and pig tried to fool the audience into accepting them as the new Cadbury spokesman.

But when it is all said and done, what exactly is an animal with plastic bunny ears?

It is the exact same animal as it is without the bunny ears.

And Ricky Hatton, under the guise of a jabbing, defensive, Floyd Mayweather Sr.-trained prodigy, is the exact same Ricky Hatton he was in the past. The song didn't lie—there really is only one Ricky Hatton.

I was fooled by the bunny ears.

Result:
Manny Pacquiao KO Nick Xouris in six minutes and 59 seconds.

Look for the Hitman to Pull Off the Upset

Ricky Hatton has traveled this road before.

The Las Vegas megafight at MGM Grand, the 24/7 series, the bright lights of HBO PPV, the opponent universally regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world—the script for Saturday’s showdown with Manny Pacquiao is practically a replica of his fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Dec. 2007.

The subtle differences between the two fights, however, will lead to one major difference: the outcome. Unlike 16 months ago, Hatton will leave Las Vegas victorious.

-----------

Hatton-Pacquiao has become a tale of unsubstantiated mainstream perception.

Hatton is considered a loser for being stopped by a brilliantly placed check hook—arguably the most perfectly-executed punch I have ever seen—by one of the most talented boxers who ever lived.

Pacquaio, on the other hand, has been deemed this generation’s Henry Armstrong, a warrior capable of defeating all-comers at any weight, after blowout victories over an uninspiring David Diaz at 135 pounds and a completely washed up Oscar De La Hoya at 147 pounds.

For Hatton, the perception could not be farther from the truth. Though I had him significantly behind on points, Hatton’s swarming style kept Mayweather—a much larger, more talented opponent—uncomfortable for a substantial portion of the fight.

Mayweather needed his “A Game” to finally put Hatton away, something Pretty Boy Floyd very rarely has to do. That is a testament to the competitor Hatton is. There is no shame in a junior welterweight losing to the best welterweight alive.

For Pacquiao, the perception could be the truth—there just isn’t sufficient enough evidence to be sure. Despite his last two victories, Pacquiao has still not proven that he can beat a heavier, stronger world class opponent.

De La Hoya was a shell of his former self and Diaz was a champion in the sense of the word that just about everyone in today’s era of multiple weight classes and sanctioning bodies is a champion—Hatton would have disposed of both fighters in similar fashion.

That’s not to say Pacquiao is some slouch. His performances in both fights were remarkable. But each of the questions posed before the De La Hoya fight remain unanswered: Can Pacquiao withstand a naturally bigger fighter’s power? Can Pacquiao hurt a fighter who is used to taking punches from heavier-handed opponents? The answer has yet to be seen.

Yes, Pacquiao is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. The outcome of his war with Hatton should have no bearing on that status (though Mayweather’s return to the ring will). But pound-for-pound rankings do not guarantee victory against any lesser ranked opponent at any weight. They simply measure a fighter’s ability relative to his size.

For example, Max Kellerman, formerly of ESPN Radio, deems Nate Robinson the best player in the NBA, inch-for-inch. This isn’t to say that Robinson is better than Tim Duncan or capable of beating Kobe Bryant one on one, but that in Kellerman’s opinion, Robinson is better relative to his height than other players are relative to their own.

The criteria for these mythical rankings is entirely subjective and in many ways meaningless. Pacquiao may be better pound-for-pound, but this does not make him a shoo-in to defeat Hatton. Mayweather’s ability to do so has no bearing on this fight.

This time around, Hatton is the bigger boxer at his optimal weight. When the bell rings, it is conceivable that Hatton will enter the ring anywhere from 150 to 160 pounds. Unlike against De La Hoya, where Manny actually entered the ring as the heavier fighter, on Saturday night, Pacquiao will be lucky to weigh within 10 pounds of Hatton.

And more importantly, Pacquiao’s “A Game” is not Mayweather’s. He does not possess Mayweather’s size, power, or defense—he will likely get hit with more flush shots in rounds one and two than Mayweather was hit with all night. His style is much more conducive to getting hit, precisely the type of opponent that Hatton can bully and work inside against.

At the junior-welterweight limit, Hatton has never lost a fight. The preceding sentence will remain true when this fight is over.

They say there’s only one Ricky Hatton. Saturday night, that one Ricky Hatton will have only one more victory.

Prediction: Hatton KO11

Does Anyone Want to Fight? Anyone?

After defeating Antonio Margarito two years ago, the big-money fights Paul Williams longed for should have followed. Such a high-magnitude victory usually translates into a winning lottery ticket, especially given the abundance of superstars who were making a living at 147 pounds. (Miguel Cotto, Shane Mosley, Floyd Mayweather Jr., etc)

But ironically, Williams’s performance had the inverse effect. One by one, boxing’s top welterweights explored every possible option other than stepping into the ring with “The Punisher”. His lottery ticket remained uncashed.
Author Poll Results

"You see a lot of other guys on TV, they say they're the best and they'll fight everybody and all this and that, but when it comes down to it, they won't fight anybody," said Williams. "It's gotten to the point where I don't want to call guys out anymore, because it's gotten to where, if I call them out, they don't want to fight."

It’s hard to blame anyone for thinking twice about fighting Williams. He is far from your traditional prizefighter.

Though he has chosen to bounce around weight classes in search of any opponent willing to fight him, Williams feels most comfortable at welterweight (147 lbs), a division where his wiry 6’1’’ frame gives him a distinct competitive advantage. The average welterweight ranges from 5’7’’-5’9’’. Margarito, considered a giant at welterweight, is just 5’11’’.

Not since Tommy Hearns has a great fighter possessed similar physical attributes—Williams likens a created player in Fight Night Four much more than a real human being. Did I mention he is a southpaw, with an awkward aggressive style unlike any in the sport?

Throw in the fact he combines the reach of a heavyweight (his 82-inch reach is longer than both Klitchko brothers) with the workrate of a lightweight (rounds of 100-plus punches are the norm), and it’s easy to see why “The Punisher” has stolen Margarito’s moniker of the “most feared man in boxing”.

So while boxers in three different weight classes take turns avoiding the South Carolinian, one fellow southpaw—who also knows a thing or two about being avoided—has finally stepped up to fight Williams.

