Ellsbury's Star Shines Brighter in October

During Game 2 of the 2001 ALDS between Oakland and New York, my brother Billy (10 years old at the time) asked me why the Red Sox never had players like Johnny Damon. Damon underperformed in his lone season with Oakland but remnants of the Kansas City star were evident once October rolled around.

Damon went 4-4 in Game 1 and added two more hits in Game 2—two Oakland victories. He patrolled the outfield gracefully, possessing a game-changing speed atop the order that affected how Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte operated.

Even Damon’s outs were productive. He saw 22 pitches when making his three outs that night. I’m not sure if Nomar Garciaparra ever saw that many pitches in a week, let alone three at-bats.

I didn’t have an answer for Billy.

The Red Sox, at the time, were finally ending the Carl Everett era while toying with the idea of a young, slim Trot Nixon patrolling center field. The farm system was barren and speed was not common amongst Red Sox. (Everett led the Sox with 9 SB in 2001.) Ironically, Dan Duquette heeded Billy’s advice and signed Damon that off-season. For once, the Red Sox had the prototypical leadoff hitter that they lacked my entire life.

Well, if Billy had a 10-year old younger brother watching last night’s ALDS game with him—which I’m glad he doesn’t, because that would be weird—“Why don’t the Red Sox ever have players like Johnny Damon?” is one question that would most certainly never been asked.

Why?

Because Jacoby Ellsbury is that player.  His presence changes the complexions of postseason games like no other Red Sox player on the roster.



Ask the Colorado Rockies what it was like pitching to Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz after Ellsbury reached base in 50% of his World Series plate appearances. Ask Mike Napoli (or Matt Napoli, as Buck Martinez calls him) how defenseless he feels with Ellsbury at first and Pedroia at the plate. Ask Mike Scioscia how it felt watching the 8th inning play out after Ellsbury robbed Mark Teixeira’s on a sinking line drive for the first out, preventing a potentially huge inning.

Ellsbury possesses a rare, multifaceted talent that is magnified during low-scoring October baseball. He’s reminiscent of a young Damon spraying line drives to all fields but with stronger plate discipline, more speed, Gold-Glove defense, and a Floyd Mayweather demeanor that flourishes as the lights get brighter.

Last night provided more of what Red Sox fans have grown to expect. Ellsbury went 3 for 5, stealing two bases and scoring a run, bumping his career playoff average up to a ridiculous .400 with a 1.022 OPS. (One of his outs was a triple that was incorrectly ruled a 3-base error) His RBI single in the 9th inning sealed Anaheim’s fate.

Ellsbury has established himself as the catalyst that stirs Boston’s “Dirty Water”. Some players go entire careers without accomplishing a fraction of what Ellsbury has in the seven playoff games he’s started in. Like Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis, two similarly hard-nosed homegrown players who have come to personify the Epstein Regime, the bigger the moment, the brighter Ellsbury’s star shines.

And best of all? 10-year old New Yorkers everywhere went to bed last night asking their older brothers why the New York Yankees don’t have players like Jacoby Ellsbury.

Quick Predictions

Red Sox over Angels in 3
Rays over White Sox in 4

Dodgers over Cubs in 4
Phillies over Brewers in 4

Red Sox over Rays in 7
Dodgers over Phillies in 6

Red Sox over Dodgers in 4

MVP: Kevin Youkilis

Most Valuable Carlos?

Tom Glavine walked off the Shea Stadium mound for the final time last season losing more than just the New York Mets’ opportunity to make the 2007 postseason. Glavine’s abysmal performance (seven runs in one-third of an inning) effectively eliminated his third baseman David Wright from consideration for the NL MVP award as well. Shortstop Jimmy Rollins took home the award following his Philadelphia Phillies’ historic comeback. The Phils stormed back from seven games down with seventeen left to play, to become the NL East Champions on the final day of the season.

Rollins’ candidacy for MVP was substantiated on the notion that his value was so strong that he willed the Phillies past the Mets into the postseason whereas Wright was simply unable to do the same. Luckily for Rollins, his team’s soft-tossing left-handed starter, Jamie Moyer, outperformed Glavine on the final day of the season, throwing five and one-third innings while allowing just a single unearned run in a victory over Washington. Had Moyer and Glavine swapped pitching lines on September 30th, Wright would likely be the reigning NL MVP.

Wright was a greater player than Rollins in every meaningful aspect. He was penalized for no other reason than having teammates inferior to those of Rollins. A quick analysis of both players’ individual statistics proves how flawed this logic is:

-Wright posted a .325/.416/.546 line with 30 home runs and 107 runs batted in, while Rollins hit at a .296/.344/.531 clip with 30 home runs and 94 runs batted in. A 90 point difference in OPS is the difference between Derek Jeter and Marco Scuturo. Despite having 112 more at bats, Rollins had just 16 more hits. Wright would have simply had to produce Johan Santana-like offensive numbers over his next 112 at-bats to match Rollins’s hit total.

-In a sport without a clock, an out is the most valuable possession a team has. In 2007, Jimmy Rollins made more outs than any other player in baseball. Rollins’s .344 OBP was just 19 points higher than Wright’s batting average.

-Measuring by VORP, had both teams replaced their stars with league-average fill-ins at the same positions, the Mets would have suffered worse. Wright was second in the NL with an 81.1 VORP, while Rollins ranked 9th (66.1), one place below teammate Chase Utley. That’s right; the 2007 NL MVP was not even the most valuable player on his own team. If Rollins’s season held more value than Wright’s, it is certainly not evident in his production.

David Wright is the last person who should have been held accountable for the Mets collapse. Wright posted September slashes of .352/.432/.602, with 6 home runs and 20 RBI. Wright closed his monster September on a 17-game hit streak. He was held hitless just four times in the entire month. Wright carried the Mets into contention through the final game of the season; a game that ended as quickly as it started, through no fault of his own. He was robbed of the 2007 MVP Award.

Which brings us to 2008…

Somewhere along the line, the media has irresponsibly hopped aboard the “Carlos Delgado for MVP” bandwagon, feeding into the irrational frenzy that Mets fans are currently engaged in. If the Mets hold off the Phillies down the stretch, the clamoring for Delgado will only grow stronger.

Yes, this is the same Delgado who was among the worst players in baseball on July 4th. The fact that he salvaged his season enough to avoid being platooned, and even released, is an accomplishment in itself but it does not make him worthy of being the NL MVP.

Games in April mean as much in the standings as games in September. Delgado’s performance of late is only making up for the hole that he put the Mets in earlier in the year. Had Delgado been better than Jose Vidro during the first three months, the Mets would have had a better record than 42-44 on July 4th. As a result, they would have a greater cushion than the current half-game lead they hold over Philadelphia. Delgado’s July and September are only repaying his debts from April through June. If the requirements of becoming NL MVP are two great months, then Manny Ramirez is far more deserving of a candidate than Delgado.

Mets fans: Ask yourselves about your own team before even acknowledging the actual National League MVP. If you lost one of the following five players for the remainder of the season, who would be the most difficult to replace: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, or Carlos Delgado? You’d have to be insane to consider Delgado, even intuitively. By every value based measure: VORP, Runs Created, Win Shares, etc., Carlos Delgado ranks last. As stated by Max Kellerman of 1050 ESPN Radio, Delgado is not even the MVC—Most Valuable Carlos, as his production is not nearly as meaningful as that of a center fielder who provides value on both sides of the field.

So who deserves the NL MVP? Simple. The best player in the National League: Albert Pujols—and it’s not even close. Pujols is having a monster season that is going unrecognized because of the regularity in which he puts up his numbers. He is so dominant that it just isn’t fun to vote for him. He has outperformed his peers in every aspect and deserves to be rewarded for it. It is not Pujols’s fault that his teammates are not as good as Santana, Reyes, and Wright. If anything, that shows how valuable he really is. Trade Pujols for Delgado and which team becomes better? He should not miss out on the MVP because the other 24 St. Louis Cardinals are not as good as the New York Mets.

The MVP is an individual award. It is not a team award. The playoffs are the team award. Arguing for Delgado is arguing the semantics of the word “valuable”. And turning the MVP award into a semantics argument takes away from the true intention of the trophy. Only the voters have a chance to right this wrong. To do so, they must name the most deserving player in the National League, Albert Pujols, the 2008 NL MVP.


My Ballot (AVG/OBP/SLG, HR-RBI):
10. Lance Berkman, HOU: .322/.426/.586, 28-100
9. Manny Ramirez, LAD: .401/.481/.745, 14-44
8. Carlos Beltran, NYM: .280/.371/.490, 24-103
7. Jose Reyes. NYM: .298/.359/.474, 14-59
6. Chase Utley, PHI: .289/.377/.533, 31-95
5. Geovanny Soto, CHC, .285/.363/.502, 22-83
4. Ryan Braun, MIL, .290/.336/.562, 35-97
3. Johan Santana, NYM: 210 IP, 13-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 179 K
2. David Wright, NYM: .298/.386/.534, 31-114
1. Albert Pujols, STL: .357/.461/.645, 33-101

Captain Crutch?

NOTE: I had been contemplating writing about Jason Varitek’s place with the Red Sox for some time now, but his controversial All-Star selection sped up the process for me...


Multiyear contracts for 30+ year old catchers have not been kind to teams throughout history. The list of productive catchers, 35 & older, begins and ends with Carlton Fisk--though Jorge Posada is making a valiant effort to join him. In 2004, the Boston Red Sox signed their then-32 year-old catcher, Jason Varitek, to a 4-year $40 million contract two months after winning their first World Series in 86 years. Varitek was named the captain of the team, only the third Red Sox player to receive the honor since 1923.

