Look for the Hitman to Pull Off the Upset

Ricky Hatton has traveled this road before.

The Las Vegas megafight at MGM Grand, the 24/7 series, the bright lights of HBO PPV, the opponent universally regarded as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world—the script for Saturday’s showdown with Manny Pacquiao is practically a replica of his fight against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Dec. 2007.

The subtle differences between the two fights, however, will lead to one major difference: the outcome. Unlike 16 months ago, Hatton will leave Las Vegas victorious.

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Hatton-Pacquiao has become a tale of unsubstantiated mainstream perception.

Hatton is considered a loser for being stopped by a brilliantly placed check hook—arguably the most perfectly-executed punch I have ever seen—by one of the most talented boxers who ever lived.

Pacquaio, on the other hand, has been deemed this generation’s Henry Armstrong, a warrior capable of defeating all-comers at any weight, after blowout victories over an uninspiring David Diaz at 135 pounds and a completely washed up Oscar De La Hoya at 147 pounds.

For Hatton, the perception could not be farther from the truth. Though I had him significantly behind on points, Hatton’s swarming style kept Mayweather—a much larger, more talented opponent—uncomfortable for a substantial portion of the fight.

Mayweather needed his “A Game” to finally put Hatton away, something Pretty Boy Floyd very rarely has to do. That is a testament to the competitor Hatton is. There is no shame in a junior welterweight losing to the best welterweight alive.

For Pacquiao, the perception could be the truth—there just isn’t sufficient enough evidence to be sure. Despite his last two victories, Pacquiao has still not proven that he can beat a heavier, stronger world class opponent.

De La Hoya was a shell of his former self and Diaz was a champion in the sense of the word that just about everyone in today’s era of multiple weight classes and sanctioning bodies is a champion—Hatton would have disposed of both fighters in similar fashion.

That’s not to say Pacquiao is some slouch. His performances in both fights were remarkable. But each of the questions posed before the De La Hoya fight remain unanswered: Can Pacquiao withstand a naturally bigger fighter’s power? Can Pacquiao hurt a fighter who is used to taking punches from heavier-handed opponents? The answer has yet to be seen.

Yes, Pacquiao is the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. The outcome of his war with Hatton should have no bearing on that status (though Mayweather’s return to the ring will). But pound-for-pound rankings do not guarantee victory against any lesser ranked opponent at any weight. They simply measure a fighter’s ability relative to his size.

For example, Max Kellerman, formerly of ESPN Radio, deems Nate Robinson the best player in the NBA, inch-for-inch. This isn’t to say that Robinson is better than Tim Duncan or capable of beating Kobe Bryant one on one, but that in Kellerman’s opinion, Robinson is better relative to his height than other players are relative to their own.

The criteria for these mythical rankings is entirely subjective and in many ways meaningless. Pacquiao may be better pound-for-pound, but this does not make him a shoo-in to defeat Hatton. Mayweather’s ability to do so has no bearing on this fight.

This time around, Hatton is the bigger boxer at his optimal weight. When the bell rings, it is conceivable that Hatton will enter the ring anywhere from 150 to 160 pounds. Unlike against De La Hoya, where Manny actually entered the ring as the heavier fighter, on Saturday night, Pacquiao will be lucky to weigh within 10 pounds of Hatton.

And more importantly, Pacquiao’s “A Game” is not Mayweather’s. He does not possess Mayweather’s size, power, or defense—he will likely get hit with more flush shots in rounds one and two than Mayweather was hit with all night. His style is much more conducive to getting hit, precisely the type of opponent that Hatton can bully and work inside against.

At the junior-welterweight limit, Hatton has never lost a fight. The preceding sentence will remain true when this fight is over.

They say there’s only one Ricky Hatton. Saturday night, that one Ricky Hatton will have only one more victory.

Prediction: Hatton KO11