Former junior middleweight champion Winky Wright will challenge Williams in a middleweight bout Saturday night on HBO World Championship Boxing. It will be Wright’s first in-ring action since a 2007 loss to Bernard Hopkins.

Wright sympathized with Williams’s struggle to find worthwhile opponents. "It's tough when nobody wants to fight you and you see all these other fighters getting fights," Wright told reporters recently. "You can't get the fight just because nobody wants to fight you. It ain't because you ain't good enough. It's just they don't want to fight you. So, you know, I know how Paul feels about being avoided."

Wright attributes his current 21-month layoff to a lack of opponents willing to risk looking bad against a fighter of his defensive prowess. Even those who defeat him, generally look boring or unimpressive when doing so.

As a result, Wright poses a much different threat than Williams.

On Saturday night, two of the sport’s most avoided fighters will demonstrate against each other, what type of threat that is.

Williams has been searching for the fight that will propel him to boxing superstardom. An impressive victory over Wright can do the trick.

But what if Williams gets too impressive and delivers the first knockout of Wright’s legendary career?

The most feared man in boxing will probably have to move up to heavyweight to find an opponent for his next fight.


Prediction

Paul Williams wins via 12-round split decision.

Williams simply has too much to lose. A victory over Wright brings him one step closer to becoming the superstar that he deserves to be—at which point, great fighters will be forced to fight him.

That said, Wright possesses an excruciatingly tough defensive style to look great against. I think he’ll keep Williams honest with his jab and win the fight on one scorecard but Williams’s activity and workrate will prevail in a very close fight.

2009 Predictions

AL East:
Boston
Tampa Bay*
New York
Toronto
Baltimore

Al Central:
Minnesota
Cleveland
Kansas City
Chicago
Detroit

AL West:
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

AL MVP:
Evan Longoria

AL Cy Young:
Francisco Liriano


NL East:
Atlanta
Philadelphia
New York
Florida
Washington

NL Central:
Milwaukee
Chicago
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh

NL West:
Los Angeles
Arizona*
Colorado
San Francisco
San Diego

NL MVP:
Albert Pujols

NL Cy Young:
Dan Haren


Division Series:
Boston over Minnesota in 4
Tampa Bay over Oakland in 3
Milwaukee over Los Angeles in 5
Arizona over Atlanta in 5

Championship Series:
Boston over Tampa Bay in 7
Arizona over Milwaukee in 6

World Series
Boston over Arizona in 5

Small is the New Tall

The 2009 MLB Season begins Sunday night. To celebrate, I am throwing away every pair of Timberland boots that I own.

Those extra two inches of height? Who needs them! 6-footers are so 2003. That's right. The days when being tall was cool are long gone.

As we exit the first decade of the 21st century, two of baseball’s brightest stars are ushering in the short guy era. It’s time to start celebrating being 5’9’’! (Ok, 5’7’’ & ¼, when I kick off the Nikes.)

Need proof?

Take a look at the cover stars of MLB ’09: The Show and MLB 2K9:

American League MVP Dustin Pedroia who is listed at 5’9’’—a height that must include the telephone book he was standing on—and National League Cy Young Tim Lincecum, a string-beany fireballer, who only reaches his listed height of 5’11’’ while standing on the rubber in his cleats.

Here are two of the league’s most marketable players—and each will get carded at an R-rated movie.

Neither player needs to show ID on the baseball field, however.

In 2008, Pedroia became the third player in MLB history to win Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player in consecutive seasons, joining Cal Ripken Jr. and Ryan Howard. He was the first second baseman to win the AL MVP since Nellie Fox of the White Sox in 1959.

Lincecum’s been similarly successful in his two seasons. In 2008, he became the first second-year pitcher to nab the Cy Young Award since Dwight Gooden and Bret Saberhagen in 1985. His delivery is often the subject of biomechanical analyses as scientists attempt to figure out how somebody his size can throw a baseball that hard.

Pedroia and Lincecum are throwbacks to a time when regular-sized men flourished, a pleasant contrast to the gargantuan freaks that dominated the sport during the late-90’s.

"I hear all the time that I'm not big enough, that I'm not fast enough, that I'm not strong enough, all of that stuff. Honestly, I don't see any difference between me and any other guy”, says Pedroia.

“If I could out-hustle the other guy or do the little things to help my team win, then it will make up for me being smaller than them. Being big has nothing to do with playing baseball.”

As for Lincecum, the star flamethrower acknowledges the impact his success can have on smaller pitchers.

“It gives everybody else out there who is not a big person the motivation and the inspiration that they know they can do it, too”, says Lincecum.

Right on, Timmy.

All aboard, short guys. The new era continues Sunday.

Until then? I’m going to enjoy these last 5 days with my Timberlands.

July 11th: HBO and The Return of Floyd Mayweather Jr.

A week ago, July 11th had little significance in the boxing world.

Sure, HBO was holding the date open for a World Championship Boxing (WCB) event, but the card was expected to be filled with a cruiserweight title match between Bernard Hopkins and IBF champion Tomasz Adamek. With little else on B-Hop's horizon, a jump to the 200-lb weight class presented the only worthwhile challenge left for the legendary light-heavyweight.

Not only did the fight make sense, but Hopkins-Adamek represented an ideal World Championship Boxing fight:
--The July date fit both fighters’ schedules. (Adamek last fought in February; Hopkins has been inactive since his October dismantling of Kelly Pavlik.)
--The fighters’ combined purse would likely be in range with an average WCB card’s budget.
--And most importantly, on paper, the fight fit the mold of competitive, entertaining encounters that HBO has strived to deliver its subscribers this year. HBO Sports executive Ross Greenburg promised fans that the network was going to demand competitive fights from promoters in 2009, and thus far, he’s done a tremendous job. Pay-per-view has no longer been an option for marginal fights.

Consider the first quarter of 2009:

In just three months, HBO has delivered two fight-of-the-year candidates (Berto-Collazo and Marquez-Diaz), along with a colossal PPV-worthy welterweight battle (Sugar Shane Mosley’s KO upset of Antonio Margarito) and a handful of top prospect showcases featuring future stars like Juan Manuel Lopez, Chris Arreola, Victor Ortiz, and James Kirkland.