The decision to sign Varitek was not as automatic as one might think. To that point, the Epstein regime had been especially opposed to signing aging stars to multiyear contracts regardless of their organizational ties—-especially catchers who are known to have shorter shelf-lives than any other position. The idea being that teams should be paying players for future performance rather than past performance. It's the mindset that sent Cliff Floyd, Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon, and Derek Lowe looking for work elsewhere at various points throughout Epstein's tenure. But with minimal catching options elsewhere, (rumors of a trade for Brian Schneider surfaced for a while), the Sox were willing to give in to Varitek and agent Scott Boras’s demands.

"It's not every day you're lucky enough to sign a player who embodies everything you want your franchise to be," general manager Theo Epstein said. "When you have that player, you don't let him get away."

Varitek responded with an excellent 2005 season, posting a .281/.366/.489 line in 133 games. The contract was justified for one season, at least. However, as Mets and Yankees fans have witnessed with Pedro Martinez and Johnny Damon, the decline period usually doesn’t surface in year one. It is the later years of the deals where they begin to look bad.

Unfortunately for the Red Sox, Varitek’s decline began even sooner than they had hoped. His injury-plagued 2006 season resembled that of a 34 year old catcher, batting .238/.325/.400. To his credit, the Red Sox’ collapse from contention,just as it did in 2001, coincided with Varitek’s knee injury in August. Varitek bounced back slightly in 2007, recording a respectable .255/.367/.421 season, good for a 103 OPS+. The Red Sox won the World Series for the second time, sweeping the Colorado Rockies. Varitek’s performance behind the plate overshadowed anything he did at the plate.

Now, at age 36 and in the final year of his deal, Varitek is having the worst statistical season of his career. Mired in a 14 for 99 (.141) slump, Varitek is posting splits of .220/.300/.360—numbers that fans once expected from Doug Mirabelli. Oddly enough, he was selected by his peers to represent the American League in the All-Star game for the third time—this in spite of his -2.3 value over replacement player (VORP).

VORP measures the number of runs a player contributes beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if he were given the same percentage of a team’s plate appearances. In other words, Varitek’s VORP is the number of runs that he improves the Red Sox offense by, by having him in the lineup instead of an easily attainable replacement-level catcher. In other words part 2, by carrying a negative VORP, you can take just about any available catcher, plug him into Varitek’s place in the Red Sox lineup, and they instantly become a better offensive team.

So where is Varitek’s true value? In some cases, it’s in aspects of the game that can’t be quantified. In other cases, you can quantify it, but to an uncertain degree. This is a very tricky game for front-offices to play: how much credence do you put into intangibles?

For example, in 2001 and 2006, the team ERA and opposing OPS rose considerably when Varitek got injured and catchers like Scott Hatteberg, Doug Mirabelli, and Javy Lopez were calling the shots. Is this a representation of game-calling ability or is it luck? As a Red Sox fan, my gut tells me that it is indicative of Varitek’s talents, but objectively it could be coincidental. There's really no way of knowing.

As an outsider, it’s hard to judge how great of a game-caller Varitek is but the reviews from his peers say a lot. (EDIT: Yes, these are the same peers who were responsible for some outlandish All-Star selections--Varitek included--so maybe their opinions should be taken lightly) Varitek has caught great pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Josh Beckett, who have each raved about Varitek’s preparation and mental fortitude in holding down the pitching staff. Veterans like Hideo Nomo, Bret Saberhagen, Pat Rapp, and David Cone, who bounced around at the end of their careers, each experienced solid post-prime seasons with Varitek at the helm. Young starters for Boston have also found success while working with Varitek. Recently, compare the early results of Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Justin Masterson in a hitter’s ballpark to those of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, two prospects who were generally regarded more highly than Boston's. Would the results be different if the catchers were swapped? I think it's fair to believe that.

One intangible that I don’t buy into, is that his presence has an effect on team chemistry. Unlike basketball and football, where teamwork is so prevelant that chemistry issues constantly surface, baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. You don’t win baseball games because you have good chemistry. You appear to have good chemistry because you are winning games. The baseball media always perpetuates erroneous beliefs regarding causation and correlation. It’s similar to the fallacy you always hear about Jose Reyes and the New York Mets. “The Mets are a winning team when Jose Reyes is having fun and smiling.” No, that’s not true at all. Jose Reyes is having fun and smiling because the Mets are winning—not the other way around.

So are Varitek’s intangibles overrated? Could another catcher step in and handle the staff as well as he has? Possibly, but without being able to know for sure, and without there being a plethora of alternatives, is replacing Varitek at the end of the season a risk worth taking? I don’t think that it is. Russell Martins and Joe Mauers don’t grow on trees, so there aren't many significant improvements out there. I’d feel much more comfortable with Varitek and his relationship with the staff behind the plate than I would feel if the Sox were to hand the reins over to some unknown commodity in search of 40 points of OPS.

However, the Red Sox can not allow Varitek and his captaincy to become an albatross for the team offensively. If the Red Sox are to resign him—and as long as there aren’t any maniacal offers to match, I think they should (2 years is about where I’d max out...the $ value means little to me since the Red Sox have the money)—they can no longer treat him as an above average offensive player. They must recognize that he is now your ordinary defensive-oriented catcher with some occasional pop.

He should bat 8th or 9th at all times and he should rarely get a 4th at-bat in a game that the Red Sox are trailing. His bat speed is far too slow to catch up with late-inning fireballers. Pinch-hit for him, pinch-run for him, and give him extra days off during the season, along with the mandatory Wakefield rest. If it’s agreed that Varitek’s importance behind the plate is where his true value comes from, then he should not be insulted if and when Francona sends up a better hitter (Sean Casey, Brandon Moss, Alex Cora) in a big spot. Better yet, as the captain, he should be fully supportive, seeing as each of the aforementioned moves would be in the team’s best interest.

Is Pretty Boy Floyd Gone For Good?

Well, as you probably know, the best pound for pound fighter in the world today, Floyd Mayweather has officially announced his retirement from boxing. Mayweather's announcement came as a bit of a surprise given that he is currently in the prime of his career and the height of his drawing power. The announcement officially squashes any chance of the September 20th De La Hoya-Mayweather rematch that many would have watched but few would have cared about.

So is he done? Boxers always seem to have trouble staying away from the ring, so the odds are probably in favor of Mayweather lacing up the gloves once again--especially for a guy with the propensity to spend money the way he does. It would be a shame if he doesn't, given the entertainment that Money Mayweather brings to the sport. A fighter with Mayweather's blend of skills and instincts comes along once every few generations. He's also one of the few transcendent personalites boxing has left and losing him will be a devestating blow to the interest of the common fan. And from a selfish standpoint, no Mayweather means no Floyd Mayweather-Miguel Cotto megafight. (Or even a lesser fight against some other established welterweight like Antonio Margarito, Shane Moseley, or Paul Williams)

On the Kellerman and Kenny radio show today (10-1, 1050ESPN, best sports talk radio show in NYC), Max Kellerman concocted a pretty interesting theory regarding Mayweather's retirement:

According to Kellerman, most of Mayweather's persona depends on his brand being a massive draw, almost like how a Mercedes Benz is special because it is a Mercedes Benz. As long as people continue to think of Mayweather as a huge draw, the more he ends up being a huge draw. His first fight with De la Hoya set records; it reached 2.4 million households and generated around $120 million. Floyd earned $25 million from it. However, it wasn't a particularly exciting fight. Fans weren't really clamoring for a rematch. It would have been practically impossible for Mayweather-De La Hoya II to match what the first fight did, numbers-wise.

Now if the rematch happened, and it paled in comparison to the profitably of the first fight, or even worse if he were to somehow lose, Mayweather's brand takes a HUGE hit. It makes him look less important to the public, or less interesting. As a result, Mayweather calls off the fight via this psuedo-retirement and takes 12-18 months off in hopes of building anticipation for a bigger fight that fans are actually interested in.

In the meantime, Miguel Cotto will face Antonio Margarito on July 26th. Assuming Cotto is victorious, he enhances his draw power to make himself a worthy contender for De la Hoya. If he beats De la Hoya, he officially becomes a mega-star and the demand for a fight vs. Mayweather soars through the roof. At that point, Mayweather will demand a huuuuuuuuuge purse and come back to fight Cotto in what will be one of the biggest fights in boxing history. And if Cotto were to lose at any point along the way, then Mayweather can say that Cotto was never deserving of a fight anyway, a convenient excuse given the public perception that Mayweather is ducking Cotto.


Does it make sense? I really think so. Or at the very least, it made sense when Kellerman said it, so if I butchered it, it's my fault.

Schilling and Dice-K have some company...

Looks like David Ortiz is going to miss at least a month with tendon sheath damage in his left wrist. My first reaction was that this sounds strikingly similar to Nomar Garciaparra's 2001 injury, which effectively ended his career as an elite hitter.


My gut feeling is that after unsuccessfully trying to let it heal through rehabilitation, Ortiz has the surgery and misses the rest of the season (and postseason). Wrist injuries are the worst, as there's really no telling if a player will ever be the same afterwards. Nomar never returned to form; Derrek Lee is only starting to hit for power again, two years after his wrist injury.


Which then begs the biggest question for the rest of the 2008 season, a season in which the Red Sox are still a championship contender in spite of injuries to countless superstars--Are there any lefthanded, power bats that the Red Sox could acquire cheaply who could slide into the DH/3 hole and produce elite numbers? You know something? I actually think there might be somebody....

So Billy Beane and I made the same mistake...

...and didn't trade Rich Harden after getting two great starts out of him to start the season. Harden has been placed on the DL, in one of baseball's annual traditions. As for my fantasy team, I'll replace Harden with Randy Johnson, who is returning from his stint on the DL, Monday against San Francisco. Beane, unfortunately, is in a little more trouble.

