Thursday, April 10, 2008
So Billy Beane and I made the same mistake...
...and didn't trade Rich Harden after getting two great starts out of him to start the season. Harden has been placed on the DL, in one of baseball's annual traditions. As for my fantasy team, I'll replace Harden with Randy Johnson, who is returning from his stint on the DL, Monday against San Francisco. Beane, unfortunately, is in a little more trouble.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Season Preview, Part VI
8) Seattle Mariners, 88–74, (1st place in AL West)
The winner of the American League’s weakest division will be the Seattle Mariners. I will admit that I don’t particularly like Seattle as presently constructed—I just feel like the Angels are very susceptible to a down season in 2008.
Last year, the Mariners outperformed their Pythagorean Record by a large enough margin that the acquisition of Eric Bedard will likely just allow them to sustain their 2007 improvement. The leap to division champions comes on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez. King Felix has been around for so long that it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 21 years old. He’s two years younger than Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum and the same age as Phil Hughes, yet with 400+ innings of MLB experience under his belt. 2008 will be King Felix’s breakout season. Last year he posted a 3.92 ERA, despite allowing an extremely unlucky .338 batting average on balls in play. (.300 is average for a pitcher) Assuming a natural regression to the mean in BABIP, along with progression as a pitcher growing into his stuff, 2008 will result in a monster season for Hernandez, my pick for AL Cy Young
Seattle’s lineup is extremely weak. Ichiro is the only premier bat, but as a slap singles hitter, he isn’t likely to kill you the way that other superstars can. Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez aren’t terrible, but they’d look much better surrounded by an all-star masher. Instead, they are surrounded by Jose Vidro and his 6 home runs as the everyday designated hitter. Man, if only they were able to acquire a designated hitter who could hit 25 home runs, and bat at a .280/.450/.550 clip. I know hitters like that don’t grow on trees, especially ones who enjoy playing on the west coast. And could you imagine the number of prospects you’d have to give up to get a guy like that? Those are practically Albert Pujols-like numbers. Wait, you mean there is somebody available like that? Barry Bonds is still a free agent? And the Seattle Mariners are content with sticking with Jose Vidro at DH? Seriously?
Introducing your 4 divisional series losers….
7) Los Angeles Dodgers, 88–74, (2nd place in NL West, NL Wild Card)
There’s something humorous to me about Joe Torre replacing Grady Little as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ skipper. If Torre didn’t embarrass Little enough in 2003, he certainly finished the job this offseason. The Dodgers began negotiating with Torre while Little still held the position. Little, realizing for the first time in his career that it was time to pull the plug, felt threatened by Torre and chose to resign. If only John Henry and Larry Lucchino had thought to recruit Torre during the 8th inning of the ALCS, baseball history would have been written a lot differently…
Bitterness aside, the Dodgers are better suited with Torre at the helm—considering that they are a playoff contender and all. The one person who’d disagree is Scott Proctor, a reliever reunited with the manager that pitched him over 200 innings in roughly two seasons in New York. Torre’s arrival in Los Angeles is Proctor’s right arm’s worst nightmare. Torre is certainly a change of pace from Little, who might not be aware that relief pitchers actually exist.
Torre might not have to summon Proctor as often as he did in New York, however, because the Dodgers boast the NL’s strongest starting rotation. Brad Penny has established himself as one of the NL’s premier pitchers. Looks like Paul DePodesta knew what he was doing after all. Another widely criticized DePodesta acquisition, Derek Lowe, has revived his career in LA, throwing three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Joining Lowe and Penny is veteran Japanese pitcher, Hiroki Kuroka, a 33 year old right hander who will provide the Dodgers with a season better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first year with Boston. If Chad Billingsley makes “The Jump” that management expects, the Dodgers will throw out a front four as good as anyone in the National League. A staff as good as LA’s will be enough for Joe Torre’s consecutive playoff streak, unlike his former team, to continue in 2008.
6) Milwaukee Brewers, 89–73, (1st place in NL Central)
Lost in the media’s love affair with the Chicago Cubs is the best team in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2007, the Brewers took great strides towards becoming a National League contender, posting an 83-79 record, an eight game improvement on their 2006 total. As a young and improving team, it’s reasonable to expect similar progression in 2008 for the Brew Crew.
First and foremost, the Brewers need a healthy season out of Ben Sheets. Sheets is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers, the all-time leader in BB/9 for pitchers with a K/9 over 7 and he is 4th all-time in K/BB ratio. However, health is always an issue for Sheets. He hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2004 making it tough for Milwaukee to rely on his production. Luckily, Milwaukee finally has some help in the rotation. Yovani Gallardo pitched brilliantly after being called up last season. Gallardo is one of the NL’s brightest young pitchers. Joining them this season is rookie LHP Manny Parra. Parra is a 2001 draft pick whose road to Milwaukee was derailed by injuries. He reestablished himself as a top prospect with a brilliant 2007 season at AA and AAA. After a strong spring training, the Brewers believe Parra is ready to be an integral part of their staff. Jeff Suppan can be expected to provide 200+ league average innings.
Is there a better collection of homegrown talent in baseball than Milwaukee’s? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the only 100% homegrown infield that I can think of. Corey Hart and 2007 Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, manage the corners, bringing the total to six out of the eight everyday players coming from within. With all of this young talent blossoming at the major league level, as you can imagine, there isn’t much left from a positional standpoint. 2007 1st round pick OF Matt LaPorta, a player the Red Sox drafted in 2006 but couldn’t reach terms with, is the last premier positional prospect remaining. He is the classic all-bat, no-glove player but, man, he can rake. In just 115 at-bats after being drafted, LaPorta smashed 12 home runs. At 22 years old, LaPorta will not need much more seasoning at the minor league level. If the Brewers feel Corey Hart can play center field, LaPorta will end up in one of the corners (probably by 2009). Either that, or Bud Selig will find a way to switch the Brewers into the American League so that LaPorta and Fielder can share 1B/DH duties.
The winner of the American League’s weakest division will be the Seattle Mariners. I will admit that I don’t particularly like Seattle as presently constructed—I just feel like the Angels are very susceptible to a down season in 2008.
Last year, the Mariners outperformed their Pythagorean Record by a large enough margin that the acquisition of Eric Bedard will likely just allow them to sustain their 2007 improvement. The leap to division champions comes on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez. King Felix has been around for so long that it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 21 years old. He’s two years younger than Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum and the same age as Phil Hughes, yet with 400+ innings of MLB experience under his belt. 2008 will be King Felix’s breakout season. Last year he posted a 3.92 ERA, despite allowing an extremely unlucky .338 batting average on balls in play. (.300 is average for a pitcher) Assuming a natural regression to the mean in BABIP, along with progression as a pitcher growing into his stuff, 2008 will result in a monster season for Hernandez, my pick for AL Cy Young
Seattle’s lineup is extremely weak. Ichiro is the only premier bat, but as a slap singles hitter, he isn’t likely to kill you the way that other superstars can. Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez aren’t terrible, but they’d look much better surrounded by an all-star masher. Instead, they are surrounded by Jose Vidro and his 6 home runs as the everyday designated hitter. Man, if only they were able to acquire a designated hitter who could hit 25 home runs, and bat at a .280/.450/.550 clip. I know hitters like that don’t grow on trees, especially ones who enjoy playing on the west coast. And could you imagine the number of prospects you’d have to give up to get a guy like that? Those are practically Albert Pujols-like numbers. Wait, you mean there is somebody available like that? Barry Bonds is still a free agent? And the Seattle Mariners are content with sticking with Jose Vidro at DH? Seriously?
Introducing your 4 divisional series losers….