Two more stellar fights—an April 11th main event featuring Paul Williams & Winky Wright and a welterweight unification bout between Miguel Cotto and Joshua Clottey in June—are also scheduled for HBO.

Fans are no longer being asked to shell out $59.95 each time a big name fighter enters the ring. The only fight currently scheduled for PPV is May 2nd’s junior-welterweight showdown between Manny Pacquiao and Ricky Hatton. It’s possible that the only positive to come from the state of the economy has been the market correction it has provided boxing. HBO has been forced to properly assess what belongs on its flagship boxing show.

Last year, fights that ought to have aired on World Championship Boxing (Pavlik-Hopkins, Calzaghe-Jones, Trinidad-Jones) were erroneously placed on PPV, leaving WCB cards barren of competitive fighting. What was the best WCB fight of 2008? Calzaghe-Hopkins? De La Hoya-Forbes? I can’t remember one that stood out. Remember WWF Superstars? Hulk Hogan would spend many Saturday mornings wrestling jobbers to get ready for his big match on PPV. World Championship Boxing had become WWF Superstars, a marketing tool for HBO’s PPV fights. Thankfully, the market correction has reversed this trend.

So all’s well in the boxing world, correct?

Enter Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Pretty Boy Floyd’s advisors have leaked that the former pound-for-pound king is ready to return to the ring for a summer tune-up fight, before challenging the winner of Pacquiao-Hatton in the fall. And the night that Mayweather finds most attractive? July 11th, World Championship Boxing’s open date.

Normally, the decision would be a no-brainer. Tell Hopkins and Adamek to take a hike, and let the premier fighter in the sport reestablish his place atop the pound-for-pound list as the whole world watches. However, Mayweather is looking for a PPV purse, for what could be an uncompetitive tune-up fight—precisely the type of fight that Greenburg has avoided in 2009.

Greenberg has a decision to make. If he signs Hopkins-Adamek for July 11th, boxing fans receive another excellent, intriguing fight, adding to an already impressive year. But he also risks alienating Mayweather, America’s greatest post-De La Hoya mainstream boxing star. HBO would hate to risk losing Mayweather’s future PPV business, as a cash cow against Pacquiao looms in the horizon.

Can Greenburg rationalize paying Mayweather over $5 million to familiarize himself with a boxing ring? If Mayweather intends to fight an uninspiring opponent, as been his MO at times, Greenburg risks alienating boxing fans who have been elated with the action that HBO has provided in ‘09. But if Pretty Boy Floyd’s opponent is somebody like Juan Manuel Marquez, then the answer becomes simple.

This is the avenue Greenburg must explore.

Mayweather has only been out of action for 15 months. How badly can a fighter of his age and skill need a tune-up? Winky Wright, who is five years older, is fighting Paul Williams after a longer layoff. Pony up whatever price it takes to bring Mayweather back against a skillful opponent and everyone will be satisfied. The decision will certainly pay off later in the year, after Mayweather and Pacquiao square off under the MGM Grand’s bright lights on HBO PPV.

The ball is in your court Mr. Greenburg. Make it happen.


EDIT: Minutes after I wrote this, Dan Rafael of ESPN.com announced that discussions for Hopkins-Adamek are off due to a tremendous discrepancy in both fighters’ purse demands. The decision for Greenberg is much easier now. Time to bring back Mayweather, this time REGARDLESS of who he wants to fight!

Is Curt Schilling a Hall of Famer?

Hall of Fame arguments usually annoy me.

Outdated benchmarks, subjective criteria, and baseball writers on moral high horses have turned Cooperstown into a circus. An entire generation of great baseball players—stars like Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, and Sammy Sosa—are likely to be denied entrance in spite of their on-field achievements. Apparently, in this strange Hall of Fame universe, their accomplishments never occurred.

So of course, each time that a player of significance retires, the inevitable “Is he a Hall of Famer?” discussion follows. The same was true yesterday, when Curt Schilling announced his retirement from baseball after 20 seasons.

Assuming that Schilling stays true to his word—my gut still tells me that he’ll be pitching in Chicago or Tampa Bay this summer—he will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2013. (Schilling’s retirement is retroactive to 2007 because he was injured for all of 2008) 2013 is also the first year of HOF eligibility for Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, and Sosa, each of whom is heavily suspected of steroid use. Baseball writers will undoubtedly have a field day with this class.

So while I usually avoid the “Is he in or is he out?” arguments, Schilling’s case is far too fascinating to ignore.

Schill finished his career with 216 wins, 146 losses, 3116 strikeouts, a 3.46 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. He won 20 games three times; in 1997, he won 17 with the worst team in the National League. Among all pitchers with at least 1,500 innings, Schilling has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio. He struck out 300+ batters three times. In 2002, while striking out 316, Schilling walked just 32 hitters.

On the surface level, his career totals may not scream Cooperstown. However, the Hall of Fame criteria that today’s pitchers are evaluated against is nonsensical and outdated.

Writers have long assigned “magic numbers” for players to attain that reward longevity and perseverance, while ignoring dominance. The magic numbers are inherently flawed as they are based on the standards of a previous era—one in which, does not resemble today’s game in the slightest.

For example, baseball’s magic pitching number is 300 wins. A starting pitcher who wins 300 games has always been assured a spot in Cooperstown. This standard may have worked in the 60s and 70s but it is archaic today.

In today’s game, pitchers get hurt far too frequently, do not throw often enough (expansion to 5-man rotations has limited # of games started), and do not throw deep into enough games (pitch counts have limited # of decisions awarded to starters) make 300 wins a Hall of Fame standard, for even the best pitchers.

Take any 300 game winner and compare his innings pitched, games started, and complete games to Schilling. Most, if not all, have roughly 2000 more innings pitched, 250-300 more games started, and 100-200 more complete games. And Schilling was considered a horse of his era! How is he supposed to compare win totals with pitchers who threw the equivalent of ten more 200 inning seasons than him?