Season Preview, Part VI

8) Seattle Mariners, 88–74, (1st place in AL West)

The winner of the American League’s weakest division will be the Seattle Mariners. I will admit that I don’t particularly like Seattle as presently constructed—I just feel like the Angels are very susceptible to a down season in 2008.

Last year, the Mariners outperformed their Pythagorean Record by a large enough margin that the acquisition of Eric Bedard will likely just allow them to sustain their 2007 improvement. The leap to division champions comes on the shoulders of Felix Hernandez. King Felix has been around for so long that it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 21 years old. He’s two years younger than Clay Buchholz and Tim Lincecum and the same age as Phil Hughes, yet with 400+ innings of MLB experience under his belt. 2008 will be King Felix’s breakout season. Last year he posted a 3.92 ERA, despite allowing an extremely unlucky .338 batting average on balls in play. (.300 is average for a pitcher) Assuming a natural regression to the mean in BABIP, along with progression as a pitcher growing into his stuff, 2008 will result in a monster season for Hernandez, my pick for AL Cy Young

Seattle’s lineup is extremely weak. Ichiro is the only premier bat, but as a slap singles hitter, he isn’t likely to kill you the way that other superstars can. Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez aren’t terrible, but they’d look much better surrounded by an all-star masher. Instead, they are surrounded by Jose Vidro and his 6 home runs as the everyday designated hitter. Man, if only they were able to acquire a designated hitter who could hit 25 home runs, and bat at a .280/.450/.550 clip. I know hitters like that don’t grow on trees, especially ones who enjoy playing on the west coast. And could you imagine the number of prospects you’d have to give up to get a guy like that? Those are practically Albert Pujols-like numbers. Wait, you mean there is somebody available like that? Barry Bonds is still a free agent? And the Seattle Mariners are content with sticking with Jose Vidro at DH? Seriously?

Introducing your 4 divisional series losers….


7) Los Angeles Dodgers, 88–74, (2nd place in NL West, NL Wild Card)

There’s something humorous to me about Joe Torre replacing Grady Little as the Los Angeles Dodgers’ skipper. If Torre didn’t embarrass Little enough in 2003, he certainly finished the job this offseason. The Dodgers began negotiating with Torre while Little still held the position. Little, realizing for the first time in his career that it was time to pull the plug, felt threatened by Torre and chose to resign. If only John Henry and Larry Lucchino had thought to recruit Torre during the 8th inning of the ALCS, baseball history would have been written a lot differently…

Bitterness aside, the Dodgers are better suited with Torre at the helm—considering that they are a playoff contender and all. The one person who’d disagree is Scott Proctor, a reliever reunited with the manager that pitched him over 200 innings in roughly two seasons in New York. Torre’s arrival in Los Angeles is Proctor’s right arm’s worst nightmare. Torre is certainly a change of pace from Little, who might not be aware that relief pitchers actually exist.

Torre might not have to summon Proctor as often as he did in New York, however, because the Dodgers boast the NL’s strongest starting rotation. Brad Penny has established himself as one of the NL’s premier pitchers. Looks like Paul DePodesta knew what he was doing after all. Another widely criticized DePodesta acquisition, Derek Lowe, has revived his career in LA, throwing three straight seasons of sub-4.00 ERA ball. Joining Lowe and Penny is veteran Japanese pitcher, Hiroki Kuroka, a 33 year old right hander who will provide the Dodgers with a season better than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s first year with Boston. If Chad Billingsley makes “The Jump” that management expects, the Dodgers will throw out a front four as good as anyone in the National League. A staff as good as LA’s will be enough for Joe Torre’s consecutive playoff streak, unlike his former team, to continue in 2008.

6) Milwaukee Brewers, 89–73, (1st place in NL Central)

Lost in the media’s love affair with the Chicago Cubs is the best team in the NL Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. In 2007, the Brewers took great strides towards becoming a National League contender, posting an 83-79 record, an eight game improvement on their 2006 total. As a young and improving team, it’s reasonable to expect similar progression in 2008 for the Brew Crew.

First and foremost, the Brewers need a healthy season out of Ben Sheets. Sheets is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers, the all-time leader in BB/9 for pitchers with a K/9 over 7 and he is 4th all-time in K/BB ratio. However, health is always an issue for Sheets. He hasn’t thrown 200+ innings since 2004 making it tough for Milwaukee to rely on his production. Luckily, Milwaukee finally has some help in the rotation. Yovani Gallardo pitched brilliantly after being called up last season. Gallardo is one of the NL’s brightest young pitchers. Joining them this season is rookie LHP Manny Parra. Parra is a 2001 draft pick whose road to Milwaukee was derailed by injuries. He reestablished himself as a top prospect with a brilliant 2007 season at AA and AAA. After a strong spring training, the Brewers believe Parra is ready to be an integral part of their staff. Jeff Suppan can be expected to provide 200+ league average innings.

Is there a better collection of homegrown talent in baseball than Milwaukee’s? Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Bill Hall make up the only 100% homegrown infield that I can think of. Corey Hart and 2007 Rookie of the Year, Ryan Braun, manage the corners, bringing the total to six out of the eight everyday players coming from within. With all of this young talent blossoming at the major league level, as you can imagine, there isn’t much left from a positional standpoint. 2007 1st round pick OF Matt LaPorta, a player the Red Sox drafted in 2006 but couldn’t reach terms with, is the last premier positional prospect remaining. He is the classic all-bat, no-glove player but, man, he can rake. In just 115 at-bats after being drafted, LaPorta smashed 12 home runs. At 22 years old, LaPorta will not need much more seasoning at the minor league level. If the Brewers feel Corey Hart can play center field, LaPorta will end up in one of the corners (probably by 2009). Either that, or Bud Selig will find a way to switch the Brewers into the American League so that LaPorta and Fielder can share 1B/DH duties.

Season Preview Part V

12) Toronto Blue Jays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)

The longer it takes to finish this preview, the more and more likely I’ll second guess my placement of the Toronto Blue Jays. After three very competitive games with the Yankees, the Blue Jays completed a sleep of the defending World Champions earlier today, proving that they belong in the discussion with the AL’s megapowers. The Blue Jays have won between 83 and 88 games each season for the past ten seasons. Stuck in the highly competitive AL East, the Blue Jays have the most victories of any team who has failed to make the playoffs during the Wild Card era. If Bud Selig chooses to implement my aforementioned “Swap a team to the NL” rule change, the Blue Jays would be a perennial NL powerhouse.

In 2008, the Blue Jays have their best all-around team to date. When healthy, their pitching staff, top to bottom, is the league’s best. Staff ace Roy Halladay is arguably the American League’s best starter. Halladay is a throwback to days when the starting pitcher’s objective was to finish the game that he started. Halladay’s is a refreshing act, one that is nearing extinction given today’s era of 6 IP, 3 ER quality starts. Following Halladay is uber-talented righthander A.J. Burnett, a serious breakout candidate given his contractual status. Burnett has an opt-out clause in his deal and he and his agent have indicated that if he pitches well this season, he will execute his right to opt-out and play the open market. When was the last time Burnett made all of his starts in one season, you ask? His last contract season, the year before signing with Toronto. 2008 has career year written all over it. Rounding out the rotation is a trio of high-upside righthanders in Dustin McGowan (the best of the bunch and future Cy Young candidate), Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch, each of whom came on strong towards the end of 2007. Neither the Red Sox, nor the Yankees can feel as comfortable with the back end of their rotation as Toronto does.

The Blue Jays will have no problems scoring either. Vernon Wells is fully recovered from a shoulder injury that zapped away all of his power in 2007. Feeling healthy once again, Wells is poised for a strong bounce back campaign. Alex Rios is an emerging superstar, perhaps the best right fielder in the American League. And if “The Big Hurt”, Frank Thomas can continue swinging his imposing bat (RE: Manny Delcarmen), as he has in the early going, the Jays will pose a very deep lineup that wears down weak opposing pitching staffs.

On the other side of the diamond, the addition of Scott Rolen, (who’s currently on the DL with a broken finger), bolsters an already solid defense. When Rolen finally joins second baseman Aaron Hill (who Peter Gammons declared the best all-around 2B in the AL East) and first baseman Lyle Overbay, and John McDonald is at shortstop, the Blue Jays could have the best defensive infield as well.

So, the question remains… Why third place? I wish I had a better answer. The Blue Jays would probably win half of the other divisions in baseball. Trapped in the AL East, they just need too much to go right for them to be left standing come October. This Blue Jays squad can win 90+ games, but more than likely they’ll endure another strong, but playoff-less season, whose reward will be playing spoiler to the Wild Card hopes of the AL East’s second=place team.


11) Tampa Bay Rays, 85–77, (T-3rd place in AL East)

The Tampa Bay Rays managed to get rid of the most negativity of any team, this offseason. After officially dropping the “Devil” from their team name, the Rays sent troubled outfielder Elijah Dukes to our city’s capital and the disgruntled Delmon Young to the North Star State. The symbolism was evident. These are not your father’s older brother’s Rays.

BaseballProspectus.com’s famous PECOTA forecasting system is predicting 88 wins. While 88 might be a reach, the Rays enter 2008 with a strong chance to post their first winning season in franchise history. At the very least, the Rays will play a huge role in determining the AL East champions. If the Yankees are the Republicans and the Red Sox are the Democrats, the Rays are an Independent party looking to steal votes. The team they steal the most votes from is likely to lose the divisional race, and possibly the wild card as well.