7) Los Angeles Dodgers, 88–74, (2nd place in NL West, NL Wild Card)
There’s something humorous to me about Joe Torre replacing Grady Little as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ skipper. If Torre didn’t embarrass Little enough in 2003, he certainly finished the job this offseason. The Dodgers began negotiating with Torre while Little still held the position. Little, realizing for the first time in his career that it was time to pull the plug, felt threatened by Torre and chose to resign. If only John Henry and Larry Lucchino had thought to recruit Torre during the 8th inning of the ALCS, baseball history would have been written a lot differently…
Bitterness aside, the Dodgers are better suited with Torre at the helm—considering that they are a playoff contender and all. The one person who’d disagree is Scott Proctor, a reliever reunited with the manager that pitched him over 200 innings in roughly two seasons in New York. Torre’s arrival in Los Angeles is Proctor’s right arm’s worst nightmare. Torre is certainly a change of pace from Little, who might not be aware that relief pitchers actually exist.
Torre might not have to summon Proctor as often as he did in New York, however, because the Dodgers boast the NL’s strongest starting rotation. Brad Penny has established himself as one of the NL’s premier pitchers. Looks like Paul DePodesta knew what he was doing after all. Another widely criticized DePodesta acquisition, Derek Lowe, has revived his career in LA, throwing three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Joining Lowe and Penny is veteran Japanese pitcher, Hiroki Kuroka, a 33 year old right hander who will provide the Dodgers with a season better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first year with Boston. If Chad Billingsley makes “The Jump” that management expects, the Dodgers will throw out a front four as good as anyone in the National League. A staff as good as LA’s will be enough for Joe Torre’s consecutive playoff streak, unlike his former team, to continue in 2008.
6) Milwaukee Brewers, 89–73, (1st place in NL Central)
Lost in the media’s love affair with the Chicago Cubs is the best team in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2007, the Brewers took great strides towards becoming a National League contender, posting an 83-79 record, an eight game improvement on their 2006 total. As a young and improving team, it’s reasonable to expect similar progression in 2008 for the Brew Crew.
First and foremost, the Brewers need a healthy season out of Ben Sheets. Sheets is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers, the all-time leader in BB/9 for pitchers with a K/9 over 7 and he is 4th all-time in K/BB ratio. However, health is always an issue for Sheets. He hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2004 making it tough for Milwaukee to rely on his production. Luckily, Milwaukee finally has some help in the rotation. Yovani Gallardo pitched brilliantly after being called up last season. Gallardo is one of the NL’s brightest young pitchers. Joining them this season is rookie LHP Manny Parra. Parra is a 2001 draft pick whose road to Milwaukee was derailed by injuries. He reestablished himself as a top prospect with a brilliant 2007 season at AA and AAA. After a strong spring training, the Brewers believe Parra is ready to be an integral part of their staff. Jeff Suppan can be expected to provide 200+ league average innings.
Is there a better collection of homegrown talent in baseball than Milwaukee’s? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the only 100% homegrown infield that I can think of. Corey Hart and 2007 Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, manage the corners, bringing the total to six out of the eight everyday players coming from within. With all of this young talent blossoming at the major league level, as you can imagine, there isn’t much left from a positional standpoint. 2007 1st round pick OF Matt LaPorta, a player the Red Sox drafted in 2006 but couldn’t reach terms with, is the last premier positional prospect remaining. He is the classic all-bat, no-glove player but, man, he can rake. In just 115 at-bats after being drafted, LaPorta smashed 12 home runs. At 22 years old, LaPorta will not need much more seasoning at the minor league level. If the Brewers feel Corey Hart can play center field, LaPorta will end up in one of the corners (probably by 2009). Either that, or Bud Selig will find a way to switch the Brewers into the American League so that LaPorta and Fielder can share 1B/DH duties.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Season Preview Part V
12) Toronto Blue Jays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)
The longer it takes to finish this preview, the more and more likely I’ll second guess my placement of the Toronto Blue Jays. After three very competitive games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays completed a sleep of the defending World Champions earlier today, proving that they belong in the discussion with the AL’s megapowers. The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games each season for the past ten seasons. Stuck in the highly competitive AL East, the Blue Jays have the most victories of any team who has failed to make the playoffs during the Wild Card era. If Bud Selig chooses to implement my aforementioned “Swap a team to the NL” rule change, the Blue Jays would be a perennial NL powerhouse.
In 2008, the Blue Jays have their best all-around team to date. When healthy, their pitching staff, top to bottom, is the league’s best. Staff ace Roy Halladay is arguably the American League’s best starter. Halladay is a throwback to days when the starting pitcher’s objective was to finish the game that he started. Halladay’s is a refreshing act, one that is nearing extinction given today’s era of 6 IP, 3 ER quality starts. Following Halladay is uber-talented righthander A.J. Burnett, a serious breakout candidate given his contractual status. Burnett has an opt-out clause in his deal and he and his agent have indicated that if he pitches well this season, he will execute his right to opt-out and play the open market. When was the last time Burnett made all of his starts in one season, you ask? His last contract season, the year before signing with Toronto. 2008 has career year written all over it. Rounding out the rotation is a trio of high-upside righthanders in Dustin McGowan (the best of the bunch and future Cy Young candidate), Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, each of whom came on strong towards the end of 2007. Neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees can feel as comfortable with the back end of their rotation as Toronto does.
The Blue Jays will have no problems scoring either. Vernon Wells is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that zapped away all of his power in 2007. Feeling healthy once again, Wells is poised for a strong bounce back campaign. Alex Rios is an emerging superstar, perhaps the best right fielder in the American League. And if “The Big Hurt”, Frank Thomas can continue swinging his imposing bat (RE: Manny Delcarmen), as he has in the early going, the Jays will pose a very deep lineup that wears down weak opposing pitching staffs.
On the other side of the diamond, the addition of Scott Rolen, (who’s currently on the DL with a broken finger), bolsters an already solid defense. When Rolen finally joins second baseman Aaron Hill (who Peter Gammons declared the best all-around 2B in the AL East) and first baseman Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald is at shortstop, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive infield as well.
So, the question remains… Why third place? I wish I had a better answer. The Blue Jays would probably win half of the other divisions in baseball. Trapped in the AL East, they just need too much to go right for them to be left standing come October. This Blue Jays squad can win 90+ games, but more than likely they’ll endure another strong, but playoff-less season, whose reward will be playing spoiler to the Wild Card hopes of the AL East’s second=place team.
11) Tampa Bay Rays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)
The Tampa Bay Rays managed to get rid of the most negativity of any team, this offseason. After officially dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to our city’s capital and the disgruntled Delmon Young to the North Star State. The symbolism was evident. These are not your father’s older brother’s Rays.
BaseballProspectus.com’s famous PECOTA forecasting system is predicting 88 wins. While 88 might be a reach, the Rays enter 2008 with a strong chance to post their first winning season in franchise history. At the very least, the Rays will play a huge role in determining the AL East champions. If the Yankees are the Republicans and the Red Sox are the Democrats, the Rays are an Independent party looking to steal votes. The team they steal the most votes from is likely to lose the divisional race, and possibly the wild card as well.
The future is even brighter than the 2008 outlook. The organization is already looking ahead in that regard. Case in point: their decision to start Evan Longoria in AAA in an effort to delay his arbitration/free angency eligibility.
In 2010, the Rays could post the following lineup:
CF Desmond Jennings
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac
DH Rocco Baldelli (wouldn’t count on it, but let’s not forget how young he is)
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura (or Brignac at 2B with 2008’s 1st overall pick at SS)
With this rotation:
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Matt Garza
Whoever pans out of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jacob McGee
Davis has the best chance of the trio to be a high-quality starter. Niemann would profile well as a reliever, given his size and his injury history. McGee is a lefty with mid to high 90’s heat. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Even if all three fail to pan out, the Rays still have young pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine to round out the rotation. (Both guys pitched well down the '07 stretch) Still not the worst of options for a #5 starter.
