Season Preview, Part II

25) Kansas City Royals, 72–90, (5th place in AL Central)

Not too long ago, I thought up a silly rule change that would be extremely beneficial to teams like the Kansas City Royals. Every three years, two American League teams get swapped for two National League teams in their divisional counterpart. Sort of like the WWE Draft Lottery, where five superstars get swapped between Raw and Smackdown.

What would this accomplish? Right now, regardless of their decision making, the Royals will always be stuck in AL-Purgatory. The Cold War between the Red Sox and the Yankees cause every other AL team to spend more money to keep up. The average American League payroll was over $90 million in 2007. In the National League, it was slightly higher than $75 million. The NL lacks the megapowers driving up the payrolls of the rest of the league. Teams like the Mets and the Dodgers have the ability to create this effect, but neither team has been consistently good in their decision making of late, so teams aren't forced to spend at the same level to compete them. This makes it much tougher to get out of the AL’s basement.

Now let’s put my rule into effect for 2010. Switch Kansas City with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wouldn’t it feel like Kansas City’s a little bit closer to relevance? Rather than being nowhere near a playoff spot, you’d start to believe that they are a few moves away from competing for the NL Central or the Wild Card. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are going to be studs. Joakim Soria solidified himself as a very solid closer, proving to be one of the best Rule-5 draft picks in recent memory. By that time, RHP Luke Hochevar, SS Mike Moutsakas, and their 2008 selection will be joining them. A few more, wise free-agent signings by Dayton Moore, (Gil Meche had a great 2007 and I expect Jose Guillen to do the same, now that he has left Safeco Park) and you have the makings of a very intriguing team. Instead, they’ll hover around AL-mediocrity while Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago battle it out for the division title. Here’s to swapping the Royals and the Pirates in 2010!! Make it happen, Selig!!

24) Washington Nationals, 73-89, (4th place in NL East)

Heading into last season, most baseball publications predicted the Nationals to be one of the worst teams in MLB history. Under first-year manager Manny Acta, the Nationals outperformed those expectations, finishing at 73-89, good for 4th place in the NL East. Ironically, the Nationals are heading towards the same record and standing in 2008, although they’ve improved their lineup significantly.

Starting with last season’s acquisition of Wily Mo Pena, the Nationals have made a handful of low-risk, high-reward trades for underutilized, “buy-low” outfielders. Lastings Milledge was stolen away from the New York Mets for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider and Elijah Dukes was acquired from Tampa Bay for a lower level pitching prospect. Pena was blocked from getting at-bats in Boston at every possible position (LF, RF, DH), but in Washington, when he returns from injury, he’ll have an opportunity to hit 30-40 home runs as the everyday left fielder. From his short stint as a Red Sox, I’ve never seen a player hit a ball harder or look funnier camping out under a routine fly ball. Enjoy watching this guy, Nationals fans.

Milledge was unfairly labeled as a bad character guy for being young and exciting on an old and boring team. Nothing will make me happier than seeing Milledge blossom into the superstar that scouts think he will become. After Mets fans ostracized him for wearing a big chain and hi-fiving fans after hitting a huge home run, they deserve nothing more than to have Milledge destroy them 19 times a season.

Dukes is the wild card of the bunch. He has had countless run-ins with the law and many believe that he struggled in separating himself from the negative influences from the inner-city, Tampa area he grew up in. But nobody can deny Dukes’s talent. And if relocation is what he needs to get his life on track, he is still young enough (23) to become the premier middle of the order bat that Tampa once envisioned.

Fantasy Hint - Look for Ryan Zimmerman to have a huge season in Nationals Park, solidifying himself as a fixture amongst the offensive superduperstar third basemen in the league. He’s already there defensively. Also, if the at-bats are there, Austin Kearns will have a huge season. No player had his numbers deflated in RFK as much as Kearns did. The offense will be revitalized by moving out of RFK Stadium and into Nationals Park, though the reverse can be said for the pitching staff.

23) Minnesota Twins, 73–89, (4th place in AL Central)

Minnesota’s mismanagement of the offseason has me so frustrated with them that I don’t even want to write anything about their 2008 season. (Not to mention, they are one of the corny teams that I have always disliked.) The Santana trade was a complete blunder and after trading Santana, resigning Joe Nathan made zero sense.
Finding a closer is much easier than finding a starter. That’s why middle-market teams never overpay for one. The Twins could have used Nathan’s money to sign Santana, trade Nathan for prospects, and promote Pat Neshak to closer. Wouldn't this have made more sense? I do think the Twins will be better than people expect, especially if Liriano returns to form and Delmon Young learns how to take a pitch, but they are nowhere near ready to contend. Serves them right, too, after the way their cheapskate owner screwed their fans over this offseason.