The future is even brighter than the 2008 outlook. The organization is already looking ahead in that regard. Case in point: their decision to start Evan Longoria in AAA in an effort to delay his arbitration/free angency eligibility.
In 2010, the Rays could post the following lineup:
CF Desmond Jennings
LF Carl Crawford
1B Carlos Pena
RF B.J. Upton
3B Evan Longoria
SS Reid Brignac
DH Rocco Baldelli (wouldn’t count on it, but let’s not forget how young he is)
C Dioner Navarro
2B Akinori Iwamura (or Brignac at 2B with 2008’s 1st overall pick at SS)

With this rotation:
Scott Kazmir
David Price
James Shields
Matt Garza
Whoever pans out of Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann, and Jacob McGee

Davis has the best chance of the trio to be a high-quality starter. Niemann would profile well as a reliever, given his size and his injury history. McGee is a lefty with mid to high 90’s heat. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Even if all three fail to pan out, the Rays still have young pitchers like Edwin Jackson and Andrew Sonnanstine to round out the rotation. (Both guys pitched well down the '07 stretch) Still not the worst of options for a #5 starter.

Keeping in mind how unpredictable young players are, there has arguably never been a collection of talent as good as Tampa’s coming together at the exact same time. Most of the talent was assembled through high draft picks thanks in part to the team’s ineptitude. But proper decision making is just as vital, if not more so, when drafting that high. Keep in mind, Pittsburgh has been just as bad for just as long, with much less to show for. The thought seems crazy, but playoff baseball in Tampa Bay is not far away. (To speed up the process, I wonder if Andrew Friedman would vote in my idea to switch to the National League!)

10) New York Yankees, 89-73, (2nd place in AL East)

A few years ago, Major League Baseball implemented an unbalanced schedule to capitalize on the growing interest in divisional rivalries. Divisional adversaries now played 18 or 19 games against each other. The Red Sox and Yankees benefited immensely. After pocketing the huge gates from their 19 wars with each other, both teams were rewarded with 38 games against the floundering Orioles and the atrocious Devil Rays, who have been amongst the league’s worst teams since their inception. However, in light of Toronto and Tampa’s significant improvement, the fun ends this season. The AL East runner-up is no longer guaranteed a playoff spot and as such, the Yankees come into 2008 with a possibility of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

The Yankees enter 2008 in a quasi-rebuilding phase, eerily similar to the 2005 Red Sox, albeit not as defending champions. While much has been made of the Joba Chamberlain/Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy trio (CHK) and their symbolism of the Yankee paradigm shift towards youth, the Yankees remain an expensive team (baseball’s only $200 million team) with old parts. Melky Cabrera and Robinson Cano are the only regulars under 32 years old. Considering a baseball player’s prime generally exists between ages 27 and 31, it’s possible that the Yankees’ best players’ best seasons are behind them, yet players like Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Hideki Matsui are still being paid like superstars. The presence of their contracts has left the Yankees pot-committed, forcing them to scramble to contend as these former stars exit their primes. It also alters management’s decision making in the short term. For example, the extra years tacked on to the contracts of Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera this offseason were irrational long-term and likely to be regretted, but they were completely necessary for the Yankees chances to compete in 2008.

But luckily, the end of the madness is in sight. The Yankees have more than $80 million coming off of their payroll in 2008 followed by another $30 million in 2009. The Cold War with Boston appears to have died down (though it’s now likely to spill over into the amateur draft), signaling a birth of a new era for both teams. Brian Cashman has finally been given the authority to build from within. A system that was barren just two seasons ago now ranks amongst the league’s best.

Joining the CHK trio is 2007 first round pick Andrew Brackman, a 6’10’’ right hander from NC State, so potentially dominant that the Yankees drafted and signed him to a major league contract despite knowing that he needed Tommy John surgery. If healthy, Brackman could be the best of the bunch. On the opposite side of the field, the Yankees boast two future all star outfielders, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. Jackson could be Bobby Abreu’s replacement in right field as the Yankees move into their new stadium in 2009.

Highlighted by two phenomenal young superstars on the left side of the infield, the New York media perpetuates a misconception that the Mets are in better shape for the future than the Yankees. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Taking nothing away from David Wright (the best player in the NL) and Jose Reyes, but even with the discrepancy in age, neither player has ever had a better season than their Bronx counterpart. Fernando Martinez is the only Mets prospect who would crack the Yankees’ top-10, and even still, he’d fall behind Jackson and Tabata on the depth chart. And forget Chamberlain or Hughes, the Mets don’t have one starting pitcher in Kennedy’s class either.

The Yankees will be better than 5th best in the AL and 9th best in baseball. The best team in New York will likely have the second most wins in New York. In the NL East, the Yankees win the division by five games. However, young pitchers struggle with the quality of lineups in the AL and the Yankees do not have strong enough middle relief to compensate for nights when Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t have it. (For Kennedy, it will be much more often than Yankee fans had hoped. He has NL Central starter written all over him.) It also places inordinate pressure on Chien Ming Wang, an excellent pitcher who is unfairly overslotted as an ace in this staff, and Andy Pettitte to pitch deep into games during every start.

But the lineup will still score runs. Alex Rodriguez remains the game’s best hitter (maybe history’s?), Jeter is Jeter, and my MVP runner up pick, Bobby Abreu is in the best shape of his life, poised for a monster season, as he looks for one last huge contract. Will the offense be enough to push New York to the playoffs? It was last year, but the AL has improved immensely once again. This year, I think the Yankees miss the postseason by a hair. However, as the emergent developmental monster lurks towards the forefront, 2008 might be baseball’s final chance to witness an October without the Evil Empire for quite some time.

12) Los Angeles Angels, 90-72, (2nd place in AL West, AL Wild Card)

One of the worst aspects of laziness is that clicking “save as” can be too much work for me. Unsurprisingly, I lost my lengthy entry on the Angels when my brother closed out my Word document without saving it. As a result, I’ve been too demoralized to try recapturing my prior brilliance (explanation for my hiatus) so I will simply leave you with some bulletpoints to get a sense of where I was heading with the Angels preview.

---Predicting the Angels and Mariners to flip-flop from their place in the 2007 standings isn’t as exciting of an upset pick as, say, predicting San Diego over UConn in a March Madness office pool, but it’s a start. In March Madness, you’ll pick an upset because you’re familiar with a good team who seems susceptible to one, not because you are in love with the 13-seed’s chances. If anybody seems susceptible to falling off, it’s the veteran-laden Angels.

---Calling them the Los Angeles Angels is annoying and confusing.

---Which aging free agent center fielders will the Los Angeles teams overpay for this offseason? 2006 brought in Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre; 2007 brought Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter. Who will it be in 2008? Rocco Baldelli? Mike Cameron? A return of Jim Edmonds? Tune in and find out!

---Every time the Red Sox win a World Series, they sweep the Angels in the ALDS. A playoff without the Angels could be an ominous sign for Boston’s chances. The opposite could be said for New York’s chances.

2008 Individual Award Predictions

I was planning on posting these at the end of the preview, but the preview is taking much longer than I expected so I want to put these on record before everyone starts thinking I'm letting the early games influence my picks. Leave your picks in the comments section!

AL MVP:
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Bobby Abreu
3. Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP:
1. David Wright
2. Prince Fielder
3. Chase Utley

AL Cy Young:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka

NL Cy Young:
1. Johan Santana
2. Jake Peavy
3. Cole Hamels

AL Rookie of the Year:
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Evan Longoria
3. Clay Buchholz

NL Rookie of the Year:
1. Johnny Cueto
2. Jay Bruce
3. Hiroki Kiroda

AL Manager of the Year:
Joe Maddon

NL Manager of the Year:
Ned Yost

Season Preview, Part IV

Part IV will be slightly smaller than usual, as I am choosing to break the remaining non-playoff teams into two parts. Part V will be the remaining non-playoff teams and Parts VI and VII will be the playoff teams.

15) Philadelphia Phillies, 85-77, (3rd place in NL East)

So Jimmy Rollins wasn’t crazy after all. After declaring the Philadelphia Phillies “the NL East’s team to beat” last year during spring training, Rollins led the Phillies on a historic September run, coming back from seven games out with 17 to play, to storm past the New York Mets and capture the division title. As a result, Rollins was rewarded with a controversial NL MVP (the award belonged to David Wright or Matt Holliday), along with his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award. An even greater performance from Rollins will be necessary in 2008 if the Phillies wish to reach the postseason again.

Last year’s magical run has skewed opinions on this year’s team. Their lineup is still elite. ¾ of their infield are homegrown MVP candidates. The game’s best second baseman, Chase Utley could become Philadelphia’s third straight MVP. (Ryan Howard in 2006, Rollins in 2007)

But discussion of Philadelphia’s lineup, swagger, and clutch ability has taken the focus off of their severe lack of pitching depth. After a spectacular 2007 season, Cy Young candidate Cole Hamels is the only reliable starting pitcher—and that’s assuming he stays healthy. Former ace, Brett Myers is making a return to the rotation after a brief stint as closer last year. There’s no telling if he’ll be able to return to a 200+ IP workload effectively. And the question marks run deeper than Myers. Can Kyle Kendrick and his abysmal 3.7 K/9 rate sustain his performance without striking anybody out? Baseball history says otherwise. Jamie Moyer has gotten a year older. While he won 14 games last season, his ERA was over 5.00. Ironically, if Adam Eaton pitches as “well” as Moyer did last year, he will have knocked a full run off his 2007 6.29 ERA.

The bullpen has just as many questions. Many pundits feel newly acquired closer Brad Lidge has not been the same pitcher since giving up a game-winning home run to Albert Pujols in the 2005 NLCS. Lidge will be starting the season on the DL, but when he returns, it will be interesting to see how he reacts to his first blown save. The Phillies are also missing a shutdown setup man to bridge the gap the Lidge. With starting pitchers who aren’t likely to throw deep into games, the Phillies are likely to lose many ballgames in the later innings. Now taking their torrid September out of the equation, is this a team that you’d trust matching up against improved Atlanta and New York teams? Me neither.