More importantly, Schilling’s production occurred during the greatest offensive era in baseball history. His ERA was nearly a full run lower than league average throughout his career. The earned run averages of lesser pitchers in the Hall of Fame like Phil Neikro, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, Don Sutton, and Gaylord Perry each hovered around their league’s averages throughout their careers. Carlton’s 2.99 ERA in 1968, when the league ERA was 2.90 should never be considered as impressive as Schilling’s 3.54 ERA in 1999, when league average was 4.80.

And as critics discredit the batting statistics of today’s juiced up era, shouldn’t the opposite be done for pitchers? Shouldn’t a pitcher like Schilling, a longtime advocate for steroid testing, be given credit for pitching in the greatest offensive era of all time? Wouldn’t this make sense?

And lastly, the most important aspect of Schilling’s inclusion to Cooperstown: His post-season resume. Schilling is arguably the greatest playoff pitcher in baseball history. His 11-2 record and 2.23 ERA are the best among pitchers with 100+ postseason innings. Schill pitched in four World Series, winning three championships. His teams are 10-2 in series that he pitched in.

Take any Hall of Fame starting pitcher from this era. Would you want him on the mound over Schilling in a Game 7? Didn’t think so.

Curt Schilling will be a case study for baseball writers still clinging to prehistoric Hall of Fame standards for modern pitchers. He will be the first great pitcher of the steroid era, unsuspected of steroid use, to receive HoF eligibility with career numbers indicative of a new generation of pitchers. It is up to the voters to be cognizant of this fact.

Schilling deserves his day in Cooperstown as part of the 2013 class. The only question that remains: Will Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens be there to share it with him?

http://thebasebox.blogspot.com/

Top 5 Pound for Pound Fighters (3/5/09)

I'm going to start posting my rankings once every couple of months or so. Due to their retirements, Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Joe Calzaghe were left off. I also left off Israel Vasquez and Rafael Marquez because of extensive inactivity.


5. Bernard Hopkins
B-Hop added another chapter to his Hall of Fame legacy last October with his dominant beatdown of Kelly Pavlik. Some P4P rankings have since placed Hopkins as high as #2. Despite the clinic Hopkins put on that night, he didn't impress me enough against Joe Calzaghe to deserve any higher placement.

What's next?
The only match that Hopkins appeared passionate about was a rematch with Calzaghe. After Calzaghe retired, Hopkins was left with little else to choose from in the light heavyweight division. It looks like Hopkins will either retire or move up in weight to fight cruiserweight champion, Tomasz Adamek.


4. Paul Williams- On sheer talent alone, Williams might be higher than #4. However, since just about every big name has chosen to duck the "Most Feared Man in Boxing", Williams is lacking the big victories that warrant a higher spot. Nobody wants to face a talented 6'2'' southpaw who can comfortably bounce between three weight classes (welterweight, junior middleweight, and middleweight). Antonio Margarito decided that he'd rather get annihilated by Shane Mosley for less money than fight Williams.

What's next?
Williams has finally gotten somebody of note to step into the ring with him, as he'll be taking on Winky Wright, April 11th on HBO. A win is necessary for Williams if he hopes to force big names into the ring with him. If he does win, I'd like to see a showdown with Mosley at 147 or 154.


3. Shane Mosley- Mosley's exceptional performance over Antonio Margarito reminded boxing fans that this guy can still really fight. Mosley was throwing bombs all night, hitting flush shots left and right, and eventually knocking out a man who many thought to be indestructible. In some ways, his performance might have been TOO GOOD, as it definitely didn't help make Floyd Mayweather that interested about getting into the ring with him.

What's next?
Mosley hoped to lure Floyd Mayweather out of retirement for a big money fight, but Pretty Boy Floyd chose to remain chillin. Mosley will wait to see if he can get the winner of Hatton-Pacquiao, though I think that both fighters are too small for him. If it's not Hatton or Pacquaio, he has numerous options at welterweight to look into. (Berto, Clottey, Cotto, Williams)


2. Juan Manuel Marquez- Following last Saturday's spectacular KO victory (Fight of the Year so far) over Juan Diaz, there's an argument that can be made that Juan Manuel Marquez is the #1 Pound for Pound fighter in the world. Since moving up to lightwight, Marquez has handily defeated two strong opponents, between Diaz and Joel Casamoyer. Compared to his rival Manny Pacquiao--whose ascension in weight classes involved a completely overmatched David Diaz at lightweight, and a washed-up, dehydrated Oscar De La Hoya at welterweight--Marquez's victories may have been more impressive. In their head to head battles, Marquez scored a draw and a narrow loss in two close fights against Pacquiao, fights that many people scored in Marquez's favor. (I scored both fights to Pacman by slight margins.) If you believe Marquez won either fight, you have every right to believe Marquez is the #1 fighter on earth right now.

What's next?
Marquez called out Mayweather following the win over Diaz. Though it'd be an excellent fight, I don't see it happening. If Mayweather does return, it'll be to fight the winner of Hatton-Pacquiao. Marquez should look for a mega-fight against the loser of that match.


1. Manny Pacquiao- Pacquiao all but sent Oscar De La Hoya into retirement with his domination of the Golden Boy last December. The victory confirmed Pacquiao's stature as the best fighter alive. He may have even reached that De La Hoya/Mayweather rock star "Big Money Fights Only" status with that performance--much to the dismay of Juan Manuel Marquez, who would love nothing more than a third crack at Manny.

What's next?
Pacquiao is gearing up for a May 2nd battle with Ricky Hatton. A victory over Hatton, who has never lost at 140 pounds, will be enough to solidify his status atop the P4P list. The lure of a P4P King battle against Money Mayweather awaits him if he is victorious. If Mayweather turns down the fight, Manny will likely fight Mosley or Miguel Cotto. If Manny loses to Hatton, a third fight with Marquez makes the most sense.

Ellsbury's Star Shines Brighter in October

During Game 2 of the 2001 ALDS between Oakland and New York, my brother Billy (10 years old at the time) asked me why the Red Sox never had players like Johnny Damon. Damon underperformed in his lone season with Oakland but remnants of the Kansas City star were evident once October rolled around.

Damon went 4-4 in Game 1 and added two more hits in Game 2—two Oakland victories. He patrolled the outfield gracefully, possessing a game-changing speed atop the order that affected how Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte operated.