22) Oakland Athletics, 73-89, (4th place in AL West)

There are a handful of general managers whose judgment I trust enough to give the benefit of the doubt regardless of my initial impression of their moves. Billy Beane is one of them. While losing two excellent players in the Danny Haren and Nick Swisher trades is never a good thing, there’s no question that the deals have drastically improved the A’s long term well-being. In a recent column on ESPN.com, Rob Neyer had an excellent take regarding Oakland’s decision to rebuild:

“Analytically, Beane had no choice. Last season the A's won 76 games. If they brought back the same team next season, they'd have been lucky to win 86 games, which almost surely wouldn't qualify them for the postseason. Essentially, 85 isn't much better than 75, and if you're going to win 75, you might as well win 65. Assuming, of course, that winning 65 puts you on the road to 95.”

Beane realizes that when you lack the resources of big-market teams, you have to stay ahead of the curve. Given MLB’s economic structure, nothing is worse for a lower market franchise than mediocrity. In order to rejoin the elite, you have to break it down and start from scratch, but most importantly, you must identify the right time to do so. If Oakland keeps Swisher and Haren, are they going to win the AL West? Probably not. Instead, by attacking the rebuilding phase proactively, Beane brought in seven prospects that currently rank amongst Oakland’s top 12. These seven players have a much better chance of contributing to Oakland’s next winning team than Swisher and Haren would have. The same could be said about Rich Harden, Huston Street, and Bobby Crosby, which only tells me that Beane is not through yet. If Harden and Crosby can stay healthy through April, I’d be shocked if Beane didn’t move them. The return that these veterans bring in will do wonders in keeping Oakland competitive when they move into their new ballpark in 2011. 65 wins are not bad if they have you on the road to 95.

21) Houston Astros, 75-87, (4th place in NL Central)

The Astros are the total opposite of the A’s. Whereas Billy Beane correctly identified that his team was unable to compete in 2008, Ed Wade has fooled himself into believing that the Astros are better than they are. Rather than accept his 2008 fate and put his best foot forward for the future, Wade has chosen to add pricey veterans in hopes of defying the odds. This method of thinking never works in baseball and certainly won't work in Houston. All adding Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui will accomplish is ensuring Houston of spending more money per loss than they would have otherwise, while delaying any future return to contention. Like the A's, the Astros aren't making the playoffs in 2008 or 2009. But after this offseason's moves, whose roster would you rather have in 2010?

Part III coming soon!!!

Season Preview...Part I

Welcome back everyone! Apparently my failure in assessing the Johan Santana trade market sent me into hibernation for a few weeks, but alas, I am back with some predictions for the 2008 season. Hopefully I'll have better luck this time around so I won’t be too embarrassed to continue posting regularly. Let the countdown begin!!!

30) San Francisco Giants, 58–104, (5th place in NL West)

Nobody deserves their 2008 fate more than the San Francisco Giants. The way that the Giants have abandoned Barry Bonds, the man responsible for the construction of Pac Bell Park (or is it AT&T Park?), is embarrassing. After years of sucking every possible dollar out of him, Brian Sabean throws him to the wolves, even though HE WAS STILL THEIR MOST PRODUCTIVE PLAYER IN 2007!!!! He led the league in on base percentage AGAIN! His OPS was just 20 points lower than the great Alex Rodriguez!

For Sabean to act like he is doing this team a favor by eliminating Bonds from the equation is absolutely absurd. It’s not even like he’s replacing Bonds with a trio of 24 year olds who are pushing their way into the lineup. From left to right, the Giants are starting Dave Roberts, Aaron Rowand, and Randy Winn. It’s inexcusable. The rest of their lineup is atrocious and their farm system is even worse (Angel Villalona, their one elite prospect, is still YEARS away). I feel as if I am doing them a favor by listing them with 58 wins.

Hopefully, the press continues to write all these stories about how great their team chemistry is without Bonds in the middle of June, when the Giants are setting all-time records for ‘earliest date eliminated from playoff picture”. The lone bright spot for the Giants are their pair of young right-handed flamethrowers Tim Lincecum and 2007 winner of the “Pitcher Win-Loss Record Means Absolutely Nothing” Award, and likely back to back recipient in 2008, Matt Cain. Sadly, I don’t even think this duo can save the Giants from 100+ losses.

*$ Hint- Register on bodoglife.com right now and put down everything you own on San Francisco going under. Their win-loss over under is 71 ½. Also, list nxouris38@aol.com as your referral. :)


29) Florida Marlins, 61–101, (5th place in NL East)

If history is any indication, the Marlins are one year away from winning the World Series again. After dismantling their 1997 World Champion team, the Marlins responded six years later with an upset of the New York Yankees for another championship in 2003.

Truthfully, their return to glory is going to take a little bit longer this time around. The Marlins’ big move this offseason sent LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera to Detroit for six prospects, the most noteworthy being OF Cameron Maybin and LHP Andrew Miller. Miller has frontline starter potential but he has been rushed through the minor leagues to compensate for being awarded a major league contract out of the draft. Maybin, a scout’s dream mixture of tools and performance, still needs more time to develop in the minor leagues before the Marlins can trot him out in center field every day. Plus, it makes no sense to keep his service time running when you have no chance to compete anyway.

One nice thing about the Marlins in comparison to the other lousy teams is that the Marlins might have the best player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez. That’s certainly more than the Giants say. From a storyline standpoint, the most interesting aspect of the Marlins will be watching Ramirez as he approaches arbitration. Will he become the franchise superstar that the Marlins decide to build around when their new park opens in 2011, or will he follow the path of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett before him? On a side note, how sad is it that a question like this is one of the most important things a Marlins fan has to look forward to in 2008? Ouch.