14) Colorado Rockies, 85-77, (3rd Place in NL West)

If the Philadelphia Phillies’ had a torrid September, the Colorado Rockies’ September can only be defined by whatever combination of torrid, scorching, sweltering, and any other word that defines hot you can think of. The Colorado Rockies won 13 of their final 14 regular season games to pull into a tie with the San Diego Padres for the Wild Card. The Rockies followed that up by defeating San Diego in a one-game playoff and sweeping Philadelphia and Arizona in the playoffs, en route to becoming the 2008 National League Champions. The clock didn’t strike twelve for Colorado until Josh Beckett took the mound at Fenway Park and pitched the Red Sox to the first of four straight World Series victories.

In what’s becoming a common theme, teams that finished the season strongly, or needed a borderline miracle run to make the playoffs, end up overrated the following season because fans expect them to build on the previous season’s performance. Instead, they are more likely to regress, as a full season’s worth of games is more indicative of a team’s true ability than one hot stretch at the end of a season. There’s an old saying: “You’re never as bad as your worst game and you’re never as good as your best game.” This holds true with Colorado and Philadelphia. If Trevor Hoffman never blew that horrendous save against Milwaukee at the end of the season, Colorado would have never made the playoffs, and their 2008 outlook would not be as positive. If the Mets hadn’t completely collapsed down the stretch, the same would be said for the Phillies. Look for both teams to endure similar fates in 2008.


13) Atlanta Braves, 86–76, (2nd Place in NL East)

Flipping through the New York Post and reading the daily bickering between superstars like Jimmy Rollins and Carlos Beltran, you would think the NL East was a two team division. And while nobody would blame you for forgetting about the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals, there’s a team in Atlanta that is undeservedly flying under the radar in the NL East divisional race. The Braves are relishing being overlooked. For too long, the expectations of a deep October run took its toll on Bobby Cox’s club. Most fans view those Braves as failures, despite their run of consecutive divisional titles, for being a team who didn’t capitalize in the big moment except once, winning the World Series in 1995—to some extent, baseball’s Buffalo Bills. But armed with arguably the best lineup in the National League, the Braves are bracing themselves for a serious run at contention in 2008, albeit with a different style than they used during their 90’s reign.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a lineup in the National League better than Atlanta’s. Chipper Jones is still slugging away in the middle of the order, coming off a season in which he tallied the second highest OPS of his illustrious career. Chipper misses his share of games each season, but his production has shown no sign of slowing down. The Braves will also receive a full season of switch-hitting first baseman Mark Teixeira. Jones and Teixeira could give the Braves the best middle of the order, switch-hitting duo in MLB history. SS Yunel Escobar and RF Jeff Francoeur are primed to join the elite at their respective positions while Brian McCann already provides top of the line production behind the plate. Besides the pitcher’s spot in the order, there is no easy out in Atlanta’s lineup.

The Braves have been the media’s sexy upset pick in 2008. ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark, along with Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, are each predicting the Braves to appear in their first World Series since 1999. Gammons and Rosenthal have the Braves losing to the Indians in the World Series while Stark has them victorious over the Detroit Tigers. My hesitation in picking them for the playoffs lies within their pitching staff, ironically the one aspect of their team that had been most dependable throughout the last decade.


12) Chicago Cubs, 87-75, (2nd place in NL Central)

One of my least favorite aspects of the start of a new season is the annual “Chicago Cubs to win World Series” column. Every year, a handful of writers hop aboard the Cubbies’ bandwagon for reasons ranging from “their fans deserve it” to “it would be good for the sport to see them win”. Rarely, if ever, does their reasoning involve baseball. This year, only two of ESPN.com’s nineteen experts picked the Cubs to win the World Series, which appears slightly less than usual. But after adding in the fact that 17 of the 19 picked the Cubs to win the NL Central, the media’s “wishful thinking” quotient is right in line with its normal rate.

The Cubs' big addition this offseason was Japanese OF Kosuke Fukodome. Fukodome has been described as a Bobby Abreu-type. He brings a solid left-handed bat and a very good eye to an overly right-handed team that swings at everything. Ideally, Fukodome should bat 1st or 2nd, in front of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano. However, Soriano's stubborn insistence to bat leadoff will ultimately leave Fukodome batting lower in the order, getting on base for guys who can’t knock him in.

It isn’t that the 2008 Cubs are a bad team. They’re likely to be finish as one of the top five or six teams in the entire National League. It’s just that the media’s growing love affair with them every season is not only absurd, it is borderline gimmicky—and gimmicks grow old quickly. Just because the Red Sox and White Sox recently extinguished lengthy championship droughts does not mean that the Cubs are suddenly entitled to as well. For those who feel like I do, fear not: It won’t happen this season either.

Season Preview, Part III

20) Texas Rangers, 75 – 87, (3rd place in AL West)

Whenever I make season predictions, there’s always a random team who sneaks up the chart farther than I expected. This year it’s the Texas Rangers. It’s not that they have gotten particularly better. It’s just that other teams (Oakland, Minnesota, etc.) have regressed a little more.

Last season, the Rangers made a decision to replenish the farm system, trading All-Star 1st baseman Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for the Braves’ three best prospects. (C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus, and SP Matt Harrison) Saltalamacchia was the game’s best catching prospect before Matt Weiters got drafted. Andrus is a talented 19-year old shortstop of the ‘Jose Reyes’ mold, who scouts have been raving about since Atlanta signed him as a 16-year old. Harrison is a 22-year old lefthander who has had solid minor league statistics at every point along the way. Although management was slammed for the trade, the deal made a lot of sense for the Rangers. Management had finally committed to righting the ship. Their alternative would have been signing Teixeira to a big money, long-term extension. If they had chosen to go that route, the Rangers would have languished in 70-winville with no signs of getting out anytime soon. Now, they at least have a sense of direction.

The Rangers followed the Teixeira trade with two clever deadline deals. One deal sent Kenny Lofton to the Indians for C Max Ramirez. The other sent Eric Gagne to Boston for three solid prospects, Kason Gabbard, David Murphy, and Engel Beltre. Gabbard and Murphy are already capable of contributing in the majors and the 18-year old, Beltre is a high-upside five-tool prospect out of the Dominican Republic who has been compared to everyone from Barry Bonds to Alfonso Soriano.

>>Tangent- In those trades, the Rangers pulled off one of my favorite, but underutilized low-market team trade tactics: Signing veterans to low-money, one-year deals, in seasons where you are not going to compete, and trading them to contenders at the trade deadline. Every season, contenders are looking for an extra arm or bat down the stretch. Operating like this is a very low risk technique to replenish your farm system and I don’t understand why more teams refuse to take advantage of it. End Tangent.<<

The Rangers will continue looking towards the future in 2008. If somebody is willing to take Michael Young’s contract, they’ll explore it—-same goes for Hank Blalock. In the offseason, they acquired OF Josh Hamilton for a highly touted pitching prospect, Edinson Volquez. By now everyone knows Hamilton’s story. Hamilton’s talent is limitless. He has the rare type of ability where if he stays of the field, anything is possible. In 2007, he was baseball’s feel-good story. In 2008, he’s back to being a baseball player; the middle of the order bat that will lead the new era of Rangers into the future.

19) Chicago White Sox, 81 – 81, (3rd place in AL Central)

Nothing screams ‘bland team’ more than an 81-81 prediction. From a forecasting standpoint, it’s really a copout. I’m not saying they’re going to be a winner; I’m not saying they’re going to be a loser. They’re the guy who doesn’t get pinned in a triple threat match.

These White Sox are caught in the same predicament as their ’05 World Series adversaries. They are stuck in “No Man’s Land”. Like the Astros, Kenny Williams still believes he has a championship-caliber nucleus. If just three years ago guys like Paul Konerko, Jose Contreras, and Jermaine Dye, amongst others, could be integral elements of a World Series champion, why couldn’t that still be the case today? Naturally, it is an age issue. The vets are reaching ages where sharp declines in performance are to be expected. (See Konerko, Contreras, and Dye’s 2007) But since these veterans are locked into expensive long-term contracts, it forces Williams to keep building on in hopes of a bounceback, through acquisitions of players like Nick Swisher (Expect a huge season!) and Orlando Cabrera (Expect a huge decline!), even though the likelihood of a playoff run isn’t there.

Like the 2004 Red Sox and 2006 Cardinals, the White Sox won the World Series with a very veteran-laden team. Veteran-laden teams are the least likely to build perennial winners because of inevitable performance declines. Plus, in the aftermath of a championship, emotional attachments often affect decision making, making it hard to part ways with popular “winning” players. Unlike Theo Epstein’s handling of the 2004 Red Sox, Williams was fooled by the 2005 playoffs into overrating his team’s chances of competing again in 2006. They became buyers instead of sellers. Not helping matters is the fact that Williams is a believer of old school baseball mantra: Gritty, gutsy veteran players can drive a team to a championship on sheer perseverance. In 2005, the White Sox caught a perfect storm of timely hitting and extremely hot pitching—not because Konerko, Contreras, and Dye are particularly made for October baseball, but because that specific October, they played well enough to become champions. While fans will never forget that championship run, it will ultimately postpone the franchise’s return to success.


18) San Diego Padres, 83–79, (4th place in NL West)

With seventeen teams remaining, we have reached the point where every team left has a realistic shot to make the playoffs. For all the complaints about competitive balance in baseball, this is essentially the same ratio heading into the season as the NFL.