Even Damon’s outs were productive. He saw 22 pitches when making his three outs that night. I’m not sure if Nomar Garciaparra ever saw that many pitches in a week, let alone three at-bats.

I didn’t have an answer for Billy.

The Red Sox, at the time, were finally ending the Carl Everett era while toying with the idea of a young, slim Trot Nixon patrolling center field. The farm system was barren and speed was not common amongst Red Sox. (Everett led the Sox with 9 SB in 2001.) Ironically, Dan Duquette heeded Billy’s advice and signed Damon that off-season. For once, the Red Sox had the prototypical leadoff hitter that they lacked my entire life.

Well, if Billy had a 10-year old younger brother watching last night’s ALDS game with him—which I’m glad he doesn’t, because that would be weird—“Why don’t the Red Sox ever have players like Johnny Damon?” is one question that would most certainly never been asked.

Why?

Because Jacoby Ellsbury is that player.  His presence changes the complexions of postseason games like no other Red Sox player on the roster.



Ask the Colorado Rockies what it was like pitching to Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz after Ellsbury reached base in 50% of his World Series plate appearances. Ask Mike Napoli (or Matt Napoli, as Buck Martinez calls him) how defenseless he feels with Ellsbury at first and Pedroia at the plate. Ask Mike Scioscia how it felt watching the 8th inning play out after Ellsbury robbed Mark Teixeira’s on a sinking line drive for the first out, preventing a potentially huge inning.

Ellsbury possesses a rare, multifaceted talent that is magnified during low-scoring October baseball. He’s reminiscent of a young Damon spraying line drives to all fields but with stronger plate discipline, more speed, Gold-Glove defense, and a Floyd Mayweather demeanor that flourishes as the lights get brighter.

Last night provided more of what Red Sox fans have grown to expect. Ellsbury went 3 for 5, stealing two bases and scoring a run, bumping his career playoff average up to a ridiculous .400 with a 1.022 OPS. (One of his outs was a triple that was incorrectly ruled a 3-base error) His RBI single in the 9th inning sealed Anaheim’s fate.

Ellsbury has established himself as the catalyst that stirs Boston’s “Dirty Water”. Some players go entire careers without accomplishing a fraction of what Ellsbury has in the seven playoff games he’s started in. Like Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two similarly hard-nosed homegrown players who have come to personify the Epstein Regime, the bigger the moment, the brighter Ellsbury’s star shines.

And best of all? 10-year old New Yorkers everywhere went to bed last night asking their older brothers why the New York Yankees don’t have players like Jacoby Ellsbury.

Quick Predictions

Red Sox over Angels in 3
Rays over White Sox in 4

Dodgers over Cubs in 4
Phillies over Brewers in 4

Red Sox over Rays in 7
Dodgers over Phillies in 6

Red Sox over Dodgers in 4

MVP: Kevin Youkilis

Most Valuable Carlos?

Tom Glavine walked off the Shea Stadium mound for the final time last season losing more than just the New York Mets’ opportunity to make the 2007 postseason. Glavine’s abysmal performance (seven runs in one-third of an inning) effectively eliminated his third baseman David Wright from consideration for the NL MVP award as well. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins took home the award following his Philadelphia Phillies’ historic comeback. The Phils stormed back from seven games down with seventeen left to play, to become the NL East Champions on the final day of the season.

Rollins’ candidacy for MVP was substantiated on the notion that his value was so strong that he willed the Phillies past the Mets into the postseason whereas Wright was simply unable to do the same. Luckily for Rollins, his team’s soft-tossing left-handed starter, Jamie Moyer, outperformed Glavine on the final day of the season, throwing five and one-third innings while allowing just a single unearned run in a victory over Washington. Had Moyer and Glavine swapped pitching lines on September 30th, Wright would likely be the reigning NL MVP.

Wright was a greater player than Rollins in every meaningful aspect. He was penalized for no other reason than having teammates inferior to those of Rollins. A quick analysis of both players’ individual statistics proves how flawed this logic is:

-Wright posted a .325/.416/.546 line with 30 home runs and 107 runs batted in, while Rollins hit at a .296/.344/.531 clip with 30 home runs and 94 runs batted in. A 90 point difference in OPS is the difference between Derek Jeter and Marco Scuturo. Despite having 112 more at bats, Rollins had just 16 more hits. Wright would have simply had to produce Johan Santana-like offensive numbers over his next 112 at-bats to match Rollins’s hit total.

-In a sport without a clock, an out is the most valuable possession a team has. In 2007, Jimmy Rollins made more outs than any other player in baseball. Rollins’s .344 OBP was just 19 points higher than Wright’s batting average.

-Measuring by VORP, had both teams replaced their stars with league-average fill-ins at the same positions, the Mets would have suffered worse. Wright was second in the NL with an 81.1 VORP, while Rollins ranked 9th (66.1), one place below teammate Chase Utley. That’s right; the 2007 NL MVP was not even the most valuable player on his own team. If Rollins’s season held more value than Wright’s, it is certainly not evident in his production.

David Wright is the last person who should have been held accountable for the Mets collapse. Wright posted September slashes of .352/.432/.602, with 6 home runs and 20 RBI. Wright closed his monster September on a 17-game hit streak. He was held hitless just four times in the entire month. Wright carried the Mets into contention through the final game of the season; a game that ended as quickly as it started, through no fault of his own. He was robbed of the 2007 MVP Award.

Which brings us to 2008…

Somewhere along the line, the media has irresponsibly hopped aboard the “Carlos Delgado for MVP” bandwagon, feeding into the irrational frenzy that Mets fans are currently engaged in. If the Mets hold off the Phillies down the stretch, the clamoring for Delgado will only grow stronger.

Yes, this is the same Delgado who was among the worst players in baseball on July 4th. The fact that he salvaged his season enough to avoid being platooned, and even released, is an accomplishment in itself but it does not make him worthy of being the NL MVP.