28) Baltimore Orioles 62-100, (5th place in AL East)

The first non Quadruple-A team on the list is the Baltimore Orioles. Like the previous two teams, the Orioles are headed for a last place finish, their first since 1988. However, for the first time in quite a while, I’ve actually been impressed with the Orioles offseason.

Owner Peter Angelos has finally taken a step back from baseball decisions allowing Andy MacPhail to focus on bringing a winning team back to Baltimore. MacPhail’s first goal was to rebuild a decrepit farm system. After landing prize catcher prospect Matt Weiters in last June’s draft, the Orioles traded away Miguel Tejada and Eric Bedard for ten players, the jewel being 22-year-old outfielder Adam Jones. I just don’t understand why they stopped there.

The O’s are filled with experienced veterans who could help out teams in contention—guys like Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, and Ramon Hernandez. There’s really no point in holding on to these players since none of them will be around when the Orioles are ready to win again anyway. Brian Roberts has been rumored to be traded to the Chicago Cubs all offseason. The O’s need to pull the trigger already. Millar would be a great fit with the Mets to split time with Delgado at first base and play a little bit of outfield when Alou is out.

If MacPhail can make a couple more of these trades, and continue the emphasis on player development, the Orioles will take a much larger leap back to relevance in the American League. For now, they’re left with a goal for 2008 of not losing 100 games.

27) Pittsburgh Pirates, 68 – 94, (6th place in NL Central)

I watch a lot of baseball. I watch as many Red Sox games as I can, and the MLB Extra Innings package gives me plenty of alternatives during the rest of my free time. However, I can not remember the last time I watched an entire Pittsburgh Pirates game. Last season, I watched at least one full game of every team in the league except for Pittsburgh.

There isn’t a single interesting player on this team and there hasn’t been one since Barry Bonds left. This is a problem for a team that hasn’t had a winning season in 15 years. The Pirates aren’t a franchise like Oakland or Minnesota that has been stacked with talented players but loses them because of the nature of the market. They haven’t developed one decent homegrown everyday player worth building around (And for the record, I’m not sold on Andrew McCutchen either. I’ll pass any chance I can on your typical toolsy outfielder.) There’s no excuse to have a farm system that terrible when you are a perennial loser. You draft near the top every year! You should make the right decision at least once, on sheer luck alone. Sadly, they haven’t.

Last year, before getting fired, ex-GM Dave Littlefield passed on Matt Weiters in the June draft to select a relief pitcher (Dan Moskos) because he didn’t want to pay Weiters the $6 million signing bonus that Scott Boras demanded. Littlefield followed that decision up at the trade deadline by trading two midlevel prospects to San Francisco for Matt Morris, and the $13.7 million left on Morris’s deal. I can’t understand the rationale behind allocating your resources like that. This is the most poorly run organization in the game right now and hopefully for Pirates fans, this will change under the new administration, now that Littlefield has been fired. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny provide the lone bright spots, but even still, can you ever imagine saying to yourself, “Hey Ian Snell’s pitching tonight. I better dip out of work early to catch that one!”? Yea, me neither.

26) St. Louis Cardinals, 71-91, (5th place in NL Central)

For as long as I’ve followed sports, I’ve always had a few random teams that I hated for no reason. Corny teams like the Minnesota Twins during the Brad Radke/Luis Castillo years or the Sacramento Kings during the Peja/CWebb years—they weren’t rivals of my favorite teams, but they annoyed me enough to dislike them.

The 2002-05 St. Louis Cardinals were another one of these teams. Nothing made me happier than seeing them await the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series because I knew it was inevitable that the World Series drought was about to come to an end. There wasn’t a bigger fraud team in MLB during that time period than St. Louis. After the Red Sox swept them and they lost to the Astros the following season, I figured St. Louis’s window of opportunity to win a championship had passed them by.

Sure enough, the unthinkable happened. The 2006 Cardinals, who barely had any business making the playoffs, shocked the world, by defeating the Detroit Tigers in the World Series in dominating fashion. If you Google Billy Beane’s “Postseason is a Crapshoot” theory, the 2006 Cardinals would be Exhibit A. Sadly, that one run of good luck wiped vindicated their failures in the previous postseasons.

Now what does any of this have to do with 2008? Had the Cardinals simply missed the playoffs in 2006, as they should have, they would have responded to the season differently. Their reaction to winning the World Series is the reason why they are going to be lousy this season. Rather than objectively evaluate their 83-win team, and put into place a plan to get back to the 90-win plateau, the Cardinals were fooled by an extremely small sample size into thinking they were a championship caliber team. They believed the performance of a mediocre pitching staff and aging veteran hitters in a 15 game stretch in October was more indicative of their ability than the previous 162 games. This reactive method of managing, one very similar to that of the Chicago White Sox, has set them back a few years, leaving them one of only 5 or 6 NL teams with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs in 2008.

Part II coming tomorrow....