The NL West is going to be baseball’s tightest division. Aside from the pitiable San Francisco Giants, each team could either win the division or finish in 4th place. It’s that close. This season the Padres are the most likely of the bunch to regress. Their lineup has gotten very old, very quickly. Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles would have made a great outfield six or seven years ago. Aside from Adrian Gonzalez, there aren’t any bats that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Khalil Greene hit 27 home runs last year, but his pitiful .292 obp takes away any positive thoughts about his bat.

Luckily, the Padres realize that they are not going to win baseball games by outslugging their opponents. Kevin Towers has done an excellent job picking up building a staff that thrives in the Petco Park confines. Jake Peavy is the reigning Cy Young winner and Chris Young was an All-Star experiencing a breakout year before an injury derailed his 2007 campaign. When pitching at Petco, there might not be a better duo in the league. Amazingly, Greg Maddux is still an effective third starter. After that, the Padres have some trouble. While Randy Wolf still has a strong K/9 rate, he’s not the type of starter that a playoff team would depend on. They took a smart low-risk chance on Mark Prior but at this point, only an extreme optimist could envision him contributing again. If Prior can come back effectively, it will bump the Padres up a few games, possibly putting them right back into the divisional picture. I’m just not counting on that.

17) Cincinnati Reds, 84–78, (3rd place in NL Central)

The Cincinnati Reds are my 2008 sleeper team. They are a team with great high-end prospects in Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto. Throw in starter Edinson Volquez, acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton, and it’s easy to see why Baseball America lists Cincy with the third best farm system, behind Tampa Bay and Boston.

The Reds have plenty of talent at the Major League level as well. Adam Dunn is a consistent 40-HR threat in left field and Brandon Phillips has emerged as one of the game’s elite second basemen. The Reds have an impressive one-two combo at the top of their rotation in Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and youngster Johnny Cueto could become the best of the bunch. The 22-year old righthander is already drawing comparisons to Pedro Martinez, throwing a 98 mph heater with a devastating changeup. (EDIT: In his first start, Cueto one-hit the NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks) The Reds also solidified their bullpen by signing closer Francisco Cordero to a 4-year deal.

If I had any idea what Dusty Baker was thinking, I’d feel much more confident adding a few wins to their total. For now, thoughts of Baker’s managerial style are holding me back. Baker has been reluctant throughout his career to rely on rookies in his everyday lineup. Bruce, baseball’s top prospect, has already been sent to AAA, while Votto is left sharing at bats with Scott Hatteberg at first base. Also, during his tenure with Chicago, Baker’s usage of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior were classic examples of how NOT to manage talented young arms. Is this really the right manager for a team whose future relies heavily on Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez’s right arms? You tell me.

16) Detroit Tigers, 84–78, (2nd place in AL Central, )

---I don’t understand the rationale of building an offensive juggernaut in a pitcher’s ballpark. Wouldn’t that negate any positive effect of a strong lineup?

---They are way too trendy of a pick.

---Pudge Rodriguez sucks, Edgar Renteria will always be a bum, Magglio Ordonez can’t possibly replicate his 2007 season, and Placido Polanco’s not nearly as good defensively as his 0 errors in 2007 would lead you to believe

---Carlos Guillen can rake. He’ll be even better having moved off of shortstop.

---Missing Curtis Granderson is going to kill them. In 2007, Granderson moved himself into Grady Sizemore’s class of elite CF.

---I am not sold on their pitching staff. Justin Verlander has been extremely overworked in his first two seasons that he’s likely to experience some regression this year. Jeremy Bonderman is not what he’s cranked up to be. Kenny Rogers is older than Jesus. Dontrelle Willis is probably going to continue on the downward spiral that his career has been on. They do not have a strong bullpen. Todd Jones should not be closing for a contender. Zumaya and Rodney are still hurt. It’s really not a good staff. Is it manageable if Detroit scores? Sure, and for that reason I expect them to compete. They just won’t make the playoffs.
Part IV tomorrow

Breaking News!!!

After 15 innings, the San Francisco Giants are officially on the scoreboard!!!! Barry Who?!

Season Preview, Part II

25) Kansas City Royals, 72–90, (5th place in AL Central)

Not too long ago, I thought up a silly rule change that would be extremely beneficial to teams like the Kansas City Royals. Every three years, two American League teams get swapped for two National League teams in their divisional counterpart. Sort of like the WWE Draft Lottery, where five superstars get swapped between Raw and Smackdown.

What would this accomplish? Right now, regardless of their decision making, the Royals will always be stuck in AL-Purgatory. The Cold War between the Red Sox and the Yankees cause every other AL team to spend more money to keep up. The average American League payroll was over $90 million in 2007. In the National League, it was slightly higher than $75 million. The NL lacks the megapowers driving up the payrolls of the rest of the league. Teams like the Mets and the Dodgers have the ability to create this effect, but neither team has been consistently good in their decision making of late, so teams aren't forced to spend at the same level to compete them. This makes it much tougher to get out of the AL’s basement.

Now let’s put my rule into effect for 2010. Switch Kansas City with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Wouldn’t it feel like Kansas City’s a little bit closer to relevance? Rather than being nowhere near a playoff spot, you’d start to believe that they are a few moves away from competing for the NL Central or the Wild Card. Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are going to be studs. Joakim Soria solidified himself as a very solid closer, proving to be one of the best Rule-5 draft picks in recent memory. By that time, RHP Luke Hochevar, SS Mike Moutsakas, and their 2008 selection will be joining them. A few more, wise free-agent signings by Dayton Moore, (Gil Meche had a great 2007 and I expect Jose Guillen to do the same, now that he has left Safeco Park) and you have the makings of a very intriguing team. Instead, they’ll hover around AL-mediocrity while Detroit, Cleveland, and Chicago battle it out for the division title. Here’s to swapping the Royals and the Pirates in 2010!! Make it happen, Selig!!

24) Washington Nationals, 73-89, (4th place in NL East)

Heading into last season, most baseball publications predicted the Nationals to be one of the worst teams in MLB history. Under first-year manager Manny Acta, the Nationals outperformed those expectations, finishing at 73-89, good for 4th place in the NL East. Ironically, the Nationals are heading towards the same record and standing in 2008, although they’ve improved their lineup significantly.

Starting with last season’s acquisition of Wily Mo Pena, the Nationals have made a handful of low-risk, high-reward trades for underutilized, “buy-low” outfielders. Lastings Milledge was stolen away from the New York Mets for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider and Elijah Dukes was acquired from Tampa Bay for a lower level pitching prospect. Pena was blocked from getting at-bats in Boston at every possible position (LF, RF, DH), but in Washington, when he returns from injury, he’ll have an opportunity to hit 30-40 home runs as the everyday left fielder. From his short stint as a Red Sox, I’ve never seen a player hit a ball harder or look funnier camping out under a routine fly ball. Enjoy watching this guy, Nationals fans.

Milledge was unfairly labeled as a bad character guy for being young and exciting on an old and boring team. Nothing will make me happier than seeing Milledge blossom into the superstar that scouts think he will become. After Mets fans ostracized him for wearing a big chain and hi-fiving fans after hitting a huge home run, they deserve nothing more than to have Milledge destroy them 19 times a season.

Dukes is the wild card of the bunch. He has had countless run-ins with the law and many believe that he struggled in separating himself from the negative influences from the inner-city, Tampa area he grew up in. But nobody can deny Dukes’s talent. And if relocation is what he needs to get his life on track, he is still young enough (23) to become the premier middle of the order bat that Tampa once envisioned.

Fantasy Hint - Look for Ryan Zimmerman to have a huge season in Nationals Park, solidifying himself as a fixture amongst the offensive superduperstar third basemen in the league. He’s already there defensively. Also, if the at-bats are there, Austin Kearns will have a huge season. No player had his numbers deflated in RFK as much as Kearns did. The offense will be revitalized by moving out of RFK Stadium and into Nationals Park, though the reverse can be said for the pitching staff.

23) Minnesota Twins, 73–89, (4th place in AL Central)

Minnesota’s mismanagement of the offseason has me so frustrated with them that I don’t even want to write anything about their 2008 season. (Not to mention, they are one of the corny teams that I have always disliked.) The Santana trade was a complete blunder and after trading Santana, resigning Joe Nathan made zero sense.
Finding a closer is much easier than finding a starter. That’s why middle-market teams never overpay for one. The Twins could have used Nathan’s money to sign Santana, trade Nathan for prospects, and promote Pat Neshak to closer. Wouldn't this have made more sense? I do think the Twins will be better than people expect, especially if Liriano returns to form and Delmon Young learns how to take a pitch, but they are nowhere near ready to contend. Serves them right, too, after the way their cheapskate owner screwed their fans over this offseason.

22) Oakland Athletics, 73-89, (4th place in AL West)

There are a handful of general managers whose judgment I trust enough to give the benefit of the doubt regardless of my initial impression of their moves. Billy Beane is one of them. While losing two excellent players in the Danny Haren and Nick Swisher trades is never a good thing, there’s no question that the deals have drastically improved the A’s long term well-being. In a recent column on ESPN.com, Rob Neyer had an excellent take regarding Oakland’s decision to rebuild:

“Analytically, Beane had no choice. Last season the A's won 76 games. If they brought back the same team next season, they'd have been lucky to win 86 games, which almost surely wouldn't qualify them for the postseason. Essentially, 85 isn't much better than 75, and if you're going to win 75, you might as well win 65. Assuming, of course, that winning 65 puts you on the road to 95.”

