ESPN's Hot Stove Heaters

Pujols or A-Rod? Buchholz or Chamberlain? Santana or Sabathia? On January 10th, ESPN.com introduced its Hot Stove Heaters chat wraps. The premise of the series is simple. Take two similar players and argue over who you'd rather have. There's not much that I enjoy more than a "who would you rather have?" argument, so I've thoroughly enjoyed this series. The 5th installment was posted yesterday, with Jayson Stark asking the following question:

You have to take one shortstop to start your team. And it has to be a guy who will play this entire season at an age younger than 25. (New Yorkers please take note: That ground rule happens to eliminate Jose Reyes from this argument.) So which phenom would you take, Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki?

I'll preface by saying the following: I love Hanley Ramirez. He's one of the most uniquely talented offensive players of all time. There's a chance that when people look back on the 2010's, Ramirez is remembered as the best all-around offensive player of the decade. But for all of Ramirez's offensive prowess, there's just no telling if he can continue playing shortstop. For the second straight year, Ramirez has turned in a horrific defensive season. In 2007, Ramirez posted the lowest fielding percentage (.963) and zone rating (.786) of any NL shortstop, numbers that coincidentally match his 2006 numbers exactly. As the quarterback of the infield, this does not go unnoticed. Rumors of moving Ramirez to center field have quieted since Florida acquired Cameron Maybin, but if Ramirez doesn't show any improvement in 2008, the discussions will have to be revisited.

Tulowitzki is a remarkable talent in his own right. What Ramirez is accomplishing at the plate, Tulowitzki is matching on the field. In 2007, Tulowitzki put together one of the finest defensive seasons of all time. (561 assists, 5.31 range factor, 8.66 zone rating) The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up was robbed of a Gold Glove award, as the baseball writers once again proved their incompetence by selecting a well-inferior Jimmy Rollins. Tulo is no slouch as the plate either. From May 1st on, Tulowitzki hit .298 with 22 HR and 89 RBI. Not to mention, he helped lead the improbable Rockies run to the World Series. Not bad for a 22 year old!

The only concern I have about Tulo is the huge disparity in his home/road splits. (HOME: .326/.392.568, ROAD: .256/.327/.393.) It is always noteworthy when a player slugs 170 points higher at home, especially when home is Coors Field. While it's not the offensive asylum it was in past seasons, Coors still ranks third in run scoring according to ESPN.com's park factors. In Tulo's defense, it's a very small sample but something to keep an eye on in 2008 and beyond.

If I had to choose, although fantasy baseball fanatics would argue otherwise, I'd take Tulowitzki. Judging by each player's WARP (wins above replacement player) in 2007, you really can't go wrong with either player. (Ramirez posted an 8.9, Tulo posted an 8.5) What Ramirez lacks in defense, he makes up for on offense. What Tulo lacks in offense, he makes up for in defense. However, one of the keys to the argument is which SHORTSTOP would you rather have. And if there's still uncertainty that Ramirez can play shortstop 2-5 years from now, that plays a large factor in the discussion. Tulo, on the other hand, has developed a defensive reputation that mirrors the Visquel's and Ozzie's of the world, with statistics that actually back it up (561 assists, over 100 more than the next SS). It's definitely too early to tell who the better player is, but this is the type of debate that makes it so great to be a baseball fan.

Set your alarm clocks....

Major League Baseball has announced that Opening Day in Japan against Oakland will start at 6:07am EST. Something tells me I'll be late to work that day.

For those keeping score at home...

According to ESPN.com, the Yankees have officially pulled Phil Hughes from their offer for Johan Santana. I'm not sure of the exact number, but if I ventured to guess, I'd say this is somewhere between the 203rd and 207th update in regards to the trade's status. Guess what? Nobody cares anymore. I understand what the Steinbrothers are trying do, but it's getting old. If Hank's winter meeting deadline proved anything, it's that Bill Smith is not going to fall victim to New York's bullying. His entire tenure as Minnesota GM will be judged on this one trade. Rushing a move, just to make a deal will serve him no good.

That being said, this 'news' serves some good as it gives me an excuse to comment on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. The three most important elements to a Santana deal are: Urgent need for a bonafide ace, Willingness to deal major-league ready prospects, and the ability to sign Santana to a long-term extension.

Right now, there are three teams being discussed as possible destinations. Boston, New York A, and New York B. And assuming that the Twins are not silly enough to hold on to him, there's really only 1 destination that makes total sense for both teams.

The Pretender

The Mets - No matter what Omar Minaya and the New York Post would like you to believe, the Mets are not a player in the Johan Santana derby. They might make a few headlines, and they might even force the Yankees or the Red Sox to throw in an Austin Jackson or a Ryan Kalish. However, when it comes down to it, the Mets just won't have what it takes to get a deal done. There is absolutely no way the Twins accept a package without a five-star prospect coming their way, or at the very least a handful of very good ones. The Mets seem to be of the belief that their package of mediocre quantity is better than quality. Forget the Red Sox and Yankees. The Mets can't even put together a better deal than the Dodgers or Angels, two teams who have been rather quiet on the Santana front.