Keeping in mind how unpredictable young players are, there has arguably never been a collection of talent as good as Tampa’s coming together at the exact same time. Most of the talent was assembled through high draft picks thanks in part to the team’s ineptitude. But proper decision making is just as vital, if not more so, when drafting that high. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has been just as bad for just as long, with much less to show for. The thought seems crazy, but playoff baseball in Tampa Bay is not far away. (To speed up the process, I wonder if Andrew Friedman would vote in my idea to switch to the National League!)
10) New York Yankees, 89-73, (2nd place in AL East)
A few years ago, Major League Baseball implemented an unbalanced schedule to capitalize on the growing interest in divisional rivalries. Divisional adversaries now played 18 or 19 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees benefited immensely. After pocketing the huge gates from their 19 wars with each other, both teams were rewarded with 38 games against the floundering Orioles and the atrocious Devil Rays, who have been amongst the league’s worst teams since their inception. However, in light of Toronto and Tampa’s significant improvement, the fun ends this season. The AL East runner-up is no longer guaranteed a playoff spot and as such, the Yankees come into 2008 with a possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
The Yankees enter 2008 in a quasi-rebuilding phase, eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, albeit not as defending champions. While much has been made of the Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy trio (CHK) and their symbolism of the Yankee paradigm shift towards youth, the Yankees remain an expensive team (baseball’s only $200 million team) with old parts. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano are the only regulars under 32 years old. Considering a baseball player’s prime generally exists between ages 27 and 31, it’s possible that the Yankees’ best players’ best seasons are behind them, yet players like Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui are still being paid like superstars. The presence of their contracts has left the Yankees pot-committed, forcing them to scramble to contend as these former stars exit their primes. It also alters management’s decision making in the short term. For example, the extra years tacked on to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera this offseason were irrational long-term and likely to be regretted, but they were completely necessary for the Yankees chances to compete in 2008.
But luckily, the end of the madness is in sight. The Yankees have more than $80 million coming off of their payroll in 2008 followed by another $30 million in 2009. The Cold War with Boston appears to have died down (though it’s now likely to spill over into the amateur draft), signaling a birth of a new era for both teams. Brian Cashman has finally been given the authority to build from within. A system that was barren just two seasons ago now ranks amongst the league’s best.
Joining the CHK trio is 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman, a 6’10’’ right hander from NC State, so potentially dominant that the Yankees drafted and signed him to a major league contract despite knowing that he needed Tommy John surgery. If healthy, Brackman could be the best of the bunch. On the opposite side of the field, the Yankees boast two future all star outfielders, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Jackson could be Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field as the Yankees move into their new stadium in 2009.
Highlighted by two phenomenal young superstars on the left side of the infield, the New York media perpetuates a misconception that the Mets are in better shape for the future than the Yankees. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Taking nothing away from David Wright (the best player in the NL) and Jose Reyes, but even with the discrepancy in age, neither player has ever had a better season than their Bronx counterpart. Fernando Martinez is the only Mets prospect who would crack the Yankees’ top-10, and even still, he’d fall behind Jackson and Tabata on the depth chart. And forget Chamberlain or Hughes, the Mets don’t have one starting pitcher in Kennedy’s class either.
The Yankees will be better than 5th best in the AL and 9th best in baseball. The best team in New York will likely have the second most wins in New York. In the NL East, the Yankees win the division by five games. However, young pitchers struggle with the quality of lineups in the AL and the Yankees do not have strong enough middle relief to compensate for nights when Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t have it. (For Kennedy, it will be much more often than Yankee fans had hoped. He has NL Central starter written all over him.) It also places inordinate pressure on Chien Ming Wang, an excellent pitcher who is unfairly overslotted as an ace in this staff, and Andy Pettitte to pitch deep into games during every start.
But the lineup will still score runs. Alex Rodriguez remains the game’s best hitter (maybe history’s?), Jeter is Jeter, and my MVP runner up pick, Bobby Abreu is in the best shape of his life, poised for a monster season, as he looks for one last huge contract. Will the offense be enough to push New York to the playoffs? It was last year, but the AL has improved immensely once again. This year, I think the Yankees miss the postseason by a hair. However, as the emergent developmental monster lurks towards the forefront, 2008 might be baseball’s final chance to witness an October without the Evil Empire for quite some time.
12) Los Angeles Angels, 90-72, (2nd place in AL West, AL Wild Card)
One of the worst aspects of laziness is that clicking “save as” can be too much work for me. Unsurprisingly, I lost my lengthy entry on the Angels when my brother closed out my Word document without saving it. As a result, I’ve been too demoralized to try recapturing my prior brilliance (explanation for my hiatus) so I will simply leave you with some bulletpoints to get a sense of where I was heading with the Angels preview.
---Predicting the Angels and Mariners to flip-flop from their place in the 2007 standings isn’t as exciting of an upset pick as, say, predicting San Diego over UConn in a March Madness office pool, but it’s a start. In March Madness, you’ll pick an upset because you’re familiar with a good team who seems susceptible to one, not because you are in love with the 13-seed’s chances. If anybody seems susceptible to falling off, it’s the veteran-laden Angels.
---Calling them the Los Angeles Angels is annoying and confusing.
---Which aging free agent center fielders will the Los Angeles teams overpay for this offseason? 2006 brought in Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre; 2007 brought Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Who will it be in 2008? Rocco Baldelli? Mike Cameron? A return of Jim Edmonds? Tune in and find out!
---Every time the Red Sox win a World Series, they sweep the Angels in the ALDS. A playoff without the Angels could be an ominous sign for Boston’s chances. The opposite could be said for New York’s chances.
The longer it takes to finish this preview, the more and more likely I’ll second guess my placement of the Toronto Blue Jays. After three very competitive games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays completed a sleep of the defending World Champions earlier today, proving that they belong in the discussion with the AL’s megapowers. The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games each season for the past ten seasons. Stuck in the highly competitive AL East, the Blue Jays have the most victories of any team who has failed to make the playoffs during the Wild Card era. If Bud Selig chooses to implement my aforementioned “Swap a team to the NL” rule change, the Blue Jays would be a perennial NL powerhouse.
In 2008, the Blue Jays have their best all-around team to date. When healthy, their pitching staff, top to bottom, is the league’s best. Staff ace Roy Halladay is arguably the American League’s best starter. Halladay is a throwback to days when the starting pitcher’s objective was to finish the game that he started. Halladay’s is a refreshing act, one that is nearing extinction given today’s era of 6 IP, 3 ER quality starts. Following Halladay is uber-talented righthander A.J. Burnett, a serious breakout candidate given his contractual status. Burnett has an opt-out clause in his deal and he and his agent have indicated that if he pitches well this season, he will execute his right to opt-out and play the open market. When was the last time Burnett made all of his starts in one season, you ask? His last contract season, the year before signing with Toronto. 2008 has career year written all over it. Rounding out the rotation is a trio of high-upside righthanders in Dustin McGowan (the best of the bunch and future Cy Young candidate), Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, each of whom came on strong towards the end of 2007. Neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees can feel as comfortable with the back end of their rotation as Toronto does.
The Blue Jays will have no problems scoring either. Vernon Wells is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that zapped away all of his power in 2007. Feeling healthy once again, Wells is poised for a strong bounce back campaign. Alex Rios is an emerging superstar, perhaps the best right fielder in the American League. And if “The Big Hurt”, Frank Thomas can continue swinging his imposing bat (RE: Manny Delcarmen), as he has in the early going, the Jays will pose a very deep lineup that wears down weak opposing pitching staffs.
On the other side of the diamond, the addition of Scott Rolen, (who’s currently on the DL with a broken finger), bolsters an already solid defense. When Rolen finally joins second baseman Aaron Hill (who Peter Gammons declared the best all-around 2B in the AL East) and first baseman Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald is at shortstop, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive infield as well.