Beane realizes that when you lack the resources of big-market teams, you have to stay ahead of the curve. Given MLB’s economic structure, nothing is worse for a lower market franchise than mediocrity. In order to rejoin the elite, you have to break it down and start from scratch, but most importantly, you must identify the right time to do so. If Oakland keeps Swisher and Haren, are they going to win the AL West? Probably not. Instead, by attacking the rebuilding phase proactively, Beane brought in seven prospects that currently rank amongst Oakland’s top 12. These seven players have a much better chance of contributing to Oakland’s next winning team than Swisher and Haren would have. The same could be said about Rich Harden, Huston Street, and Bobby Crosby, which only tells me that Beane is not through yet. If Harden and Crosby can stay healthy through April, I’d be shocked if Beane didn’t move them. The return that these veterans bring in will do wonders in keeping Oakland competitive when they move into their new ballpark in 2011. 65 wins are not bad if they have you on the road to 95.

21) Houston Astros, 75-87, (4th place in NL Central)

The Astros are the total opposite of the A’s. Whereas Billy Beane correctly identified that his team was unable to compete in 2008, Ed Wade has fooled himself into believing that the Astros are better than they are. Rather than accept his 2008 fate and put his best foot forward for the future, Wade has chosen to add pricey veterans in hopes of defying the odds. This method of thinking never works in baseball and certainly won't work in Houston. All adding Miguel Tejada and Kaz Matsui will accomplish is ensuring Houston of spending more money per loss than they would have otherwise, while delaying any future return to contention. Like the A's, the Astros aren't making the playoffs in 2008 or 2009. But after this offseason's moves, whose roster would you rather have in 2010?

Part III coming soon!!!

Season Preview...Part I

Welcome back everyone! Apparently my failure in assessing the Johan Santana trade market sent me into hibernation for a few weeks, but alas, I am back with some predictions for the 2008 season. Hopefully I'll have better luck this time around so I won’t be too embarrassed to continue posting regularly. Let the countdown begin!!!

30) San Francisco Giants, 58–104, (5th place in NL West)

Nobody deserves their 2008 fate more than the San Francisco Giants. The way that the Giants have abandoned Barry Bonds, the man responsible for the construction of Pac Bell Park (or is it AT&T Park?), is embarrassing. After years of sucking every possible dollar out of him, Brian Sabean throws him to the wolves, even though HE WAS STILL THEIR MOST PRODUCTIVE PLAYER IN 2007!!!! He led the league in on base percentage AGAIN! His OPS was just 20 points lower than the great Alex Rodriguez!

For Sabean to act like he is doing this team a favor by eliminating Bonds from the equation is absolutely absurd. It’s not even like he’s replacing Bonds with a trio of 24 year olds who are pushing their way into the lineup. From left to right, the Giants are starting Dave Roberts, Aaron Rowand, and Randy Winn. It’s inexcusable. The rest of their lineup is atrocious and their farm system is even worse (Angel Villalona, their one elite prospect, is still YEARS away). I feel as if I am doing them a favor by listing them with 58 wins.

Hopefully, the press continues to write all these stories about how great their team chemistry is without Bonds in the middle of June, when the Giants are setting all-time records for ‘earliest date eliminated from playoff picture”. The lone bright spot for the Giants are their pair of young right-handed flamethrowers Tim Lincecum and 2007 winner of the “Pitcher Win-Loss Record Means Absolutely Nothing” Award, and likely back to back recipient in 2008, Matt Cain. Sadly, I don’t even think this duo can save the Giants from 100+ losses.

*$ Hint- Register on bodoglife.com right now and put down everything you own on San Francisco going under. Their win-loss over under is 71 ½. Also, list nxouris38@aol.com as your referral. :)


29) Florida Marlins, 61–101, (5th place in NL East)

If history is any indication, the Marlins are one year away from winning the World Series again. After dismantling their 1997 World Champion team, the Marlins responded six years later with an upset of the New York Yankees for another championship in 2003.

Truthfully, their return to glory is going to take a little bit longer this time around. The Marlins’ big move this offseason sent LHP Dontrelle Willis and 3B Miguel Cabrera to Detroit for six prospects, the most noteworthy being OF Cameron Maybin and LHP Andrew Miller. Miller has frontline starter potential but he has been rushed through the minor leagues to compensate for being awarded a major league contract out of the draft. Maybin, a scout’s dream mixture of tools and performance, still needs more time to develop in the minor leagues before the Marlins can trot him out in center field every day. Plus, it makes no sense to keep his service time running when you have no chance to compete anyway.

One nice thing about the Marlins in comparison to the other lousy teams is that the Marlins might have the best player in baseball in Hanley Ramirez. That’s certainly more than the Giants say. From a storyline standpoint, the most interesting aspect of the Marlins will be watching Ramirez as he approaches arbitration. Will he become the franchise superstar that the Marlins decide to build around when their new park opens in 2011, or will he follow the path of Miguel Cabrera and Josh Beckett before him? On a side note, how sad is it that a question like this is one of the most important things a Marlins fan has to look forward to in 2008? Ouch.

28) Baltimore Orioles 62-100, (5th place in AL East)

The first non Quadruple-A team on the list is the Baltimore Orioles. Like the previous two teams, the Orioles are headed for a last place finish, their first since 1988. However, for the first time in quite a while, I’ve actually been impressed with the Orioles offseason.

Owner Peter Angelos has finally taken a step back from baseball decisions allowing Andy MacPhail to focus on bringing a winning team back to Baltimore. MacPhail’s first goal was to rebuild a decrepit farm system. After landing prize catcher prospect Matt Weiters in last June’s draft, the Orioles traded away Miguel Tejada and Eric Bedard for ten players, the jewel being 22-year-old outfielder Adam Jones. I just don’t understand why they stopped there.

The O’s are filled with experienced veterans who could help out teams in contention—guys like Kevin Millar, Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, and Ramon Hernandez. There’s really no point in holding on to these players since none of them will be around when the Orioles are ready to win again anyway. Brian Roberts has been rumored to be traded to the Chicago Cubs all offseason. The O’s need to pull the trigger already. Millar would be a great fit with the Mets to split time with Delgado at first base and play a little bit of outfield when Alou is out.

If MacPhail can make a couple more of these trades, and continue the emphasis on player development, the Orioles will take a much larger leap back to relevance in the American League. For now, they’re left with a goal for 2008 of not losing 100 games.

27) Pittsburgh Pirates, 68 – 94, (6th place in NL Central)

I watch a lot of baseball. I watch as many Red Sox games as I can, and the MLB Extra Innings package gives me plenty of alternatives during the rest of my free time. However, I can not remember the last time I watched an entire Pittsburgh Pirates game. Last season, I watched at least one full game of every team in the league except for Pittsburgh.

There isn’t a single interesting player on this team and there hasn’t been one since Barry Bonds left. This is a problem for a team that hasn’t had a winning season in 15 years. The Pirates aren’t a franchise like Oakland or Minnesota that has been stacked with talented players but loses them because of the nature of the market. They haven’t developed one decent homegrown everyday player worth building around (And for the record, I’m not sold on Andrew McCutchen either. I’ll pass any chance I can on your typical toolsy outfielder.) There’s no excuse to have a farm system that terrible when you are a perennial loser. You draft near the top every year! You should make the right decision at least once, on sheer luck alone. Sadly, they haven’t.

Last year, before getting fired, ex-GM Dave Littlefield passed on Matt Weiters in the June draft to select a relief pitcher (Dan Moskos) because he didn’t want to pay Weiters the $6 million signing bonus that Scott Boras demanded. Littlefield followed that decision up at the trade deadline by trading two midlevel prospects to San Francisco for Matt Morris, and the $13.7 million left on Morris’s deal. I can’t understand the rationale behind allocating your resources like that. This is the most poorly run organization in the game right now and hopefully for Pirates fans, this will change under the new administration, now that Littlefield has been fired. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny provide the lone bright spots, but even still, can you ever imagine saying to yourself, “Hey Ian Snell’s pitching tonight. I better dip out of work early to catch that one!”? Yea, me neither.

26) St. Louis Cardinals, 71-91, (5th place in NL Central)

For as long as I’ve followed sports, I’ve always had a few random teams that I hated for no reason. Corny teams like the Minnesota Twins during the Brad Radke/Luis Castillo years or the Sacramento Kings during the Peja/CWebb years—they weren’t rivals of my favorite teams, but they annoyed me enough to dislike them.

The 2002-05 St. Louis Cardinals were another one of these teams. Nothing made me happier than seeing them await the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series because I knew it was inevitable that the World Series drought was about to come to an end. There wasn’t a bigger fraud team in MLB during that time period than St. Louis. After the Red Sox swept them and they lost to the Astros the following season, I figured St. Louis’s window of opportunity to win a championship had passed them by.

Sure enough, the unthinkable happened. The 2006 Cardinals, who barely had any business making the playoffs, shocked the world, by defeating the Detroit Tigers in the World Series in dominating fashion. If you Google Billy Beane’s “Postseason is a Crapshoot” theory, the 2006 Cardinals would be Exhibit A. Sadly, that one run of good luck wiped vindicated their failures in the previous postseasons.

Now what does any of this have to do with 2008? Had the Cardinals simply missed the playoffs in 2006, as they should have, they would have responded to the season differently. Their reaction to winning the World Series is the reason why they are going to be lousy this season. Rather than objectively evaluate their 83-win team, and put into place a plan to get back to the 90-win plateau, the Cardinals were fooled by an extremely small sample size into thinking they were a championship caliber team. They believed the performance of a mediocre pitching staff and aging veteran hitters in a 15 game stretch in October was more indicative of their ability than the previous 162 games. This reactive method of managing, one very similar to that of the Chicago White Sox, has set them back a few years, leaving them one of only 5 or 6 NL teams with absolutely no chance of making the playoffs in 2008.

Part II coming tomorrow....