I'm sure Carlos Gomez will be a decent baseball player one day, maybe even a notch or two better than Alex Escobar. And if Carlos Silva can get 40 million dollars to throw league average innings, then Philip Humber might not be such a terrible alternative. But these are not the players that you can sell a fanbase on after trading the best pitcher in baseball. The truth is, the Mets' farm system is just not good enough to bring in a player of Santana's stature. Their best talent is nowhere near major league ready. As high as people are on Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra, you're still talking about 19 year old kids. Most of their other prospects, mainly Mike Pelfrey and Humber, lost a lot of their luster following underwhelming performances at the major league level. The same thing happened to Lastings Milledge, and we all saw the return that Milledge brought in. I commend the Mets for putting in the effort, but if you only have $12,000 in your pocket, no Mercedes dealership is going to let you buy a 2008 C-Class just because you really need a Benz.

What must happen for the Mets to land Johan Santana:
The Red Sox and Yankees admit that they were bluffing all along, and that neither team ever really wanted Santana, and Minaya works out a deal with Smith while both Los Angeles GMs are unknowingly vacationing together somewhere.

II. The Contender

The Boston Red Sox - If the Red Sox wanted Santana, the press conference would have taken place already. It's that simple. No other team in baseball has the combination of excessive high-end major league ready, minor league talent that Minnesota needs along with the resources to ink Santana to a lucrative extension. What the Red Sox are missing is urgency. If this was January 11th, 2004, Santana would be in a Boston uniform. But after winning two World Series in four seasons, the Red Sox no longer need to rush into this type of move. They already have a bonafide ace. Josh Beckett came into his own in 2007 and is arguably the best right handed pitcher in baseball today. For once the Red Sox have built a team around strong pitching. Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester are each under 30 years old, and if anyone out of the Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Daniel Bard group pan out, the Red Sox will continue to have one of the best rotations in the league. The pieces are in place for the Red Sox to be a very good team for a very long time. Tinkering with the organizational philosophy that Epstein has put into place will only hurt the Red Sox in the long run.

Honestly, I'd feel much more comfortable with Epstein figuring out a way to get Jed Lowrie's bat into the lineup (Who wants Julio? Any takers?) than exploring a deal that would send 5 prospects Minnesota's way, for a pitcher who you'll be paying a premium for the decline phase of his career. Now if Minnesota has any interest in a Bowden, Bard, Coco Crisp and Jason Place package....

What must happen for the Red Sox to land Santana:
A) Theo Epstein wakes up one day and decides that he's not just driving up New York's price and that he really does want Johan Santana
or
B) The Twins get fed up with the Steinbrothers' antics and accept an offer like the one I just made up just to spite New York. (0.00001%)

I'm just not sold on the Red Sox trading away 6 or 7 years of Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Jed Lowrie for one season of Santana + the right to buy 5-7 more seasons of a 30+ year old pitcher at a record setting contract with peripheral stats trending in the wrong direction.

III. The Destination

The New York Yankees - The Yankees are the one team whose desire for an ace matches their ability to deliver the talent that Minnesota needs in return. While the Yankees have a little less to offer than Boston, they do have a substantial urgency to get a trade done. Watching Josh Beckett dominate this postseason for their arch nemesis, while the Yankees extended their championship drought, proved just how important a shut down ace of that caliber is. As long as Chien Ming Wang is headlining the Yankees' rotation, the Yankees will be entering a 5 or 7 game series at a disadvantage. Joba Chamberlain will eventually become that guy, but for a team that dealt out $400 million dollars worth of contract extensions this offseason, the Yankees can not afford to wait it out.

Adding Santana to a rotation slides both Wang and Chamberlain down a slot and turns their rotation from an uncertainty to a strength, one that could compete with Boston's. Giving up Hughes is not easy, but realistically speaking, he's the only tough piece to let go of. Melky Cabrera is a glorified 4th outfielder whose flashy, strong arm in center field has caused his weak bat to be vastly overrated by the New York fans. Ian Kennedy and his command, control, makeup, and whatever other words that scouts toss around for pitchers without front-end stuff seems better suited for the NL Central than the brutally grinding lineups of the AL East.

The Red Sox are the defending World Champions. The ball is in New York's court. If neither team makes the trade, the Red Sox still enter 2007 as the favorites. If New York makes the Santana deal, they step back into the championship contender conversation. It would certainly hurt the Yankees much more if Boston gets Santana than it would hurt Boston if the Yankees were make the deal. I think that by April, that fear will cause the Steinbrothers to pull the trigger.

As for the Mets? Something tells me Joe Blanton is available.

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Welcome to the MLB Warning Track Power blog. This place will serve as my little collection of each and every thought I have regarding all things baseball. I hope you enjoy!