So, the question remains… Why third place? I wish I had a better answer. The Blue Jays would probably win half of the other divisions in baseball. Trapped in the AL East, they just need too much to go right for them to be left standing come October. This Blue Jays squad can win 90+ games, but more than likely they’ll endure another strong, but playoff-less season, whose reward will be playing spoiler to the Wild Card hopes of the AL East’s second=place team.
11) Tampa Bay Rays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)
The Tampa Bay Rays managed to get rid of the most negativity of any team, this offseason. After officially dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to our city’s capital and the disgruntled Delmon Young to the North Star State. The symbolism was evident. These are not your father’s older brother’s Rays.
BaseballProspectus.com’s famous PECOTA forecasting system is predicting 88 wins. While 88 might be a reach, the Rays enter 2008 with a strong chance to post their first winning season in franchise history. At the very least, the Rays will play a huge role in determining the AL East champions. If the Yankees are the Republicans and the Red Sox are the Democrats, the Rays are an Independent party looking to steal votes. The team they steal the most votes from is likely to lose the divisional race, and possibly the wild card as well.
The future is even brighter than the 2008 outlook. The organization is already looking ahead in that regard. Case in point: their decision to start Evan Longoria in AAA in an effort to delay his arbitration/free angency eligibility.
In 2010, the Rays could post the following lineup:
CF Desmond Jennings
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac
DH Rocco Baldelli (wouldn’t count on it, but let’s not forget how young he is)
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura (or Brignac at 2B with 2008’s 1st overall pick at SS)
With this rotation:
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Matt Garza
Whoever pans out of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jacob McGee
Davis has the best chance of the trio to be a high-quality starter. Niemann would profile well as a reliever, given his size and his injury history. McGee is a lefty with mid to high 90’s heat. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Even if all three fail to pan out, the Rays still have young pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine to round out the rotation. (Both guys pitched well down the '07 stretch) Still not the worst of options for a #5 starter.
Keeping in mind how unpredictable young players are, there has arguably never been a collection of talent as good as Tampa’s coming together at the exact same time. Most of the talent was assembled through high draft picks thanks in part to the team’s ineptitude. But proper decision making is just as vital, if not more so, when drafting that high. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has been just as bad for just as long, with much less to show for. The thought seems crazy, but playoff baseball in Tampa Bay is not far away. (To speed up the process, I wonder if Andrew Friedman would vote in my idea to switch to the National League!)
10) New York Yankees, 89-73, (2nd place in AL East)
A few years ago, Major League Baseball implemented an unbalanced schedule to capitalize on the growing interest in divisional rivalries. Divisional adversaries now played 18 or 19 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees benefited immensely. After pocketing the huge gates from their 19 wars with each other, both teams were rewarded with 38 games against the floundering Orioles and the atrocious Devil Rays, who have been amongst the league’s worst teams since their inception. However, in light of Toronto and Tampa’s significant improvement, the fun ends this season. The AL East runner-up is no longer guaranteed a playoff spot and as such, the Yankees come into 2008 with a possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
The Yankees enter 2008 in a quasi-rebuilding phase, eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, albeit not as defending champions. While much has been made of the Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy trio (CHK) and their symbolism of the Yankee paradigm shift towards youth, the Yankees remain an expensive team (baseball’s only $200 million team) with old parts. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano are the only regulars under 32 years old. Considering a baseball player’s prime generally exists between ages 27 and 31, it’s possible that the Yankees’ best players’ best seasons are behind them, yet players like Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui are still being paid like superstars. The presence of their contracts has left the Yankees pot-committed, forcing them to scramble to contend as these former stars exit their primes. It also alters management’s decision making in the short term. For example, the extra years tacked on to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera this offseason were irrational long-term and likely to be regretted, but they were completely necessary for the Yankees chances to compete in 2008.
But luckily, the end of the madness is in sight. The Yankees have more than $80 million coming off of their payroll in 2008 followed by another $30 million in 2009. The Cold War with Boston appears to have died down (though it’s now likely to spill over into the amateur draft), signaling a birth of a new era for both teams. Brian Cashman has finally been given the authority to build from within. A system that was barren just two seasons ago now ranks amongst the league’s best.
Joining the CHK trio is 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman, a 6’10’’ right hander from NC State, so potentially dominant that the Yankees drafted and signed him to a major league contract despite knowing that he needed Tommy John surgery. If healthy, Brackman could be the best of the bunch. On the opposite side of the field, the Yankees boast two future all star outfielders, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Jackson could be Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field as the Yankees move into their new stadium in 2009.
Highlighted by two phenomenal young superstars on the left side of the infield, the New York media perpetuates a misconception that the Mets are in better shape for the future than the Yankees. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Taking nothing away from David Wright (the best player in the NL) and Jose Reyes, but even with the discrepancy in age, neither player has ever had a better season than their Bronx counterpart. Fernando Martinez is the only Mets prospect who would crack the Yankees’ top-10, and even still, he’d fall behind Jackson and Tabata on the depth chart. And forget Chamberlain or Hughes, the Mets don’t have one starting pitcher in Kennedy’s class either.
The Yankees will be better than 5th best in the AL and 9th best in baseball. The best team in New York will likely have the second most wins in New York. In the NL East, the Yankees win the division by five games. However, young pitchers struggle with the quality of lineups in the AL and the Yankees do not have strong enough middle relief to compensate for nights when Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t have it. (For Kennedy, it will be much more often than Yankee fans had hoped. He has NL Central starter written all over him.) It also places inordinate pressure on Chien Ming Wang, an excellent pitcher who is unfairly overslotted as an ace in this staff, and Andy Pettitte to pitch deep into games during every start.
But the lineup will still score runs. Alex Rodriguez remains the game’s best hitter (maybe history’s?), Jeter is Jeter, and my MVP runner up pick, Bobby Abreu is in the best shape of his life, poised for a monster season, as he looks for one last huge contract. Will the offense be enough to push New York to the playoffs? It was last year, but the AL has improved immensely once again. This year, I think the Yankees miss the postseason by a hair. However, as the emergent developmental monster lurks towards the forefront, 2008 might be baseball’s final chance to witness an October without the Evil Empire for quite some time.
12) Los Angeles Angels, 90-72, (2nd place in AL West, AL Wild Card)
One of the worst aspects of laziness is that clicking “save as” can be too much work for me. Unsurprisingly, I lost my lengthy entry on the Angels when my brother closed out my Word document without saving it. As a result, I’ve been too demoralized to try recapturing my prior brilliance (explanation for my hiatus) so I will simply leave you with some bulletpoints to get a sense of where I was heading with the Angels preview.
---Predicting the Angels and Mariners to flip-flop from their place in the 2007 standings isn’t as exciting of an upset pick as, say, predicting San Diego over UConn in a March Madness office pool, but it’s a start. In March Madness, you’ll pick an upset because you’re familiar with a good team who seems susceptible to one, not because you are in love with the 13-seed’s chances. If anybody seems susceptible to falling off, it’s the veteran-laden Angels.
---Calling them the Los Angeles Angels is annoying and confusing.
---Which aging free agent center fielders will the Los Angeles teams overpay for this offseason? 2006 brought in Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre; 2007 brought Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Who will it be in 2008? Rocco Baldelli? Mike Cameron? A return of Jim Edmonds? Tune in and find out!
---Every time the Red Sox win a World Series, they sweep the Angels in the ALDS. A playoff without the Angels could be an ominous sign for Boston’s chances. The opposite could be said for New York’s chances.
Friday, April 04, 2008
2008 Individual Award Predictions
I was planning on posting these at the end of the preview, but the preview is taking much longer than I expected so I want to put these on record before everyone starts thinking I'm letting the early games influence my picks. Leave your picks in the comments section!