Games in April mean as much in the standings as games in September. Delgado’s performance of late is only making up for the hole that he put the Mets in earlier in the year. Had Delgado been better than Jose Vidro during the first three months, the Mets would have had a better record than 42-44 on July 4th. As a result, they would have a greater cushion than the current half-game lead they hold over Philadelphia. Delgado’s July and September are only repaying his debts from April through June. If the requirements of becoming NL MVP are two great months, then Manny Ramirez is far more deserving of a candidate than Delgado.

Mets fans: Ask yourselves about your own team before even acknowledging the actual National League MVP. If you lost one of the following five players for the remainder of the season, who would be the most difficult to replace: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, or Carlos Delgado? You’d have to be insane to consider Delgado, even intuitively. By every value based measure: VORP, Runs Created, Win Shares, etc., Carlos Delgado ranks last. As stated by Max Kellerman of 1050 ESPN Radio, Delgado is not even the MVC—Most Valuable Carlos, as his production is not nearly as meaningful as that of a center fielder who provides value on both sides of the field.

So who deserves the NL MVP? Simple. The best player in the National League: Albert Pujols—and it’s not even close. Pujols is having a monster season that is going unrecognized because of the regularity in which he puts up his numbers. He is so dominant that it just isn’t fun to vote for him. He has outperformed his peers in every aspect and deserves to be rewarded for it. It is not Pujols’s fault that his teammates are not as good as Santana, Reyes, and Wright. If anything, that shows how valuable he really is. Trade Pujols for Delgado and which team becomes better? He should not miss out on the MVP because the other 24 St. Louis Cardinals are not as good as the New York Mets.

The MVP is an individual award. It is not a team award. The playoffs are the team award. Arguing for Delgado is arguing the semantics of the word “valuable”. And turning the MVP award into a semantics argument takes away from the true intention of the trophy. Only the voters have a chance to right this wrong. To do so, they must name the most deserving player in the National League, Albert Pujols, the 2008 NL MVP.


My Ballot (AVG/OBP/SLG, HR-RBI):
10. Lance Berkman, HOU: .322/.426/.586, 28-100
9. Manny Ramirez, LAD: .401/.481/.745, 14-44
8. Carlos Beltran, NYM: .280/.371/.490, 24-103
7. Jose Reyes. NYM: .298/.359/.474, 14-59
6. Chase Utley, PHI: .289/.377/.533, 31-95
5. Geovanny Soto, CHC, .285/.363/.502, 22-83
4. Ryan Braun, MIL, .290/.336/.562, 35-97
3. Johan Santana, NYM: 210 IP, 13-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 179 K
2. David Wright, NYM: .298/.386/.534, 31-114
1. Albert Pujols, STL: .357/.461/.645, 33-101

Captain Crutch?

NOTE: I had been contemplating writing about Jason Varitek’s place with the Red Sox for some time now, but his controversial All-Star selection sped up the process for me...


Multiyear contracts for 30+ year old catchers have not been kind to teams throughout history. The list of productive catchers, 35 & older, begins and ends with Carlton Fisk--though Jorge Posada is making a valiant effort to join him. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox signed their then-32 year-old catcher, Jason Varitek, to a 4-year $40 million contract two months after winning their first World Series in 86 years. Varitek was named the captain of the team, only the third Red Sox player to receive the honor since 1923.

The decision to sign Varitek was not as automatic as one might think. To that point, the Epstein regime had been especially opposed to signing aging stars to multiyear contracts regardless of their organizational ties—-especially catchers who are known to have shorter shelf-lives than any other position. The idea being that teams should be paying players for future performance rather than past performance. It's the mindset that sent Cliff Floyd, Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon, and Derek Lowe looking for work elsewhere at various points throughout Epstein's tenure. But with minimal catching options elsewhere, (rumors of a trade for Brian Schneider surfaced for a while), the Sox were willing to give in to Varitek and agent Scott Boras’s demands.

"It's not every day you're lucky enough to sign a player who embodies everything you want your franchise to be," general manager Theo Epstein said. "When you have that player, you don't let him get away."

Varitek responded with an excellent 2005 season, posting a .281/.366/.489 line in 133 games. The contract was justified for one season, at least. However, as Mets and Yankees fans have witnessed with Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon, the decline period usually doesn’t surface in year one. It is the later years of the deals where they begin to look bad.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Varitek’s decline began even sooner than they had hoped. His injury-plagued 2006 season resembled that of a 34 year old catcher, batting .238/.325/.400. To his credit, the Red Sox’ collapse from contention,just as it did in 2001, coincided with Varitek’s knee injury in August. Varitek bounced back slightly in 2007, recording a respectable .255/.367/.421 season, good for a 103 OPS+. The Red Sox won the World Series for the second time, sweeping the Colorado Rockies. Varitek’s performance behind the plate overshadowed anything he did at the plate.

Now, at age 36 and in the final year of his deal, Varitek is having the worst statistical season of his career. Mired in a 14 for 99 (.141) slump, Varitek is posting splits of .220/.300/.360—numbers that fans once expected from Doug Mirabelli. Oddly enough, he was selected by his peers to represent the American League in the All-Star game for the third time—this in spite of his -2.3 value over replacement player (VORP).

VORP measures the number of runs a player contributes beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if he were given the same percentage of a team’s plate appearances. In other words, Varitek’s VORP is the number of runs that he improves the Red Sox offense by, by having him in the lineup instead of an easily attainable replacement-level catcher. In other words part 2, by carrying a negative VORP, you can take just about any available catcher, plug him into Varitek’s place in the Red Sox lineup, and they instantly become a better offensive team.

So where is Varitek’s true value? In some cases, it’s in aspects of the game that can’t be quantified. In other cases, you can quantify it, but to an uncertain degree. This is a very tricky game for front-offices to play: how much credence do you put into intangibles?

For example, in 2001 and 2006, the team ERA and opposing OPS rose considerably when Varitek got injured and catchers like Scott Hatteberg, Doug Mirabelli, and Javy Lopez were calling the shots. Is this a representation of game-calling ability or is it luck? As a Red Sox fan, my gut tells me that it is indicative of Varitek’s talents, but objectively it could be coincidental. There's really no way of knowing.