ESPN's Hot Stove Heaters

Pujols or A-Rod? Buchholz or Chamberlain? Santana or Sabathia? On January 10th, ESPN.com introduced its Hot Stove Heaters chat wraps. The premise of the series is simple. Take two similar players and argue over who you'd rather have. There's not much that I enjoy more than a "who would you rather have?" argument, so I've thoroughly enjoyed this series. The 5th installment was posted yesterday, with Jayson Stark asking the following question:

You have to take one shortstop to start your team. And it has to be a guy who will play this entire season at an age younger than 25. (New Yorkers please take note: That ground rule happens to eliminate Jose Reyes from this argument.) So which phenom would you take, Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki?

I'll preface by saying the following: I love Hanley Ramirez. He's one of the most uniquely talented offensive players of all time. There's a chance that when people look back on the 2010's, Ramirez is remembered as the best all-around offensive player of the decade. But for all of Ramirez's offensive prowess, there's just no telling if he can continue playing shortstop. For the second straight year, Ramirez has turned in a horrific defensive season. In 2007, Ramirez posted the lowest fielding percentage (.963) and zone rating (.786) of any NL shortstop, numbers that coincidentally match his 2006 numbers exactly. As the quarterback of the infield, this does not go unnoticed. Rumors of moving Ramirez to center field have quieted since Florida acquired Cameron Maybin, but if Ramirez doesn't show any improvement in 2008, the discussions will have to be revisited.

Tulowitzki is a remarkable talent in his own right. What Ramirez is accomplishing at the plate, Tulowitzki is matching on the field. In 2007, Tulowitzki put together one of the finest defensive seasons of all time. (561 assists, 5.31 range factor, 8.66 zone rating) The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up was robbed of a Gold Glove award, as the baseball writers once again proved their incompetence by selecting a well-inferior Jimmy Rollins. Tulo is no slouch as the plate either. From May 1st on, Tulowitzki hit .298 with 22 HR and 89 RBI. Not to mention, he helped lead the improbable Rockies run to the World Series. Not bad for a 22 year old!

The only concern I have about Tulo is the huge disparity in his home/road splits. (HOME: .326/.392.568, ROAD: .256/.327/.393.) It is always noteworthy when a player slugs 170 points higher at home, especially when home is Coors Field. While it's not the offensive asylum it was in past seasons, Coors still ranks third in run scoring according to ESPN.com's park factors. In Tulo's defense, it's a very small sample but something to keep an eye on in 2008 and beyond.

If I had to choose, although fantasy baseball fanatics would argue otherwise, I'd take Tulowitzki. Judging by each player's WARP (wins above replacement player) in 2007, you really can't go wrong with either player. (Ramirez posted an 8.9, Tulo posted an 8.5) What Ramirez lacks in defense, he makes up for on offense. What Tulo lacks in offense, he makes up for in defense. However, one of the keys to the argument is which SHORTSTOP would you rather have. And if there's still uncertainty that Ramirez can play shortstop 2-5 years from now, that plays a large factor in the discussion. Tulo, on the other hand, has developed a defensive reputation that mirrors the Visquel's and Ozzie's of the world, with statistics that actually back it up (561 assists, over 100 more than the next SS). It's definitely too early to tell who the better player is, but this is the type of debate that makes it so great to be a baseball fan.

Set your alarm clocks....

Major League Baseball has announced that Opening Day in Japan against Oakland will start at 6:07am EST. Something tells me I'll be late to work that day.

For those keeping score at home...

According to ESPN.com, the Yankees have officially pulled Phil Hughes from their offer for Johan Santana. I'm not sure of the exact number, but if I ventured to guess, I'd say this is somewhere between the 203rd and 207th update in regards to the trade's status. Guess what? Nobody cares anymore. I understand what the Steinbrothers are trying do, but it's getting old. If Hank's winter meeting deadline proved anything, it's that Bill Smith is not going to fall victim to New York's bullying. His entire tenure as Minnesota GM will be judged on this one trade. Rushing a move, just to make a deal will serve him no good.

That being said, this 'news' serves some good as it gives me an excuse to comment on the Johan Santana sweepstakes. The three most important elements to a Santana deal are: Urgent need for a bonafide ace, Willingness to deal major-league ready prospects, and the ability to sign Santana to a long-term extension.

Right now, there are three teams being discussed as possible destinations. Boston, New York A, and New York B. And assuming that the Twins are not silly enough to hold on to him, there's really only 1 destination that makes total sense for both teams.

The Pretender

The Mets - No matter what Omar Minaya and the New York Post would like you to believe, the Mets are not a player in the Johan Santana derby. They might make a few headlines, and they might even force the Yankees or the Red Sox to throw in an Austin Jackson or a Ryan Kalish. However, when it comes down to it, the Mets just won't have what it takes to get a deal done. There is absolutely no way the Twins accept a package without a five-star prospect coming their way, or at the very least a handful of very good ones. The Mets seem to be of the belief that their package of mediocre quantity is better than quality. Forget the Red Sox and Yankees. The Mets can't even put together a better deal than the Dodgers or Angels, two teams who have been rather quiet on the Santana front.

I'm sure Carlos Gomez will be a decent baseball player one day, maybe even a notch or two better than Alex Escobar. And if Carlos Silva can get 40 million dollars to throw league average innings, then Philip Humber might not be such a terrible alternative. But these are not the players that you can sell a fanbase on after trading the best pitcher in baseball. The truth is, the Mets' farm system is just not good enough to bring in a player of Santana's stature. Their best talent is nowhere near major league ready. As high as people are on Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra, you're still talking about 19 year old kids. Most of their other prospects, mainly Mike Pelfrey and Humber, lost a lot of their luster following underwhelming performances at the major league level. The same thing happened to Lastings Milledge, and we all saw the return that Milledge brought in. I commend the Mets for putting in the effort, but if you only have $12,000 in your pocket, no Mercedes dealership is going to let you buy a 2008 C-Class just because you really need a Benz.

What must happen for the Mets to land Johan Santana:
The Red Sox and Yankees admit that they were bluffing all along, and that neither team ever really wanted Santana, and Minaya works out a deal with Smith while both Los Angeles GMs are unknowingly vacationing together somewhere.

II. The Contender

The Boston Red Sox - If the Red Sox wanted Santana, the press conference would have taken place already. It's that simple. No other team in baseball has the combination of excessive high-end major league ready, minor league talent that Minnesota needs along with the resources to ink Santana to a lucrative extension. What the Red Sox are missing is urgency. If this was January 11th, 2004, Santana would be in a Boston uniform. But after winning two World Series in four seasons, the Red Sox no longer need to rush into this type of move. They already have a bonafide ace. Josh Beckett came into his own in 2007 and is arguably the best right handed pitcher in baseball today. For once the Red Sox have built a team around strong pitching. Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, and Jon Lester are each under 30 years old, and if anyone out of the Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Daniel Bard group pan out, the Red Sox will continue to have one of the best rotations in the league. The pieces are in place for the Red Sox to be a very good team for a very long time. Tinkering with the organizational philosophy that Epstein has put into place will only hurt the Red Sox in the long run.

Honestly, I'd feel much more comfortable with Epstein figuring out a way to get Jed Lowrie's bat into the lineup (Who wants Julio? Any takers?) than exploring a deal that would send 5 prospects Minnesota's way, for a pitcher who you'll be paying a premium for the decline phase of his career. Now if Minnesota has any interest in a Bowden, Bard, Coco Crisp and Jason Place package....

What must happen for the Red Sox to land Santana:
A) Theo Epstein wakes up one day and decides that he's not just driving up New York's price and that he really does want Johan Santana
or
B) The Twins get fed up with the Steinbrothers' antics and accept an offer like the one I just made up just to spite New York. (0.00001%)

I'm just not sold on the Red Sox trading away 6 or 7 years of Jon Lester, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Jed Lowrie for one season of Santana + the right to buy 5-7 more seasons of a 30+ year old pitcher at a record setting contract with peripheral stats trending in the wrong direction.

III. The Destination

The New York Yankees - The Yankees are the one team whose desire for an ace matches their ability to deliver the talent that Minnesota needs in return. While the Yankees have a little less to offer than Boston, they do have a substantial urgency to get a trade done. Watching Josh Beckett dominate this postseason for their arch nemesis, while the Yankees extended their championship drought, proved just how important a shut down ace of that caliber is. As long as Chien Ming Wang is headlining the Yankees' rotation, the Yankees will be entering a 5 or 7 game series at a disadvantage. Joba Chamberlain will eventually become that guy, but for a team that dealt out $400 million dollars worth of contract extensions this offseason, the Yankees can not afford to wait it out.

Adding Santana to a rotation slides both Wang and Chamberlain down a slot and turns their rotation from an uncertainty to a strength, one that could compete with Boston's. Giving up Hughes is not easy, but realistically speaking, he's the only tough piece to let go of. Melky Cabrera is a glorified 4th outfielder whose flashy, strong arm in center field has caused his weak bat to be vastly overrated by the New York fans. Ian Kennedy and his command, control, makeup, and whatever other words that scouts toss around for pitchers without front-end stuff seems better suited for the NL Central than the brutally grinding lineups of the AL East.

The Red Sox are the defending World Champions. The ball is in New York's court. If neither team makes the trade, the Red Sox still enter 2007 as the favorites. If New York makes the Santana deal, they step back into the championship contender conversation. It would certainly hurt the Yankees much more if Boston gets Santana than it would hurt Boston if the Yankees were make the deal. I think that by April, that fear will cause the Steinbrothers to pull the trigger.

As for the Mets? Something tells me Joe Blanton is available.

Welcome!

Welcome to the MLB Warning Track Power blog. This place will serve as my little collection of each and every thought I have regarding all things baseball. I hope you enjoy!