AL MVP:
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP:
1. David Wright
2. Prince Fielder
3. Chase Utley
AL Cy Young:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
NL Cy Young:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Cole Hamels
AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Evan Longoria
3. Clay Buchholz
NL Rookie of the Year:
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Jay Bruce
3. Hiroki Kiroda
AL Manager of the Year:
Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year:
Ned Yost
AL MVP:
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Miguel Cabrera
NL MVP:
1. David Wright
2. Prince Fielder
3. Chase Utley
AL Cy Young:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
NL Cy Young:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Cole Hamels
AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Evan Longoria
3. Clay Buchholz
NL Rookie of the Year:
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Jay Bruce
3. Hiroki Kiroda
AL Manager of the Year:
Joe Maddon
NL Manager of the Year:
Ned Yost
Season Preview, Part IV
Part IV will be slightly smaller than usual, as I am choosing to break the remaining non-playoff teams into two parts. Part V will be the remaining non-playoff teams and Parts VI and VII will be the playoff teams.
15) Philadelphia Phillies, 85-77, (3rd place in NL East)
So Jimmy Rollins wasn’t crazy after all. After declaring the Philadelphia Phillies “the NL East’s team to beat” last year during spring training, Rollins led the Phillies on a historic September run, coming back from seven games out with 17 to play, to storm past the New York Mets and capture the division title. As a result, Rollins was rewarded with a controversial NL MVP (the award belonged to David Wright or Matt Holliday), along with his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award. An even greater performance from Rollins will be necessary in 2008 if the Phillies wish to reach the postseason again.
Last year’s magical run has skewed opinions on this year’s team. Their lineup is still elite. ¾ of their infield are homegrown MVP candidates. The game’s best second baseman, Chase Utley could become Philadelphia’s third straight MVP. (Ryan Howard in 2006, Rollins in 2007)
But discussion of Philadelphia’s lineup, swagger, and clutch ability has taken the focus off of their severe lack of pitching depth. After a spectacular 2007 season, Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels is the only reliable starting pitcher—and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Former ace, Brett Myers is making a return to the rotation after a brief stint as closer last year. There’s no telling if he’ll be able to return to a 200+ IP workload effectively. And the question marks run deeper than Myers. Can Kyle Kendrick and his abysmal 3.7 K/9 rate sustain his performance without striking anybody out? Baseball history says otherwise. Jamie Moyer has gotten a year older. While he won 14 games last season, his ERA was over 5.00. Ironically, if Adam Eaton pitches as “well” as Moyer did last year, he will have knocked a full run off his 2007 6.29 ERA.
The bullpen has just as many questions. Many pundits feel newly acquired closer Brad Lidge has not been the same pitcher since giving up a game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. Lidge will be starting the season on the DL, but when he returns, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first blown save. The Phillies are also missing a shutdown setup man to bridge the gap the Lidge. With starting pitchers who aren’t likely to throw deep into games, the Phillies are likely to lose many ballgames in the later innings. Now taking their torrid September out of the equation, is this a team that you’d trust matching up against improved Atlanta and New York teams? Me neither.
14) Colorado Rockies, 85-77, (3rd Place in NL West)
If the Philadelphia Phillies’ had a torrid September, the Colorado Rockies’ September can only be defined by whatever combination of torrid, scorching, sweltering, and any other word that defines hot you can think of. The Colorado Rockies won 13 of their final 14 regular season games to pull into a tie with the San Diego Padres for the Wild Card. The Rockies followed that up by defeating San Diego in a one-game playoff and sweeping Philadelphia and Arizona in the playoffs, en route to becoming the 2008 National League Champions. The clock didn’t strike twelve for Colorado until Josh Beckett took the mound at Fenway Park and pitched the Red Sox to the first of four straight World Series victories.
In what’s becoming a common theme, teams that finished the season strongly, or needed a borderline miracle run to make the playoffs, end up overrated the following season because fans expect them to build on the previous season’s performance. Instead, they are more likely to regress, as a full season’s worth of games is more indicative of a team’s true ability than one hot stretch at the end of a season. There’s an old saying: “You’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as good as your best game.” This holds true with Colorado and Philadelphia. If Trevor Hoffman never blew that horrendous save against Milwaukee at the end of the season, Colorado would have never made the playoffs, and their 2008 outlook would not be as positive. If the Mets hadn’t completely collapsed down the stretch, the same would be said for the Phillies. Look for both teams to endure similar fates in 2008.
13) Atlanta Braves, 86–76, (2nd Place in NL East)
Flipping through the New York Post and reading the daily bickering between superstars like Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran, you would think the NL East was a two team division. And while nobody would blame you for forgetting about the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals, there’s a team in Atlanta that is undeservedly flying under the radar in the NL East divisional race. The Braves are relishing being overlooked. For too long, the expectations of a deep October run took its toll on Bobby Cox’s club. Most fans view those Braves as failures, despite their run of consecutive divisional titles, for being a team who didn’t capitalize in the big moment except once, winning the World Series in 1995—to some extent, baseball’s Buffalo Bills. But armed with arguably the best lineup in the National League, the Braves are bracing themselves for a serious run at contention in 2008, albeit with a different style than they used during their 90’s reign.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a lineup in the National League better than Atlanta’s. Chipper Jones is still slugging away in the middle of the order, coming off a season in which he tallied the second highest OPS of his illustrious career. Chipper misses his share of games each season, but his production has shown no sign of slowing down. The Braves will also receive a full season of switch-hitting first baseman Mark Teixeira. Jones and Teixeira could give the Braves the best middle of the order, switch-hitting duo in MLB history. SS Yunel Escobar and RF Jeff Francoeur are primed to join the elite at their respective positions while Brian McCann already provides top of the line production behind the plate. Besides the pitcher’s spot in the order, there is no easy out in Atlanta’s lineup.
The Braves have been the media’s sexy upset pick in 2008. ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark, along with Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, are each predicting the Braves to appear in their first World Series since 1999. Gammons and Rosenthal have the Braves losing to the Indians in the World Series while Stark has them victorious over the Detroit Tigers. My hesitation in picking them for the playoffs lies within their pitching staff, ironically the one aspect of their team that had been most dependable throughout the last decade.
12) Chicago Cubs, 87-75, (2nd place in NL Central)
One of my least favorite aspects of the start of a new season is the annual “Chicago Cubs to win World Series” column. Every year, a handful of writers hop aboard the Cubbies’ bandwagon for reasons ranging from “their fans deserve it” to “it would be good for the sport to see them win”. Rarely, if ever, does their reasoning involve baseball. This year, only two of ESPN.com’s nineteen experts picked the Cubs to win the World Series, which appears slightly less than usual. But after adding in the fact that 17 of the 19 picked the Cubs to win the NL Central, the media’s “wishful thinking” quotient is right in line with its normal rate.
The Cubs' big addition this offseason was Japanese OF Kosuke Fukodome. Fukodome has been described as a Bobby Abreu-type. He brings a solid left-handed bat and a very good eye to an overly right-handed team that swings at everything. Ideally, Fukodome should bat 1st or 2nd, in front of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. However, Soriano's stubborn insistence to bat leadoff will ultimately leave Fukodome batting lower in the order, getting on base for guys who can’t knock him in.
It isn’t that the 2008 Cubs are a bad team. They’re likely to be finish as one of the top five or six teams in the entire National League. It’s just that the media’s growing love affair with them every season is not only absurd, it is borderline gimmicky—and gimmicks grow old quickly. Just because the Red Sox and White Sox recently extinguished lengthy championship droughts does not mean that the Cubs are suddenly entitled to as well. For those who feel like I do, fear not: It won’t happen this season either.