As an outsider, it’s hard to judge how great of a game-caller Varitek is but the reviews from his peers say a lot. (EDIT: Yes, these are the same peers who were responsible for some outlandish All-Star selections--Varitek included--so maybe their opinions should be taken lightly) Varitek has caught great pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Josh Beckett, who have each raved about Varitek’s preparation and mental fortitude in holding down the pitching staff. Veterans like Hideo Nomo, Bret Saberhagen, Pat Rapp, and David Cone, who bounced around at the end of their careers, each experienced solid post-prime seasons with Varitek at the helm. Young starters for Boston have also found success while working with Varitek. Recently, compare the early results of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson in a hitter’s ballpark to those of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, two prospects who were generally regarded more highly than Boston's. Would the results be different if the catchers were swapped? I think it's fair to believe that.

One intangible that I don’t buy into, is that his presence has an effect on team chemistry. Unlike basketball and football, where teamwork is so prevelant that chemistry issues constantly surface, baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. You don’t win baseball games because you have good chemistry. You appear to have good chemistry because you are winning games. The baseball media always perpetuates erroneous beliefs regarding causation and correlation. It’s similar to the fallacy you always hear about Jose Reyes and the New York Mets. “The Mets are a winning team when Jose Reyes is having fun and smiling.” No, that’s not true at all. Jose Reyes is having fun and smiling because the Mets are winning—not the other way around.

So are Varitek’s intangibles overrated? Could another catcher step in and handle the staff as well as he has? Possibly, but without being able to know for sure, and without there being a plethora of alternatives, is replacing Varitek at the end of the season a risk worth taking? I don’t think that it is. Russell Martins and Joe Mauers don’t grow on trees, so there aren't many significant improvements out there. I’d feel much more comfortable with Varitek and his relationship with the staff behind the plate than I would feel if the Sox were to hand the reins over to some unknown commodity in search of 40 points of OPS.

However, the Red Sox can not allow Varitek and his captaincy to become an albatross for the team offensively. If the Red Sox are to resign him—and as long as there aren’t any maniacal offers to match, I think they should (2 years is about where I’d max out...the $ value means little to me since the Red Sox have the money)—they can no longer treat him as an above average offensive player. They must recognize that he is now your ordinary defensive-oriented catcher with some occasional pop.

He should bat 8th or 9th at all times and he should rarely get a 4th at-bat in a game that the Red Sox are trailing. His bat speed is far too slow to catch up with late-inning fireballers. Pinch-hit for him, pinch-run for him, and give him extra days off during the season, along with the mandatory Wakefield rest. If it’s agreed that Varitek’s importance behind the plate is where his true value comes from, then he should not be insulted if and when Francona sends up a better hitter (Sean Casey, Brandon Moss, Alex Cora) in a big spot. Better yet, as the captain, he should be fully supportive, seeing as each of the aforementioned moves would be in the team’s best interest.

Is Pretty Boy Floyd Gone For Good?

Well, as you probably know, the best pound for pound fighter in the world today, Floyd Mayweather has officially announced his retirement from boxing. Mayweather's announcement came as a bit of a surprise given that he is currently in the prime of his career and the height of his drawing power. The announcement officially squashes any chance of the September 20th De La Hoya-Mayweather rematch that many would have watched but few would have cared about.

So is he done? Boxers always seem to have trouble staying away from the ring, so the odds are probably in favor of Mayweather lacing up the gloves once again--especially for a guy with the propensity to spend money the way he does. It would be a shame if he doesn't, given the entertainment that Money Mayweather brings to the sport. A fighter with Mayweather's blend of skills and instincts comes along once every few generations. He's also one of the few transcendent personalites boxing has left and losing him will be a devestating blow to the interest of the common fan. And from a selfish standpoint, no Mayweather means no Floyd Mayweather-Miguel Cotto megafight. (Or even a lesser fight against some other established welterweight like Antonio Margarito, Shane Moseley, or Paul Williams)

On the Kellerman and Kenny radio show today (10-1, 1050ESPN, best sports talk radio show in NYC), Max Kellerman concocted a pretty interesting theory regarding Mayweather's retirement:

According to Kellerman, most of Mayweather's persona depends on his brand being a massive draw, almost like how a Mercedes Benz is special because it is a Mercedes Benz. As long as people continue to think of Mayweather as a huge draw, the more he ends up being a huge draw. His first fight with De la Hoya set records; it reached 2.4 million households and generated around $120 million. Floyd earned $25 million from it. However, it wasn't a particularly exciting fight. Fans weren't really clamoring for a rematch. It would have been practically impossible for Mayweather-De La Hoya II to match what the first fight did, numbers-wise.

Now if the rematch happened, and it paled in comparison to the profitably of the first fight, or even worse if he were to somehow lose, Mayweather's brand takes a HUGE hit. It makes him look less important to the public, or less interesting. As a result, Mayweather calls off the fight via this psuedo-retirement and takes 12-18 months off in hopes of building anticipation for a bigger fight that fans are actually interested in.

In the meantime, Miguel Cotto will face Antonio Margarito on July 26th. Assuming Cotto is victorious, he enhances his draw power to make himself a worthy contender for De la Hoya. If he beats De la Hoya, he officially becomes a mega-star and the demand for a fight vs. Mayweather soars through the roof. At that point, Mayweather will demand a huuuuuuuuuge purse and come back to fight Cotto in what will be one of the biggest fights in boxing history. And if Cotto were to lose at any point along the way, then Mayweather can say that Cotto was never deserving of a fight anyway, a convenient excuse given the public perception that Mayweather is ducking Cotto.


Does it make sense? I really think so. Or at the very least, it made sense when Kellerman said it, so if I butchered it, it's my fault.

Schilling and Dice-K have some company...

Looks like David Ortiz is going to miss at least a month with tendon sheath damage in his left wrist. My first reaction was that this sounds strikingly similar to Nomar Garciaparra's 2001 injury, which effectively ended his career as an elite hitter.


My gut feeling is that after unsuccessfully trying to let it heal through rehabilitation, Ortiz has the surgery and misses the rest of the season (and postseason). Wrist injuries are the worst, as there's really no telling if a player will ever be the same afterwards. Nomar never returned to form; Derrek Lee is only starting to hit for power again, two years after his wrist injury.