15) Philadelphia Phillies, 85-77, (3rd place in NL East)
So Jimmy Rollins wasn’t crazy after all. After declaring the Philadelphia Phillies “the NL East’s team to beat” last year during spring training, Rollins led the Phillies on a historic September run, coming back from seven games out with 17 to play, to storm past the New York Mets and capture the division title. As a result, Rollins was rewarded with a controversial NL MVP (the award belonged to David Wright or Matt Holliday), along with his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award. An even greater performance from Rollins will be necessary in 2008 if the Phillies wish to reach the postseason again.
Last year’s magical run has skewed opinions on this year’s team. Their lineup is still elite. ¾ of their infield are homegrown MVP candidates. The game’s best second baseman, Chase Utley could become Philadelphia’s third straight MVP. (Ryan Howard in 2006, Rollins in 2007)
But discussion of Philadelphia’s lineup, swagger, and clutch ability has taken the focus off of their severe lack of pitching depth. After a spectacular 2007 season, Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels is the only reliable starting pitcher—and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Former ace, Brett Myers is making a return to the rotation after a brief stint as closer last year. There’s no telling if he’ll be able to return to a 200+ IP workload effectively. And the question marks run deeper than Myers. Can Kyle Kendrick and his abysmal 3.7 K/9 rate sustain his performance without striking anybody out? Baseball history says otherwise. Jamie Moyer has gotten a year older. While he won 14 games last season, his ERA was over 5.00. Ironically, if Adam Eaton pitches as “well” as Moyer did last year, he will have knocked a full run off his 2007 6.29 ERA.
The bullpen has just as many questions. Many pundits feel newly acquired closer Brad Lidge has not been the same pitcher since giving up a game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. Lidge will be starting the season on the DL, but when he returns, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first blown save. The Phillies are also missing a shutdown setup man to bridge the gap the Lidge. With starting pitchers who aren’t likely to throw deep into games, the Phillies are likely to lose many ballgames in the later innings. Now taking their torrid September out of the equation, is this a team that you’d trust matching up against improved Atlanta and New York teams? Me neither.
14) Colorado Rockies, 85-77, (3rd Place in NL West)
If the Philadelphia Phillies’ had a torrid September, the Colorado Rockies’ September can only be defined by whatever combination of torrid, scorching, sweltering, and any other word that defines hot you can think of. The Colorado Rockies won 13 of their final 14 regular season games to pull into a tie with the San Diego Padres for the Wild Card. The Rockies followed that up by defeating San Diego in a one-game playoff and sweeping Philadelphia and Arizona in the playoffs, en route to becoming the 2008 National League Champions. The clock didn’t strike twelve for Colorado until Josh Beckett took the mound at Fenway Park and pitched the Red Sox to the first of four straight World Series victories.
In what’s becoming a common theme, teams that finished the season strongly, or needed a borderline miracle run to make the playoffs, end up overrated the following season because fans expect them to build on the previous season’s performance. Instead, they are more likely to regress, as a full season’s worth of games is more indicative of a team’s true ability than one hot stretch at the end of a season. There’s an old saying: “You’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as good as your best game.” This holds true with Colorado and Philadelphia. If Trevor Hoffman never blew that horrendous save against Milwaukee at the end of the season, Colorado would have never made the playoffs, and their 2008 outlook would not be as positive. If the Mets hadn’t completely collapsed down the stretch, the same would be said for the Phillies. Look for both teams to endure similar fates in 2008.
13) Atlanta Braves, 86–76, (2nd Place in NL East)
Flipping through the New York Post and reading the daily bickering between superstars like Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran, you would think the NL East was a two team division. And while nobody would blame you for forgetting about the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals, there’s a team in Atlanta that is undeservedly flying under the radar in the NL East divisional race. The Braves are relishing being overlooked. For too long, the expectations of a deep October run took its toll on Bobby Cox’s club. Most fans view those Braves as failures, despite their run of consecutive divisional titles, for being a team who didn’t capitalize in the big moment except once, winning the World Series in 1995—to some extent, baseball’s Buffalo Bills. But armed with arguably the best lineup in the National League, the Braves are bracing themselves for a serious run at contention in 2008, albeit with a different style than they used during their 90’s reign.
You’d be hard-pressed to find a lineup in the National League better than Atlanta’s. Chipper Jones is still slugging away in the middle of the order, coming off a season in which he tallied the second highest OPS of his illustrious career. Chipper misses his share of games each season, but his production has shown no sign of slowing down. The Braves will also receive a full season of switch-hitting first baseman Mark Teixeira. Jones and Teixeira could give the Braves the best middle of the order, switch-hitting duo in MLB history. SS Yunel Escobar and RF Jeff Francoeur are primed to join the elite at their respective positions while Brian McCann already provides top of the line production behind the plate. Besides the pitcher’s spot in the order, there is no easy out in Atlanta’s lineup.
The Braves have been the media’s sexy upset pick in 2008. ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark, along with Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, are each predicting the Braves to appear in their first World Series since 1999. Gammons and Rosenthal have the Braves losing to the Indians in the World Series while Stark has them victorious over the Detroit Tigers. My hesitation in picking them for the playoffs lies within their pitching staff, ironically the one aspect of their team that had been most dependable throughout the last decade.
12) Chicago Cubs, 87-75, (2nd place in NL Central)
One of my least favorite aspects of the start of a new season is the annual “Chicago Cubs to win World Series” column. Every year, a handful of writers hop aboard the Cubbies’ bandwagon for reasons ranging from “their fans deserve it” to “it would be good for the sport to see them win”. Rarely, if ever, does their reasoning involve baseball. This year, only two of ESPN.com’s nineteen experts picked the Cubs to win the World Series, which appears slightly less than usual. But after adding in the fact that 17 of the 19 picked the Cubs to win the NL Central, the media’s “wishful thinking” quotient is right in line with its normal rate.
The Cubs' big addition this offseason was Japanese OF Kosuke Fukodome. Fukodome has been described as a Bobby Abreu-type. He brings a solid left-handed bat and a very good eye to an overly right-handed team that swings at everything. Ideally, Fukodome should bat 1st or 2nd, in front of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. However, Soriano's stubborn insistence to bat leadoff will ultimately leave Fukodome batting lower in the order, getting on base for guys who can’t knock him in.
It isn’t that the 2008 Cubs are a bad team. They’re likely to be finish as one of the top five or six teams in the entire National League. It’s just that the media’s growing love affair with them every season is not only absurd, it is borderline gimmicky—and gimmicks grow old quickly. Just because the Red Sox and White Sox recently extinguished lengthy championship droughts does not mean that the Cubs are suddenly entitled to as well. For those who feel like I do, fear not: It won’t happen this season either.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Season Preview, Part III
20) Texas Rangers, 75 – 87, (3rd place in AL West)
Whenever I make season predictions, there’s always a random team who sneaks up the chart farther than I expected. This year it’s the Texas Rangers. It’s not that they have gotten particularly better. It’s just that other teams (Oakland, Minnesota, etc.) have regressed a little more.
Last season, the Rangers made a decision to replenish the farm system, trading All-Star 1st baseman Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for the Braves’ three best prospects. (C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, and SP Matt Harrison) Saltalamacchia was the game’s best catching prospect before Matt Weiters got drafted. Andrus is a talented 19-year old shortstop of the ‘Jose Reyes’ mold, who scouts have been raving about since Atlanta signed him as a 16-year old. Harrison is a 22-year old lefthander who has had solid minor league statistics at every point along the way. Although management was slammed for the trade, the deal made a lot of sense for the Rangers. Management had finally committed to righting the ship. Their alternative would have been signing Teixeira to a big money, long-term extension. If they had chosen to go that route, the Rangers would have languished in 70-winville with no signs of getting out anytime soon. Now, they at least have a sense of direction.
The Rangers followed the Teixeira trade with two clever deadline deals. One deal sent Kenny Lofton to the Indians for C Max Ramirez. The other sent Eric Gagne to Boston for three solid prospects, Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre. Gabbard and Murphy are already capable of contributing in the majors and the 18-year old, Beltre is a high-upside five-tool prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has been compared to everyone from Barry Bonds to Alfonso Soriano.
>>Tangent- In those trades, the Rangers pulled off one of my favorite, but underutilized low-market team trade tactics: Signing veterans to low-money, one-year deals, in seasons where you are not going to compete, and trading them to contenders at the trade deadline. Every season, contenders are looking for an extra arm or bat down the stretch. Operating like this is a very low risk technique to replenish your farm system and I don’t understand why more teams refuse to take advantage of it. End Tangent.<<
The Rangers will continue looking towards the future in 2008. If somebody is willing to take Michael Young’s contract, they’ll explore it—-same goes for Hank Blalock. In the offseason, they acquired OF Josh Hamilton for a highly touted pitching prospect, Edinson Volquez. By now everyone knows Hamilton’s story. Hamilton’s talent is limitless. He has the rare type of ability where if he stays of the field, anything is possible. In 2007, he was baseball’s feel-good story. In 2008, he’s back to being a baseball player; the middle of the order bat that will lead the new era of Rangers into the future.
19) Chicago White Sox, 81 – 81, (3rd place in AL Central)
Nothing screams ‘bland team’ more than an 81-81 prediction. From a forecasting standpoint, it’s really a copout. I’m not saying they’re going to be a winner; I’m not saying they’re going to be a loser. They’re the guy who doesn’t get pinned in a triple threat match.
These White Sox are caught in the same predicament as their ’05 World Series adversaries. They are stuck in “No Man’s Land”. Like the Astros, Kenny Williams still believes he has a championship-caliber nucleus. If just three years ago guys like Paul Konerko, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye, amongst others, could be integral elements of a World Series champion, why couldn’t that still be the case today? Naturally, it is an age issue. The vets are reaching ages where sharp declines in performance are to be expected. (See Konerko, Contreras, and Dye’s 2007) But since these veterans are locked into expensive long-term contracts, it forces Williams to keep building on in hopes of a bounceback, through acquisitions of players like Nick Swisher (Expect a huge season!) and Orlando Cabrera (Expect a huge decline!), even though the likelihood of a playoff run isn’t there.
Like the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals, the White Sox won the World Series with a very veteran-laden team. Veteran-laden teams are the least likely to build perennial winners because of inevitable performance declines. Plus, in the aftermath of a championship, emotional attachments often affect decision making, making it hard to part ways with popular “winning” players. Unlike Theo Epstein’s handling of the 2004 Red Sox, Williams was fooled by the 2005 playoffs into overrating his team’s chances of competing again in 2006. They became buyers instead of sellers. Not helping matters is the fact that Williams is a believer of old school baseball mantra: Gritty, gutsy veteran players can drive a team to a championship on sheer perseverance. In 2005, the White Sox caught a perfect storm of timely hitting and extremely hot pitching—not because Konerko, Contreras, and Dye are particularly made for October baseball, but because that specific October, they played well enough to become champions. While fans will never forget that championship run, it will ultimately postpone the franchise’s return to success.
18) San Diego Padres, 83–79, (4th place in NL West)
With seventeen teams remaining, we have reached the point where every team left has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. For all the complaints about competitive balance in baseball, this is essentially the same ratio heading into the season as the NFL.
The NL West is going to be baseball’s tightest division. Aside from the pitiable San Francisco Giants, each team could either win the division or finish in 4th place. It’s that close. This season the Padres are the most likely of the bunch to regress. Their lineup has gotten very old, very quickly. Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles would have made a great outfield six or seven years ago. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez, there aren’t any bats that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs last year, but his pitiful .292 obp takes away any positive thoughts about his bat.
Luckily, the Padres realize that they are not going to win baseball games by outslugging their opponents. Kevin Towers has done an excellent job picking up building a staff that thrives in the Petco Park confines. Jake Peavy is the reigning Cy Young winner and Chris Young was an All-Star experiencing a breakout year before an injury derailed his 2007 campaign. When pitching at Petco, there might not be a better duo in the league. Amazingly, Greg Maddux is still an effective third starter. After that, the Padres have some trouble. While Randy Wolf still has a strong K/9 rate, he’s not the type of starter that a playoff team would depend on. They took a smart low-risk chance on Mark Prior but at this point, only an extreme optimist could envision him contributing again. If Prior can come back effectively, it will bump the Padres up a few games, possibly putting them right back into the divisional picture. I’m just not counting on that.
17) Cincinnati Reds, 84–78, (3rd place in NL Central)
The Cincinnati Reds are my 2008 sleeper team. They are a team with great high-end prospects in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Throw in starter Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, and it’s easy to see why Baseball America lists Cincy with the third best farm system, behind Tampa Bay and Boston.
The Reds have plenty of talent at the Major League level as well. Adam Dunn is a consistent 40-HR threat in left field and Brandon Phillips has emerged as one of the game’s elite second basemen. The Reds have an impressive one-two combo at the top of their rotation in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and youngster Johnny Cueto could become the best of the bunch. The 22-year old righthander is already drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez, throwing a 98 mph heater with a devastating changeup. (EDIT: In his first start, Cueto one-hit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks) The Reds also solidified their bullpen by signing closer Francisco Cordero to a 4-year deal.
If I had any idea what Dusty Baker was thinking, I’d feel much more confident adding a few wins to their total. For now, thoughts of Baker’s managerial style are holding me back. Baker has been reluctant throughout his career to rely on rookies in his everyday lineup. Bruce, baseball’s top prospect, has already been sent to AAA, while Votto is left sharing at bats with Scott Hatteberg at first base. Also, during his tenure with Chicago, Baker’s usage of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were classic examples of how NOT to manage talented young arms. Is this really the right manager for a team whose future relies heavily on Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez’s right arms? You tell me.
16) Detroit Tigers, 84–78, (2nd place in AL Central, )
---I don’t understand the rationale of building an offensive juggernaut in a pitcher’s ballpark. Wouldn’t that negate any positive effect of a strong lineup?
---They are way too trendy of a pick.
---Pudge Rodriguez sucks, Edgar Renteria will always be a bum, Magglio Ordonez can’t possibly replicate his 2007 season, and Placido Polanco’s not nearly as good defensively as his 0 errors in 2007 would lead you to believe
---Carlos Guillen can rake. He’ll be even better having moved off of shortstop.
---Missing Curtis Granderson is going to kill them. In 2007, Granderson moved himself into Grady Sizemore’s class of elite CF.
---I am not sold on their pitching staff. Justin Verlander has been extremely overworked in his first two seasons that he’s likely to experience some regression this year. Jeremy Bonderman is not what he’s cranked up to be. Kenny Rogers is older than Jesus. Dontrelle Willis is probably going to continue on the downward spiral that his career has been on. They do not have a strong bullpen. Todd Jones should not be closing for a contender. Zumaya and Rodney are still hurt. It’s really not a good staff. Is it manageable if Detroit scores? Sure, and for that reason I expect them to compete. They just won’t make the playoffs.
Part IV tomorrow
Whenever I make season predictions, there’s always a random team who sneaks up the chart farther than I expected. This year it’s the Texas Rangers. It’s not that they have gotten particularly better. It’s just that other teams (Oakland, Minnesota, etc.) have regressed a little more.