Which then begs the biggest question for the rest of the 2008 season, a season in which the Red Sox are still a championship contender in spite of injuries to countless superstars--Are there any lefthanded, power bats that the Red Sox could acquire cheaply who could slide into the DH/3 hole and produce elite numbers? You know something? I actually think there might be somebody....

So Billy Beane and I made the same mistake...

...and didn't trade Rich Harden after getting two great starts out of him to start the season. Harden has been placed on the DL, in one of baseball's annual traditions. As for my fantasy team, I'll replace Harden with Randy Johnson, who is returning from his stint on the DL, Monday against San Francisco. Beane, unfortunately, is in a little more trouble.

Season Preview, Part VI

8) Seattle Mariners, 88–74, (1st place in AL West)

The winner of the American League’s weakest division will be the Seattle Mariners. I will admit that I don’t particularly like Seattle as presently constructed—I just feel like the Angels are very susceptible to a down season in 2008.

Last year, the Mariners outperformed their Pythagorean Record by a large enough margin that the acquisition of Eric Bedard will likely just allow them to sustain their 2007 improvement. The leap to division champions comes on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez. King Felix has been around for so long that it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 21 years old. He’s two years younger than Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum and the same age as Phil Hughes, yet with 400+ innings of MLB experience under his belt. 2008 will be King Felix’s breakout season. Last year he posted a 3.92 ERA, despite allowing an extremely unlucky .338 batting average on balls in play. (.300 is average for a pitcher) Assuming a natural regression to the mean in BABIP, along with progression as a pitcher growing into his stuff, 2008 will result in a monster season for Hernandez, my pick for AL Cy Young

Seattle’s lineup is extremely weak. Ichiro is the only premier bat, but as a slap singles hitter, he isn’t likely to kill you the way that other superstars can. Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez aren’t terrible, but they’d look much better surrounded by an all-star masher. Instead, they are surrounded by Jose Vidro and his 6 home runs as the everyday designated hitter. Man, if only they were able to acquire a designated hitter who could hit 25 home runs, and bat at a .280/.450/.550 clip. I know hitters like that don’t grow on trees, especially ones who enjoy playing on the west coast. And could you imagine the number of prospects you’d have to give up to get a guy like that? Those are practically Albert Pujols-like numbers. Wait, you mean there is somebody available like that? Barry Bonds is still a free agent? And the Seattle Mariners are content with sticking with Jose Vidro at DH? Seriously?

Introducing your 4 divisional series losers….


7) Los Angeles Dodgers, 88–74, (2nd place in NL West, NL Wild Card)

There’s something humorous to me about Joe Torre replacing Grady Little as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ skipper. If Torre didn’t embarrass Little enough in 2003, he certainly finished the job this offseason. The Dodgers began negotiating with Torre while Little still held the position. Little, realizing for the first time in his career that it was time to pull the plug, felt threatened by Torre and chose to resign. If only John Henry and Larry Lucchino had thought to recruit Torre during the 8th inning of the ALCS, baseball history would have been written a lot differently…

Bitterness aside, the Dodgers are better suited with Torre at the helm—considering that they are a playoff contender and all. The one person who’d disagree is Scott Proctor, a reliever reunited with the manager that pitched him over 200 innings in roughly two seasons in New York. Torre’s arrival in Los Angeles is Proctor’s right arm’s worst nightmare. Torre is certainly a change of pace from Little, who might not be aware that relief pitchers actually exist.

Torre might not have to summon Proctor as often as he did in New York, however, because the Dodgers boast the NL’s strongest starting rotation. Brad Penny has established himself as one of the NL’s premier pitchers. Looks like Paul DePodesta knew what he was doing after all. Another widely criticized DePodesta acquisition, Derek Lowe, has revived his career in LA, throwing three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Joining Lowe and Penny is veteran Japanese pitcher, Hiroki Kuroka, a 33 year old right hander who will provide the Dodgers with a season better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first year with Boston. If Chad Billingsley makes “The Jump” that management expects, the Dodgers will throw out a front four as good as anyone in the National League. A staff as good as LA’s will be enough for Joe Torre’s consecutive playoff streak, unlike his former team, to continue in 2008.

6) Milwaukee Brewers, 89–73, (1st place in NL Central)

Lost in the media’s love affair with the Chicago Cubs is the best team in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2007, the Brewers took great strides towards becoming a National League contender, posting an 83-79 record, an eight game improvement on their 2006 total. As a young and improving team, it’s reasonable to expect similar progression in 2008 for the Brew Crew.

First and foremost, the Brewers need a healthy season out of Ben Sheets. Sheets is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers, the all-time leader in BB/9 for pitchers with a K/9 over 7 and he is 4th all-time in K/BB ratio. However, health is always an issue for Sheets. He hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2004 making it tough for Milwaukee to rely on his production. Luckily, Milwaukee finally has some help in the rotation. Yovani Gallardo pitched brilliantly after being called up last season. Gallardo is one of the NL’s brightest young pitchers. Joining them this season is rookie LHP Manny Parra. Parra is a 2001 draft pick whose road to Milwaukee was derailed by injuries. He reestablished himself as a top prospect with a brilliant 2007 season at AA and AAA. After a strong spring training, the Brewers believe Parra is ready to be an integral part of their staff. Jeff Suppan can be expected to provide 200+ league average innings.

Is there a better collection of homegrown talent in baseball than Milwaukee’s? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the only 100% homegrown infield that I can think of. Corey Hart and 2007 Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, manage the corners, bringing the total to six out of the eight everyday players coming from within. With all of this young talent blossoming at the major league level, as you can imagine, there isn’t much left from a positional standpoint. 2007 1st round pick OF Matt LaPorta, a player the Red Sox drafted in 2006 but couldn’t reach terms with, is the last premier positional prospect remaining. He is the classic all-bat, no-glove player but, man, he can rake. In just 115 at-bats after being drafted, LaPorta smashed 12 home runs. At 22 years old, LaPorta will not need much more seasoning at the minor league level. If the Brewers feel Corey Hart can play center field, LaPorta will end up in one of the corners (probably by 2009). Either that, or Bud Selig will find a way to switch the Brewers into the American League so that LaPorta and Fielder can share 1B/DH duties.