Last season, the Rangers made a decision to replenish the farm system, trading All-Star 1st baseman Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for the Braves’ three best prospects. (C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, and SP Matt Harrison) Saltalamacchia was the game’s best catching prospect before Matt Weiters got drafted. Andrus is a talented 19-year old shortstop of the ‘Jose Reyes’ mold, who scouts have been raving about since Atlanta signed him as a 16-year old. Harrison is a 22-year old lefthander who has had solid minor league statistics at every point along the way. Although management was slammed for the trade, the deal made a lot of sense for the Rangers. Management had finally committed to righting the ship. Their alternative would have been signing Teixeira to a big money, long-term extension. If they had chosen to go that route, the Rangers would have languished in 70-winville with no signs of getting out anytime soon. Now, they at least have a sense of direction.
The Rangers followed the Teixeira trade with two clever deadline deals. One deal sent Kenny Lofton to the Indians for C Max Ramirez. The other sent Eric Gagne to Boston for three solid prospects, Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre. Gabbard and Murphy are already capable of contributing in the majors and the 18-year old, Beltre is a high-upside five-tool prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has been compared to everyone from Barry Bonds to Alfonso Soriano.
>>Tangent- In those trades, the Rangers pulled off one of my favorite, but underutilized low-market team trade tactics: Signing veterans to low-money, one-year deals, in seasons where you are not going to compete, and trading them to contenders at the trade deadline. Every season, contenders are looking for an extra arm or bat down the stretch. Operating like this is a very low risk technique to replenish your farm system and I don’t understand why more teams refuse to take advantage of it. End Tangent.<<
The Rangers will continue looking towards the future in 2008. If somebody is willing to take Michael Young’s contract, they’ll explore it—-same goes for Hank Blalock. In the offseason, they acquired OF Josh Hamilton for a highly touted pitching prospect, Edinson Volquez. By now everyone knows Hamilton’s story. Hamilton’s talent is limitless. He has the rare type of ability where if he stays of the field, anything is possible. In 2007, he was baseball’s feel-good story. In 2008, he’s back to being a baseball player; the middle of the order bat that will lead the new era of Rangers into the future.
19) Chicago White Sox, 81 – 81, (3rd place in AL Central)
Nothing screams ‘bland team’ more than an 81-81 prediction. From a forecasting standpoint, it’s really a copout. I’m not saying they’re going to be a winner; I’m not saying they’re going to be a loser. They’re the guy who doesn’t get pinned in a triple threat match.
These White Sox are caught in the same predicament as their ’05 World Series adversaries. They are stuck in “No Man’s Land”. Like the Astros, Kenny Williams still believes he has a championship-caliber nucleus. If just three years ago guys like Paul Konerko, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye, amongst others, could be integral elements of a World Series champion, why couldn’t that still be the case today? Naturally, it is an age issue. The vets are reaching ages where sharp declines in performance are to be expected. (See Konerko, Contreras, and Dye’s 2007) But since these veterans are locked into expensive long-term contracts, it forces Williams to keep building on in hopes of a bounceback, through acquisitions of players like Nick Swisher (Expect a huge season!) and Orlando Cabrera (Expect a huge decline!), even though the likelihood of a playoff run isn’t there.
Like the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals, the White Sox won the World Series with a very veteran-laden team. Veteran-laden teams are the least likely to build perennial winners because of inevitable performance declines. Plus, in the aftermath of a championship, emotional attachments often affect decision making, making it hard to part ways with popular “winning” players. Unlike Theo Epstein’s handling of the 2004 Red Sox, Williams was fooled by the 2005 playoffs into overrating his team’s chances of competing again in 2006. They became buyers instead of sellers. Not helping matters is the fact that Williams is a believer of old school baseball mantra: Gritty, gutsy veteran players can drive a team to a championship on sheer perseverance. In 2005, the White Sox caught a perfect storm of timely hitting and extremely hot pitching—not because Konerko, Contreras, and Dye are particularly made for October baseball, but because that specific October, they played well enough to become champions. While fans will never forget that championship run, it will ultimately postpone the franchise’s return to success.
18) San Diego Padres, 83–79, (4th place in NL West)
With seventeen teams remaining, we have reached the point where every team left has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. For all the complaints about competitive balance in baseball, this is essentially the same ratio heading into the season as the NFL.
The NL West is going to be baseball’s tightest division. Aside from the pitiable San Francisco Giants, each team could either win the division or finish in 4th place. It’s that close. This season the Padres are the most likely of the bunch to regress. Their lineup has gotten very old, very quickly. Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles would have made a great outfield six or seven years ago. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez, there aren’t any bats that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs last year, but his pitiful .292 obp takes away any positive thoughts about his bat.
Luckily, the Padres realize that they are not going to win baseball games by outslugging their opponents. Kevin Towers has done an excellent job picking up building a staff that thrives in the Petco Park confines. Jake Peavy is the reigning Cy Young winner and Chris Young was an All-Star experiencing a breakout year before an injury derailed his 2007 campaign. When pitching at Petco, there might not be a better duo in the league. Amazingly, Greg Maddux is still an effective third starter. After that, the Padres have some trouble. While Randy Wolf still has a strong K/9 rate, he’s not the type of starter that a playoff team would depend on. They took a smart low-risk chance on Mark Prior but at this point, only an extreme optimist could envision him contributing again. If Prior can come back effectively, it will bump the Padres up a few games, possibly putting them right back into the divisional picture. I’m just not counting on that.
17) Cincinnati Reds, 84–78, (3rd place in NL Central)
The Cincinnati Reds are my 2008 sleeper team. They are a team with great high-end prospects in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Throw in starter Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, and it’s easy to see why Baseball America lists Cincy with the third best farm system, behind Tampa Bay and Boston.
The Reds have plenty of talent at the Major League level as well. Adam Dunn is a consistent 40-HR threat in left field and Brandon Phillips has emerged as one of the game’s elite second basemen. The Reds have an impressive one-two combo at the top of their rotation in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and youngster Johnny Cueto could become the best of the bunch. The 22-year old righthander is already drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez, throwing a 98 mph heater with a devastating changeup. (EDIT: In his first start, Cueto one-hit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks) The Reds also solidified their bullpen by signing closer Francisco Cordero to a 4-year deal.
If I had any idea what Dusty Baker was thinking, I’d feel much more confident adding a few wins to their total. For now, thoughts of Baker’s managerial style are holding me back. Baker has been reluctant throughout his career to rely on rookies in his everyday lineup. Bruce, baseball’s top prospect, has already been sent to AAA, while Votto is left sharing at bats with Scott Hatteberg at first base. Also, during his tenure with Chicago, Baker’s usage of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were classic examples of how NOT to manage talented young arms. Is this really the right manager for a team whose future relies heavily on Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez’s right arms? You tell me.
16) Detroit Tigers, 84–78, (2nd place in AL Central, )
---I don’t understand the rationale of building an offensive juggernaut in a pitcher’s ballpark. Wouldn’t that negate any positive effect of a strong lineup?
---They are way too trendy of a pick.
---Pudge Rodriguez sucks, Edgar Renteria will always be a bum, Magglio Ordonez can’t possibly replicate his 2007 season, and Placido Polanco’s not nearly as good defensively as his 0 errors in 2007 would lead you to believe
---Carlos Guillen can rake. He’ll be even better having moved off of shortstop.
---Missing Curtis Granderson is going to kill them. In 2007, Granderson moved himself into Grady Sizemore’s class of elite CF.
---I am not sold on their pitching staff. Justin Verlander has been extremely overworked in his first two seasons that he’s likely to experience some regression this year. Jeremy Bonderman is not what he’s cranked up to be. Kenny Rogers is older than Jesus. Dontrelle Willis is probably going to continue on the downward spiral that his career has been on. They do not have a strong bullpen. Todd Jones should not be closing for a contender. Zumaya and Rodney are still hurt. It’s really not a good staff. Is it manageable if Detroit scores? Sure, and for that reason I expect them to compete. They just won’t make the playoffs.
Part IV tomorrow
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Breaking News!!!
After 15 innings, the San Francisco Giants are officially on the scoreboard!!!! Barry Who?!
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